September 14, 2013SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUPSlide 1 INITIAL CONDITION 13 th September 2013 Extended range prediction during 2013 season Extended range prediction during 2013 season Using Ensemble Prediction System based in CFSv2 And GFSv2 forced with Bias corrected CFSv2 forecasted SST

September 14, 2013SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUPSlide 2  Forecast shows that rainfall activity is likely to be near normal over the country and likely to be near normal to above normal over Central India after one week.  Real time forecast for MISO shows that associated convective activity will be over Central India for the next 10 days and likely to propagate towards North India and Foothills of Himalaya. Key points from the present analysis

September 14, 2013SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUPSlide 3 Methodology And forecast

September 14, 2013SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUPSlide 4  Ocean and Atmospheric Initial conditions (IC) are obtained from NCEP.  Technique was developed to perturb ICs to generate 11 members. (Abhilash et al., 2013)  Model has been integrated for 45 days for each 11 ICs at five day intervals starting from 16th May (Eg: 16May, 21May, 26May, 31May, 05Jun etc). Climatology has been calculated from 10-year hindcast climatology.  Bias correction in daily forecasted SST from CFSv2 for each lead time has been done by removing the daily mean bias for corresponding lead time (model climatology-observed climatology) from forecasted daily SST. (Sahai et al., 2013; Abhilash et al., 2013) Strategy: Ensemble Prediction using CFS/GFSv2 (T126)

September 14, 2013SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUPSlide 5 FORECAST FROM CFSv2(T126) And Bias Corrected GFS2(T126) Based on IC 13 th September 2013

September 14, 2013SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUPSlide 6 Daily evolution of rainfall and wind at 850hPa [CFS forecast based on IC=13 Sep 2013]

September 14, 2013SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUPSlide 7 Daily evolution of rainfall and wind at 850hPa GFS forecast forced with bias corrected CFS forecasted SST based on IC=13 Sep 2013

September 14, 2013SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUPSlide 8 Daily evolution of vorticity and wind at 200hPa [CFS forecast based on IC=13 Sep 2013]

September 14, 2013SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUPSlide 9 Daily evolution of vorticity and wind at 200hPa GFS forecast forced with bias corrected CFS forecasted SST based on IC=13 Sep 2013

September 14, 2013SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUPSlide 10 Daily evolution of vorticity at 850hPa, mslp [CFS forecast based on IC=13 Sep 2013]

September 14, 2013SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUPSlide 11 Daily evolution of vorticity at 850hPa, mslp GFS forecast forced with bias corrected CFS forecasted SST based on IC=13 Sep 2013

September 14, 2013SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUPSlide 12 CFS forecast based on IC=13 Sep 2013

September 14, 2013SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUPSlide 13 GFSbc forecast based on IC=13 Sep 2013

September 14, 2013SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUPSlide 14 CFS-GFS Forecast Over Homogenous Regions MZI, CEI, NEI, NWI & SPI

September 14, 2013SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUPSlide 15 CFS

September 14, 2013SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUPSlide 16 GFSbc

September 14, 2013SEASONAL AND EXTENDED RANGE PREDICTION GROUPSlide 17 MISO monitoring and forecast for next 25 days CFS GFSbc