IWRSS & Fusion Team Brief Missouri Basin River Forecasters’ Meeting Thursday, February 21, 2013 Noreen Schwein Deputy Chief for Hydrologic Services NWS Central Region

 Goal – Meet the challenge of future water resources through “an innovative partnership of federal agencies with complimentary operational missions in water science, observation, prediction and management.”  USACE-USGS-NWS MOU signed May 2011  ~ 26 potential federal agencies 2

Gap Gap Functional Requirement Low Flow River Forecasting Recalibrate existing models and incorporate new models and techniques Complex River Forecasting Higher caliber forecasting tools for advanced and complex hydrologic conditions (e.g. levee breaches, ice jams) Knowledge of Uncertainty In River Forecasting Improved ensemble forecasts and diagnostic verification Dynamic Flood Inundation Mapping Routine generation of high resolution dynamic inundation maps River Observing System A robust, secure and sufficient river gauge network with additional river gauges in critical locations Surface Observing Systems Sufficient spatially optimized surface observations of key water variables Remote Observing Systems Incorporation of existing observations and support for advancing new systems for water 3

Gap Gap Functional Requirement Water Resource Product Suite High space-time gridded water analyses and forecasts from summit-to-sea for all major water budget variables across all necessary lead times Operational Support 24x7 operational support to sustain expanded water resources services Shared Vision Synthesis, coordination and integration of a shared vision of operations, services and service delivery across participating organizations Interoperability/ Workflow Coordinated workflow and interoperability across multiple geographic scales, organizational boundaries and institutional systems 4 Gap Gap Functional Requirement Geo Intelligence and Common Operating Picture Shared data services for pre- processing, surveillance and geo-intelligence products and geospatial data sets through standard data and web services in support of a trans- agency common operating picture Archival of RFC/Partner data Archive of data, products and services from NWS RFCs and other federal partners Subject Matter Expertise Sufficient subject matter expertise to support the full gamut of advanced summit-to-sea water resources science and technology. Water Forecasting Proving Ground Multi-agency test bed to develop and test new science, test system interoperability, facilitate transition of research to operations and conduct retrospective studies

 Consortium led by tri-agency Governance Board ◦ USACE- James Dalton, NOAA/NWS - Don Cline, USGS - Jerad Bales  Two teams are chartered ◦ Data Interoperability ◦ Flood Inundation Mapping  Two teams are developing ◦ Water Modeling ◦ Geo-Intelligence  Team Membership - 2 members from each agency supported by individual agency advisory teams 5

 The NWC will integrate and combine the capabilities of multiple federal water partners to expand and improve river and flood forecasting, enhance water resource management, accelerate the application of research to real world uses and provide a single portal for water resources information.  The NWC is part of NOAA’s commitment to creating a Weather-Ready Nation 6

7 Becoming a Weather- Ready Nation is about building community resilience in the face of increasing vulnerability to extreme weather. Where the country is able to prepare for and respond to environmental events that affect safety, health, the environment, economy, and homeland security.

 Decision Support Services ◦ Use local relationships with Core Partners to help them to better prepare our communities for extraordinary events ◦ Provide information that is more impact-based ◦ Provide forecasts that quantify confidence ◦ Provide enhanced web displays 8

Mission: Work collaboratively to “improve the accuracy and utility of river/rainfall observations and river forecasts.” Chairman Chuck Shadie, USACE/MVD Advisory Committee Dave Busse, USACE/MVSBob Holmes, USGS Nat’l Flood Coordinator Noreen Schwein, NWS/Central Region Technical Members Joan Stemler, USACE/MVSTracy Clark, NWS/Sourthern Region Jim Stiman, USACE/MVRGeorge McKillop, NWS/Eastern Region Kevin Grode, USACE/NWDPedro Restrepo, NWS/NCRFC Brian Astifan, USACE/LRDTrent Schade, NWS/OHRFC Jeff Graschel, NWS/LMRFCKevin Low, NWS/MBRFC Shane Barks, USGS/MO WSCGeorge Arcement, USGS/LA WSC Jerry Butch, USGS/NY WSC 9 of 15

 Communication, Coordination, Collaboration  Data accuracy and accessibility  Technical forecast improvements  Cross-agency training and operations  River forecast verification/performance  Other issues 10 of 10

 Continued emphasis on coordination/collaboration ◦ Unified federal message through intricate coordination of NWS inflow forecasts, USACE reservoir outflow projections, and USGS flow measurements  NWS Chat enhancement implemented NWS Chat ◦ “All Chats” chatroom can be used to monitor all rooms at once as well as to send a message to particular chatroom(s)  Develop a one-stop shop for river gage metadata and contact information  Developed 28-day forecast website for mid-lower Mississippi28-day forecast website  Implemented extranet site for tri-agency resources 11 of 15

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 Post 2011 flood ◦ Per MVD request, in July 2012, the NWS RFCs developed a 28-day contingency guidance product that incorporated 16 days of model QPF for the Mississippi and Lower Missouri and Ohio Rivers (kept internal due to low confidence) 14 of 15

Courtesy USACE/MVD

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 Issue – Initializing flow values often differed among the 3 agencies and resulted in less accurate forecasts downstream ◦ Rating Curve Action Team finalized process to coordinate beginning flow used in USACE/NWS forecasts ◦ USACE/NWS goal to be within 2% of each other based on similar range used by USGS in their measurements noted as “good” with rating within 2-5% of measurement 17

 Implemented USACE-NWS collaborated hydraulic model (HEC-RAS) for Upper Mississippi & Illinois rivers (NCRFC & USACE/MVR) ◦ Implementation at MVR dependent on implementation of the Corps of Engineers Water Management System (CWMS)  NCRFC working with MVP on Red River of the North Note for interagency but not related to the Fusion Team:  MBRFC collaborated with USACE Kansas City District to develop HEC-RAS for the Missouri 18 of 12

 performance metrics at St. Louis indicated improvement in collaborated forecasts delivered to public  Action team ◦ Developed process to review specific events and annual trends ◦ 2012 will be first annual report ◦ Will also have the following years for trend analysis: 19 of 15

 Data ◦ NWS had incorrect FAQ regarding the source of AHPS Real-time Observational Data…was corrected through Fusion Team ◦ USGS quickly implemented policy regarding changes in river gage datums to allow enough time for NWS to effect needed changes ◦ USACE updated source of NWS forecast values to be the more real time, xml data  Outreach ◦ Fusion Team ASCE publication, “ Flood Risk Awareness during the 2011 Floods in the Central United States: Showcasing the Importance of Hydrologic Data and Interagency Collaboration” 20

 Address interagency flood assessment recommendations  Be resource to IWRSS FIM and Data Interoperability teams  Continue to analyze forecast accuracy through metrics  Expand use of Interagency Extranet site containing information to support interagency operations.Interagency Extranet site ◦ Jule Bartels, for access to  Share Fusion Team Best Practices in other interagency forums across the country (tri-agency, Silver Jackets, etc)  Continue cross-agency training including real time simulation training exercises 21 of 15

Questions?????? Noreen Schwein