Challenges and solutions Knut H. Alfsen CICERO Center for Internastional Climate and Environmental Research - Oslo Oslo,

2 Issues to be covered We do have a problem We are responsible The scale of the challenge Solutions: The need for technology Why technology alone is not enough

3 The long lines

4 Global average temperature 0,74 °C above pre-industrieal level

5 POTENTIAL DAMAGE The 2 target: Why?

6 Water shortage

7 7 How to achieve the Climate sensitivity How to achieve the 2 target? Climate sensitivity

8 8 How to achieve the How to achieve the 2 target? Emissions

Status: Emissions… 2007

10 Future emissions Lower than today’s emissions 3 times today’s emissions

11 Future temperatures 2 degree Celsius

12 A distorted world  Rich countries: 16 tCO 2 -e per year and person  Poor countries: 4 tCO 2 -e per year and person  Assume: ◦50% reduction in global emissions ◦equal per capita emissions (with today’s population)  Then: ◦Rich countries must reduce by 82% ◦Poor countries must reduce by 6% Zero emission society Aim: Zero emission society! TodayTomorrow 50% reduction

13 Technology: The twin challenge

14 Phoenix vs Singapore and the need for “technology” 4 times higher energy use per capita in Phoenix than in Singapore

15 Public support for energy research in IEA countries Oil bill: ~1 700 bill. €  R&D ~0,5%! Subsidies for fossil: US$ 250 bill. Oil bill: ~1 700 bill. €  R&D ~0,5%! Subsidies for fossil: US$ 250 bill.

16 Two reasons to be critical to the path followed so far International negotiations, without realistic enforcement, cannot result in necessary reductions (cf. the Kyoto process). Time inconsistency: The carbon market is governed by the the government. --- It is improbable that market based mechanisms can deliver necessary investments in technology development.  Direct public support for technology development is necessary.

17 A role for Europe: What is a sensible climate policy?  Contribute to global reductions. In other words: ◦1) Make it cheaper to reduce emissions. ◦2) Prove that a sustainable society is possible without substantial emissions of greenhouse gases.  How to secure this? ◦1) Invest in climate friendly technologies where we have comparative advantages. ◦2) Reduce our own emissions. ---  A genuine threat against this is to finance low technology emission reductions abroad.

18 Why technology alone is not enough Is the problem serious? PopulationPoliticians

19 19 Thank you for your attention!