By development we mean

By sustainable we mean …. (able to be maintained) ……managing the world’s development in a manner consistent with the continued healthy functioning of the Earth’s ecosystems, oceans, atmosphere and climate.

The world as seen by a development economist GDP per capita PPP adjusted

Nordhouse

richpoor GNP PPP/person $26,320$4,450 population (billion) % increase/year % with HIV/AIDS infant mortality rate 6/100059/1000 children/woman life expectancy 7665 % urban 7641 people/km Today’s divided world

Global GDP per capita PPP adjusted - displayed with country area proportional to parameter Source:

GDP Wealth increases 7yr doubling 10 yr doubling

GDP = C + I + E + G C = Consumer Spending I = Investment made by industry E = Excess of Exports over Imports G = Government Spending

HDI - Human Development Index ° Literacy - nu. in school c/w those who should be. ° Health - life expectancy ° GDP - the usual measure of welfare Add them up, normalize, range from.0 to Norway is top rank, Niger bottom (2007) US is #10, China #86,Australia #3

GDP can be high and development low

Life expectancy

Gapminder

The distribution appears to have two parts

Gapminder Which direction is causation? Does improved health create wealth, or does wealth lead to improved health?

Infant mortality

Maternal mortality

Young female illiteracy

Growth in tertiary education

Scientific research output (publications)

Human development HDI A few countries are re-ordered but top and bottom remain

Global GDP per capita PPP adjusted - displayed with country area proportional to parameter Source:

Human development declines

The Economist Nov 2009: Somalia wins worst country ranking

Maybe measures that emphasize wealth are misleading The Happy Planet Index! GDP per capita PPP adjusted Life expectancy x Life satisfaction Ecological footprint

Even the Happy Planet Index is bi-modal The Happy Planet Index!

Welfare has been achieved very unevenly around the world (regardless of the measure). What governs the current global distribution of welfare? Does geography/environment matter?

The world as seen by a development economist GDP per capita PPP adjusted

GDP per capita as a function of latitude. Poverty has a latitudinal dependence (J. Sachs)

xtxt X t+1 45 ° X t+1 = F( x t ) Simplest growth scenario

xtxt X t+1 Solow growth More realistic growth model

xtxt X t+1 Solow growth Are poor countries here?

xtxt X t+1 Stagnation - poverty trap xcxc Growth

Development curves seem to be bimodal? Gapminder

Development curves seem to be bimodal? Gapminder

xtxt X t+1 xcxc Growth Stagnation

xtxt X t+1 xcxc Growth Stagnation

What causes this development gap?

How big is the problem?

Add 1.5 billion people (3 billion is more likely) and allow the top to continue to prosper, then closing the development gap requires a 6-8 Fold increase in world economic output.

BUT since the industrial revolution world economic output has increased at least 40 Fold (some say 50) and population has increased 4-5 fold. So, on average, we are 10 times better off than we were before the industrial revolution.

All we need to do to close the gap is achieve a: 6-8 fold increase economic for only a 50% population increase What’s the problem?

If the current rate of economic growth were to continue on average (forget inequalities) then by the end of the century the world’s economic output would have increased by ??

80 fold

The industrial era growth in prosperity has been very uneven (the development discussion) and was achieved at a time when resources needed for growth were essentially limitless relative to population. Ample evidence now suggests that many biophysical and geophysical limits are being approached and the ideal world development may be unattainable.

Can development get started?

Can prosperity be maintained?

Malthus was not entirely right

Population total Growth rate % IR 1960

Population growth arises serious questions 50% growth Everybody in the 60”s UN projections of population increase

Demographic transition

Age pyramids in rich and poor regions

What causes this development gap?

Climate is zonal, the tropics are under the most stress now In a warmer world there will be more stress

62 Why are the climate zones – deserts, rainforests, glaciers, etc -- where they are? For more information about this map see: Climate Zones according to Köppen

63 A three cell structure Hadley Cell Mid-L. Cell Polar Cell

64 Rain forests here Deserts here

65 Climate zones are (almost) rainfall zones

Malaria Ecology Index

Overlap of Hookworm and Malaria

Agro-ecological zones

Does this say that aggressive appropriation of energy assets is needed for growth?

World coal production

World coal proven reserves

Carbon dioxide per capita 2002

Ecological debtors and creditors >50% in debt > 50% in credit

Is aggressive appropriation of the biosphere necessary for development or a consequence of it?

Is wealth or poverty the greatest threat to biodiversity loss?

The developing world cannot catch up to the top billion along the pathway that got us here without very alarming consequences for the future of the planet.

Nor can the top billion having taken one pathway to prosperity continue along the same pathway without very alarming consequences for the future of the planet.

Is this the only way development can happen? What is this graph telling us? Some measure of prosperity Some measure of use of natural capital

Ideal green spot What is this graph telling us? Some measure of prosperity Some measure of use of natural capital

What is this graph telling us? Some measure of prosperity Some measure of use of natural capital

“Are our dealings with nature sustainable? Can we expect world economic growth to continue for the foreseeable future? Should we be confident that our knowledge and skills will increase in ways that will lessen our reliance on nature despite our growing numbers and rising economic activity?” Sir Partha Dasgupta