Supply and demand scenarios for EU27 David Blanchard, European Commission EUROPEAN COMMISSION

Outline of presentation. Current situation of EU27. Projections to Baseline scenario -New Energy Policy scenario -Moderate and high oil price variants. Infrastructures development. General conclusions

EU27 primary energy demand Consumption 1825 Mtoe. Fossil fuels ~ 80% of the energy mix

EU27 indigenous production Indigenous production 880 Mtoe. Import dependency 54%

EU27 power generation Diversified electricity mix but greater dependency on gas (from 7 to 21% over )

EU 27 primary energy demand Baseline Moderate prices High prices New Energy Policy Moderate prices High prices Primary energy consumtpion in Mtoe -15% -7.5% Source: PRIMES model

EU 27 fossil fuel production (Mtoe) Baseline High prices Moderate prices New Energy Policy High prices Moderate prices

EU 27 Net imports (Mtoe) – 2020 Baseline Moderate prices High prices New Energy Policy Moderate prices High prices

EU 27 Fuel mix (% in primary energy) – 2020

EU27 primary consumption of gas (Mtoe) Baseline Moderate prices High prices New Energy Policy Moderate prices High prices

EU 27 gas imports (Mtoe) Baseline Moderate prices High prices New Energy Policy Moderate prices High prices Net gas imports in Mtoe -37% stable Source: PRIMES model

EU 27 import dependency (%)

Infrastructures development. Strategic Energy Review » Priority projects » Solidarity and responsability mechanisms. 3rd internal market package to stimulate investment along agreed 10-year plans. Financing from EIB and others to cover non- commercial risk and Recovery Action Plan. TEN-E Green Paper (  EU Energy Security and Solidarity Instrument), Communications on LNG, refineries

Southern gas corridor Mediterranean energy ring N-S interconnections within Central and South-East Europe LNG North Sea offshore grid Baltic interconnection plan priority projects Infrastructure

Conclusions General perspectives. Conclusions of the gas crisis to be drawn. ‘Vision for 2050’ to be prepared. Cooperation with stakeholders