21 th North America/Europe Data Exchange Meeting Asheville September 17-19, 2008 Status report Hervé Roquet (CMS/RetD) Bruno Lacroix (DPrévi/COMPAS) With contributions from CNRM/GMAP Outlines Operational suite(s) –current configurations –last changes Use of data Issues under development –AROME Future Plans

Computing platform Configuration NEC phase 1 NEC SX8 (Q4 2006) 32 nodes of 8 processors 2 machines: Operations 16 nodes since 9 th May 2007 Research 16 nodes 9.1 Tflops max 4 Terabytes memory 36 Terabytes shared disk RAID5 (GFS) Next step phase 2 Q4 2008

Global model up to 102H at 00UTC (cut off 2H20), 72H at 06 (3H), 84H at 12UTC(1H50), 60H at 18UTC (3H) ARPEGE global spectral model T L 538 C2.4 L60  60 levels, from 17m to 5Pa, horizontal resolution from 15km to 87km  Linear grid with T360 C2.4 orography (1080x540 pts)  8 processors for ARPEGE forecast (10’ for 24H forecast) 4DVAR assimilation :  2 loops of minimization T107 C1 L46 (25 it.), T224 (30 it.)  18 processors for assimilation (40’ between cut-off and P0) data used:  SYNOP, SHIP, BUOY, AIREP, AMDAR, ACARS, TEMP, PILOT  CMW winds GOES 11, 12 + Meteosat 7, 9 + MTSAT-1R, Modis  SEVIRI radiances (Meteosat 9)  AMI (ERS2), Seawinds (Quikscat) and ASCAT (Metop) winds  HIRS, AMSU-A, AMSU-B/MHS NOAA15, 16, 17, 18, Metop & AQUA  SSM/I (DMSP F13 and F14), AIRS AQUA, GPS ZTD, GPS RO, IASI (Metop)  SST 0.5 degree from NCEP/NESDIS + SSM/I sea ice mask Models configuration

Horizontal resolution

Vertical levels

Models configuration (follow-up) Regional model up to D2 06UTC (at 00, 06, 12 and 12UTC)  ALADIN spectral limited area model  9.5 km resolution on 2740kmx2740km domain, 60 levels (289x289 pts)  3DVAR data assimilation: same data as ARPEGE plus SEVIRI HR radiances  Many coupling files Tropical model 72H range at 00 and 12 UTC  ARPEGE uniform model (T L 539 C1 L60) ~37km  No own data assimilation (interpolation of stretched model analysis)  Short Range Ensemble Prediction System 102H range  11 runs ARPEGE T L 358 C2.4 L55 (23 to 133km)  Based on singular vector perturbation

Short range ensemble Forecast (ARPEGE) 56 singular vectors computed on the globe: 16 TL TL 44 Optimization time window : 0-12h Evolving perturbations on 24H window (breeding) Error statistics of the day VS P i 10 … … P24

Mean and spread for a 0H forecast – Z500 (dam) PEARP OPER PEARP /01/2007

Assimilation/Forecast Suites  Operational suites Atmospheric models: –Global stretched, very short cutoff (1H05) with 3DVAR FGAT (00 UTC only) –Limited-Area ALADIN La Réunion 3100x4600km with 3DVAR assimilation, several research, commercial and transportable dynamical adaptation versions  Chemical Transport Model MOCAGE, Forecasts of air quality up to 96H –3 domains:Global/Europe/France, horizontal resolutions: 4°, 0.5°, 0.1° –Observations currently only used for validation  Ocean Wave Models, Forecasts up to 102H –Global (2), Europe, France, horizontal resolutions: 1°, 1°, 0.25°, 0.1° –assimilate Jason-1 and Envisat altimeter wave height data

Changes in ARPEGE and ALADIN-France : data from Metop-A (AMSU-A et MHS), GPS Radio-occultation (COSMIC-1-6, CHAMP, GRACE A/B), AMI (ERS-2) winds : enhanced horizontal and vertical resolution T538- L60, variational bias correction + ASCAT (Metop-A) winds : IASI, SSM/I F14, statistics from ensemble assimilation cycle (6 members 3D-VAR with T359C1L60 forecast)

SIGMAB’s « CLIMATOLOGY » SIGMAB’s « OF THE DAY » 8 dec 2006 r0

Evolution RMSE Z500 Europe Steady improvement over 20 years

Telecom and data received (files) links to Toulouse relevant to US/Europe data exchange: Daily volume of satellite data files received from Exeter : HIRS NOAA16, 17 AMSU-A NOAA15, 16, 18, AQUA AMSU-B/MHS from NOAA15, 16, 18: 500 Mbytes SSM/I and IS from DMSP F13, F14 and F16: 280 Mbytes Seawind from Quikscat240 Mbytes AIRS from Aqua500 Mbytes total 1.5 Go from Exeter

Recent advances in the use of observations in the French NWP models L. Auger, N. Fourrié, É. Gérard, V. Guidard, F. Karbou, P. Moll, T. Montmerle, C. Payan, P. Poli, F. Rabier Météo-France/CNRS, Toulouse, France

New operational developments September 2006: 20 stratospheric AIRS channels SSM/I F13 and F15 Ground-based GPS data over Europe September 2007: GPS radio-occultation ATOVS on MetOp (AMSU-A, MHS) ERS scatterometer 10m wind over land in Aladin February 2008: Variational Bias Correction for radiances ASCAT assimilation June 2008: HIRS on Metop, SSM/I F14 Emissivity parametrisation over land for micro-wave CSR Meteosat IASI

(1) Averaged emissivities (atlas): using 2 weeks prior to the assimilation period; Ts is taken from the model’ FG. averaged emissivities for ch3 and ch16 are given to Temperature and humidity channels (2) Dynamically estimated emissivities (instantaneous): derived at each pixel using only one channel (or two) of each instrument; derived at each pixel using only one channel (or two) of each instrument; Ts is taken from the model FG. Ts is taken from the model FG. (3) Averaged emissivities + dynamically estimated skin temperature: Ts at each pixel using one (or two) channel of each instrument Ts at each pixel using one (or two) channel of each instrument All surface parameterizations are handled by the RTTOV model (Eyre 1991; Saunders et al. 1999; Matricardi et al. 2004) Three land surface parameterizations with increasing complexity (Karbou et al. 2006) AMSU frequency (GHz) Humidity (x3) Temperature (x11)Surface (x5) Ch1Ch15 &16 Ch17Ch2Ch3 Land schemes for data assimilation Land schemes for data assimilation

Observation operator simulations 50.3 GHz Ch 3 AMSU-A Control ATLASEMIS-DYNATLAS+SKIN 89 GHz Ch15 AMSU-A 150 GHz Ch 2 AMSU-B Emissivity at 23 GHz is used, bias could be corrected with an emissivity frequency interpolation First guess departures (obs-guess) global histograms, August 2005 RMS error reduction (EXP_DYN): AMSUA ch2 (-54%), ch3 (-29%), ch4 (-12%), ch5 (-2.5%)

Impact studies during summer 2006 Impact studies during summer 2006 Overview: -Period: from 15 July to 15 September Many Experiments: - Different schemes to estimate the land emissivity and/or the skin temperature - AMSU-A, AMSU-B, SSM/I - Progressive assimilation of surface sensitive channels -Preliminary Results: CTL/ EXP1 ( dynamic estimation of  for AMSU, assimilation of same channels as CTL) EXP1 / CTL, 18 days statistics AMSU-A, N-Hemis, NOAA16 Similar results for AMSU-B No degradation of the fit to the other observations +35% +32 % +22%

19 Number of assimilated data, AMSU-A channel 7, August 2006 Reference Emissivity dynamically estimated from Ch3

Assimilation of MSG SEVIRI Clear Sky Radiances 10.8  m channel Associated percentage of cloud free  CSR product from Meteosat- 8/-9 (MSG/MSG-2)  Hourly product  Assimilation of –2 WV channels in 4D-Var  250 km thinning CSR

Assimilation of MSG SEVIRI Clear Sky Radiances 96h forecast scores (forecast – obs) wrt synop data (precipitation) with SEVIRI CSR without SEVIRI CSR rmse bias  précip [mm]no of obs 2007 large reduction of rms error

IASI assimilation: general features  Level 1C radiances are received via EumetCast in Toulouse (whole BUFR including 8461 channels)  A subset of 314 channels is retained in the Operational Observational Data Base (commonly chosen with other NWP centres)‏  Radiances are bias corrected using VarBC  Data selection: –Cloud detection is based on a channel ranking method from ECMWF McNally & Watts (2003) –First-guess check –Geographical thinning: average distance between 2 obs. is 250 km

Current IASI operational use (1)  The whole subset of 314 channels is monitored in ARPEGE  Assimilation operational since July 2008 Monitoring for 22 October 2007 analysis time of 18 UTC

Current IASI operational use (2)  50 channels are actively assimilated, only over sea (peaking between 100 hPa and 620 hPa)‏ 13 august 2007 analysis time of 00Z obs. minus analysis for channel #219 (699,50 cm-1) peaking at ~200 hPa brightness temp. (K)‏

Information content: DFS 1000-> >90 90->0.1 hPa Radios. & Prof Aircraft Surface GPSRO AIRS, IASI Bright. Temp SATWIND

Other developments  Cloudy AIRS/IASI –Cloud detection (Polar areas, A. Bouchard) –Assimilation of cloudy radiances (T. Pangaud)  SEVIRI used as images in the assimilation (Y. Michel)  Cloudy/rainy SSM/I data for tropical cyclones (R. Montroty)  Observation operator adapted for fine-scale analysis (F. Duffourg)

Data monitoring User/password available upon request

Increase of observation number H. Bénichou Since July 2008, more than 2 million data per day

Evolution in managed/used data ratio 75% satellite data / 25% in situ data used

AMDAR data 109 Air France planes

Wind profilers network La Ferté Vidame available on GTS Nice, Marignane, Clermont- Ferrand and Lannemezan available on bilateral agreement basis

GPS surface network IGN : RGP 162 stations in September 2008

Observations Usage Summary DatatypeContactOperations ATOVS E. Gerard N15,16,17, 18, Aqua, Metop-A Geostat. winds C. Payan GOES, MeteoSat, MTSAT MODIS winds P. Moll Aqua,Terra scatterometer winds C. Payan Quikscat, Metop-A, ERS-2 Conv. (RS, AIREP, TEMP) P. Moll GPS P. Poli ZTD, RO AIRS F. Rabier Aqua IASI V. Guidard Metop-A

New NWP models configuration at Météo-France 3 models :  ARPEGE (resolution 15km, 60 levels)  ALADIN (resolution 10km, 60 levels)  AROME (resolution 2.5km, 41 levels)  Application de la Recherche à l’Opérationnel à MésoEchelle :

AROME plans  since 2007: test of the real-size model with data assimilation; evaluation by forecasters  October 2008: start of operational production  in 2009: new computer & continue model upgrades

Temperatures and winds ALADIN Temperatures and winds AROME Lyon Genève illustration: forecast on orography

3DVAR cycle AROME: - analysis of U, V, T, q et P S variables - cycling of TKE, NH et microphysical variables

ARPEGE Observations Hu 2m, T 2m V 10m SEVIRI HR ALADIN (+ SEVIRI HR, Hu 2m,T 2m,V 10m ) AROME (+ radar) GPSRO GPS sol IASI SEVIRI CSR Data assimilated into NWP models

Doppler radar network 24 radars: 16 in C band (yellow circles) + 8 in S band (green circles). Volumes reflectivities (from 2 to 13 elevations). 19 Doppler radars (red circles), 5 planned (dashed red circles) 3 polarimetric radars (black circles) 2 planned (dashed black circles)

Future plans  End 2008: new data processing environnement SOPRANO  October 2008: AROME France operational  Spring 2009: Nec phase 2  ARPEGE 10km, AROME L60  PEARP with members  New data (SSM/IS F16 and F17, NOAA-N’)  Enhanced use of data: high density radiances, more IASI and AIRS channels, extended conditions of use