of Europe to Climate Change Vulnerability, impacts and adaptation of Europe to Climate Change The JRC research framework in support to EU CC policy Carlo Lavalle European Commission – Joint Research Centre e-mail: carlo.lavalle@jrc.it

EU Climate Change Policy at the lowest cost & greatest benefit. Reducing Climate Change Risk by MITIGATION + ADAPTATION Reducing & Avoiding GHG emissions Reducing Exposure & Vulnerability at the lowest cost & greatest benefit. Within the frame work of its mission, the JRC aims to develop reference knowledge, based on multi-disciplinary expertise, to ease the development of an EU climate change policy.

Adaptation: What can be done? Understanding and prediction of Climate Change. Special attention to extrem events Quantification of impacts at the continental, regional, and local levels (risk analysis) Historical trend analyses Data modelling Coupling with Regional Climate Models Analysis of adaptation measures strategies to prevent and reduce impacts and damages Management and preparedness (include modelling and scenario preparation). Focus on early warning systems Integration of all aspects related to adaptation to climate change into strategies for sustainable development.

Risk assessment for Natural Hazards The Approach Risk = hazard x exposure x vulnerability Exposure Population Infrastructure Settlements Ecological assets …. Vulnerability Hazard Hazard degree Flood Drought Forest Fires Heatwaves GDP/ capita Planning regulations Protection measures Warning systems Insurance mechanism Access to facilities … Method of analysis Risk

EU Flood Risk Maps Exposure Vulnerability flood hazard Flood depth maps for different return-periods High Flood Risk Areas Annual Average Damage Flood Risk Index

EU Forest Fire Risk Maps About 65,000 wildfires / year in EU About 500,000 hectares burned / year in EU Data from Member States (the EU Forest Fire Data Base, built upon the Common Core Database) + Model (European Forest Fire Information System) + Observed fires (remote sensing)

Vulnerable Population Exposure Heatwave Risk Map Heatwave Extent + Population Exposed + Population Number Vulnerable Population Group Vulnerable Population Exposure No. of people over 65 years exposed to HUMIDEX exceeding 35 during June, July and August 2003

European Drought Hazard Maps very wet very dry wetter drier normal Soil Water Stress from ECMWF ERA 40 meteo data 07/1957-06/2002 daily top soil moisture daily top soil moisture anomaly

Impacts on Agriculture Shift of flowering season Growing season lenght

Assessing future risks Flood & drought risk and climate change exposure vulnerability high-resolution climate information x European data on soils, land cover, river basins, ... flood hazard European study on flood risk and climate change at JRC. Developed an integrated framework that combines high-resolution regional climate data provided by DMI and MPI with the spatially distributed physically-based hydrological model LISFLOOD to derive flood hazard. The model is fed with European datasets on soil data, land cover and river catchments, and data from MS on river dimensions, reservoirs, etc. The flood hazard map is then combined with information about the vulnerability and exposure to derive current and future flood risk. What information used for vulnerability (now and ideally)? Scenarios for vulnerability? What information used for exposure (now and ideally)? Scenarios for exposure? How are the three terms actually combined? Simple product? We do not intend to provide same level of detail as MS (because this is foreseen in the Floods Directive), but try to draw up an overall picture at the European scale using a uniform method. LISFLOOD = flood risk Member States data on river dimensions, discharges, ...

Climate change effect on river discharge: annual average and 100-year floods seasonal changes in mean discharge Simulations with LISFLOOD driven by HIRHAM – HadAM3H/ HadCM3 (data from Prudence, DMI)

Climate change effect on low flows: change of mean annual 7-day minimum discharge Simulations with LISFLOOD driven by HIRHAM – HadAM3H/ HadCM3 (data from Prudence, DMI)

Forest Fire Danger Fire Severity Index (Climate data from Prudence – DMI)

Climate Change Hazard: Heat Wave Control Period 1961-1990 Scenario Period 2071-2100 Heat wave event defined by HWDI of 7 continuous days during summer period Based on data from Danish Climate Centre (DMI) within the framework of the EU-project PRUDENCE

Monetary impacts of Climate Change Scenarios Change in annual precipitation Simulated flooded areas Flooded areas statistics Cost estimation made per land use classes, using approx. deoth-damage curves Next steps: include land use simulations and adaptation measures Tentative estimate upper Danube: Current Climate: 100 Billion Euro damage A2 Scenario ~40% increase in total damage Pilot area in the Upper Danube – Preliminary draft results

Forest vulnerability and suitability Current and future habitat suitability distribution of European Common Beech (Fagus sylvatica, Fagaceae) Regression tree Analysis – Vegetation suitability model IPCC SRES A1B Scenario, 2000 - 2100 vegetation shift projection under 710ppm CO2 , +2.8ºC Preliminary draft results

The aim of adaptation: Reduce the risk Hazard p =1 (100yr) Vulnerability Risk + = Adaptation Low vulnerability Low risk

Integrated land management tools >10 years 5 years 1-2 years 3-30 days Few hours Alert Early Warning Forecast Regulatory plans Spatial Planning Forest Management Land Management EFFIS EFAS EDO MOLAND LISFLOOD EFICS EFAS=European Flood Alert System EDO=European Drought Observatory EFICS=European Forest Inform. and Comm. System EFFIS=European Forest Fire Information System MOLAND=Monitoring Land Use Dynamics LISFLOOD=Grid-based catchment model Component of EU Forest Focus Territorial Integration

European Flood Alert System EFAS Expert Knowledge of Member States EU Flood GIS Europ. Data Layers Meteo -Data Realtime H-Q data Historical Data Static Data EFAS Reports min area = 50 km²

Soil moisture 7 day trend EDO European Drought Observatory Soil moisture 7 day trend wetter drier

Floods and scenario modeling Elbe catchment Land use Reference Land Use Polders Reservoirs 10% reduction

European Forest Fire Information System EFFIS Meteorological Risk Vegetation Stress Risk Structural Risk Fire Potential Index

Damage assessment Floods and industrial installations Forest Fires and NATURA 2000 sites

Conclusions – Next steps at JRC Key Scientific Challenges: include other SRES scenarios and RCMs better quantification of current and future vulnerability development of high-resolution land use scenarios model validation with high-quality observations & data sets formal treatment of uncertainty in the processing chain Opportunities: Direct inputs to EU policies (e.g. White paper on adaptation) Participation in experts’ networks Collaboration with MS organisations