A tool for improved space weather predictions: the CME expansion speed. Max-Planck-Institut für Aeronomie Katlenburg-Lindau Germany Instituto Nacional.

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Presentation transcript:

A tool for improved space weather predictions: the CME expansion speed. Max-Planck-Institut für Aeronomie Katlenburg-Lindau Germany Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais Sao Jose dos Campos - SP Brazil A. Dal Lago, R. Schwenn Sept., 2001

Space Weather Geophysical Research Letters / 15 July 1998

Space Weather Shock

Space Weather Shock Sun: EIT / CME Earth: geomagnetic storm L1: shock - sheath - magnetic cloud

Coronal Mass Ejections - CME Limb Halo LASCO C2LASCO C3EIT 195LASCO C2LASCO C3EIT 195

Coronal Mass Ejections - CME Limb CME Halo CME LASCO C2LASCO C3

Acceleration/Deceleration of CMEs Sept. 28, 1997 LASCO C2

Acceleration/Deceleration of CMEs Sept. 28, 1997 LASCO C3

Acceleration/Deceleration of CMEs S85W

Acceleration/Deceleration of CMEs July 25, 1999 S85W S75E S85ES70WS55W LASCO C3

Halo CMEs from Jan to Apr. 2001

Halo CMEs and Interplanetary association Sun: EIT / CME Earth: geomagnetic storm L1: shock - sheath - magnetic cloud

Interplanetary signatures and CME association Sun: EIT / CME Earth: geomagnetic storm L1: shock - sheath - magnetic cloud

Halo CMEs and geomagnetic storms Sun: EIT / CME Earth: geomagnetic storm L1: shock - sheath - magnetic cloud

CME expansion speed Vexp Vrad Vpr LASCO C3

Vexp Vrad Limb CMEs 57 events from 1997 to 2001 Criterion: EIT 195 activity close to the limb (maximum 30 deg.).

Halo CMEs Frontal speed x travel timeExpansion speed x travel time Vexp Vpr Vfr

Halo CMEs Frontal speed x travel timeExpansion speed x travel time Vexp Vpr Vfr

Full halos only Ago. 25 th 2001

LASCO C2LASCO C3EIT 195

Solwind CMEs and Helios 1 Solwind coronagraph Helios degr. Period: events - 45 where Vcme and Vip were possible to be obtained.

Solwind and Helios 1 Vexp Vcme Helios1 Solwind: Vcme Vexp Solwind + Helios: travel time - avg. propagation speed - travel time to 1 AU 1 AU

Expansion speed x shock speed at 1AU

Propagation speed x shock speed at 1AU

Conclusions Limb CMEs show a linear relation between Vexp and Vrad There is a good correlation found between the expansion speed (Vexp) of halo CMEs and the travel time to 1 AU. The halo expansion speed (Vexp) can now be used to predict the travel time of CMEs. There is still substantial uncertainty, indicating that processes occurring during the “trip” of the CMEs from the sun to 1 AU may play an important whole. 4 out of 81 full front side halo CMEs never reachead the earth - false alarms! 12 out of 146 transient IP shocks were not related to any CME - prediction missed! 1 out of 30 intense storms and 4 out of 78 moderate storms were not related to any CME - storm prediction missed! All very intense (Dst<-200 nT) were related to halo CMEs.