S&T and Japan Edward Lincoln For presentation at University of Illinois April 3, 2008

Background  Japan as a successful absorber of technology from the world, 1870s-1970s.  Emphasis on math and engineering in education rather than science  Emphasis on scouring the world for technology  Assisted by government trade policy  Pressure to spread technology at home rather than protect (licensing policy and joint R&D projects).

Success implies a new environment 1980s to the present  “catch up” over  Implies a need to generate more technology within the corporation  Greater interest in protecting technology  A need to refocus education toward science to underpin development of new commercial technology So what has been happening?

Preview:  Japan certainly a major player in global technology  But not as dominant as one might think  Concerns over “productivity” of spending on R&D  Concerns about how to alter the education system  Concerns about how to enhance university- business partnerships

R&D spending has been rising:

Japan has more technology to export:

Or, tech trade more narrowly (apparently):

But still lags in basic research expenditures:

And no change in low emphasis on science education: Science and Engineering Degrees as a Percentage of Total B.S., M.A., and Ph.D.s Japan (total enrollment)United States (degrees awarded) YearScienceEngineeringScienceEngineering BSMSPhDBSMSPhDBSMSPhDB.S.MSPhD

A strong player in patenting tech in US, but little relative change in 20 years:

No change past decade in production of S&E articles:

Essence of the Japan puzzle: more R&D but less impact:

And once dominant global share in electronics slipping:

Why?  Difficult to reform education toward “creativity.”  Rigid university systems with little competition for research money or peer review of research results.  Little industry-university cooperation  Little commercialization of university research  Government sponsored joint R&D centers stifle alternative approaches  Language barriers inhibiting more extensive international collaboration

Responses:  National university reform 2003 (more competition, peer review, independence). Is it working?  More Japanese educated abroad? Numbers falling past 10 years (currently 35,000)  More scholars spending time in U.S.? Stagnant or falling numbers since  Efforts to enhance spin-off of university research into new businesses

Still little corporate financing of university research: Sources of University Research Funds ¥ billionshare Total University research3,274 Own funds1, Government Corporations872.7 Non-profits280.9

Contrast:  Total University research spending: Japan, 2004: ¥3.2 trillion = $30 billion U.S., 2005: $49 billion  Corporate financing role: Japan: 2.7 percent U.S.5.0 percent

University-business connections:  1998 law establishes technology licensing offices for universities (enabling universities to own technology created by government funds.  2001 government plan to push “technology parks” and a goal for 100 spin-off companies from universities by 2005 (goal reached)  Kyoto area exhibits some success in university spin-offs (e.g. in biotechnology)

Conclusion  Japan doing OK but not great. Spending on R&D up but productivity falling.  Model still based mainly on efforts within large corporations rather than on vibrant universities and start-up businesses  Venture capital market remains poorly developed  Labor markets still less flexible than in U.S.  Does Japan really need more emphasis on basic science? Maybe not.