Demographic Characteristics of U.S. Presidents 100% male 100% male 100% Caucasian 100% Caucasian 97% Protestant 97% Protestant 82% of British ancestry 82% of British ancestry 77% college educated 77% college educated 69% politicians 69% politicians 62% lawyers 62% lawyers >50% from the top 3% wealth and social class >50% from the top 3% wealth and social class 0.5% born into poverty 0.5% born into poverty 69% elected from large states 69% elected from large states

Constitutional Qualifications Must be at least 35 years old Must be at least 35 years old Must have lived in the United States for 14 years Must have lived in the United States for 14 years Must be a natural born citizen Must be a natural born citizen

Presidential Benefits $400,000 tax-free salary $400,000 tax-free salary $50,000/year expense account $50,000/year expense account $100,000/year travel expenses $100,000/year travel expenses The White House The White House Secret Service protection Secret Service protection Camp David country estate Camp David country estate Air Force One personal airplane Air Force One personal airplane Staff of Staff of

Head of State

Chief Executive

Commander-in-Chief

Chief Legislator

Chief Diplomat

Political Party Leader

Presidential Power Difference between legal powers and power (which is the exercise of influence). Difference between legal powers and power (which is the exercise of influence). Powers include the constitutional and legal authority of the president: Powers include the constitutional and legal authority of the president: National Security Powers: Commander in Chief, make treaties & executive agreements, nominate ambassadors. National Security Powers: Commander in Chief, make treaties & executive agreements, nominate ambassadors. Legislative Powers: State of the Union-- recommend legislation, convene/adjourn Congress, veto. Legislative Powers: State of the Union-- recommend legislation, convene/adjourn Congress, veto. Executive Powers: to faithfully execute the law; nominate executive officials (and fire them). Executive Powers: to faithfully execute the law; nominate executive officials (and fire them). Judicial Powers: reprieves and pardons for federal offenses; appoint federal judges and S.C. justices. Judicial Powers: reprieves and pardons for federal offenses; appoint federal judges and S.C. justices.

Presidential Power How much power (not powers) do presidents have? Depends on the political context in which they govern– something which they have little control over. How much power (not powers) do presidents have? Depends on the political context in which they govern– something which they have little control over. Presidential power is the power to persuade-- presidents must often bargain in order to persuade. Few things can be done alone. Presidential power is the power to persuade-- presidents must often bargain in order to persuade. Few things can be done alone. Examples: FDR, GW Bush. Examples: FDR, GW Bush. Viewed this way, power (influence) fluctuates from president to president, and within presidencies. Viewed this way, power (influence) fluctuates from president to president, and within presidencies.

The Constituencies of Modern Presidency The American People; The American People; Their Party; Their Party; Executive Branch (the bureaucracy); Executive Branch (the bureaucracy); Congress; Congress; Foreign Leaders. Foreign Leaders. All of these look to the president for leadership. All of these look to the president for leadership. May see things differently, however. May see things differently, however. A President’s ability to persuade relates more to things he cannot control (e.g. partisan division of Congress), rather than things they can control. A President’s ability to persuade relates more to things he cannot control (e.g. partisan division of Congress), rather than things they can control.

The President & the Public Public approval is an important resource for presidential leadership. Where is Bush now? Public approval is an important resource for presidential leadership. Where is Bush now? Approval fluctuates with time. Approval fluctuates with time. The honeymoon: Approval generally highest early during the term. The honeymoon: Approval generally highest early during the term. Generally declines over time. Generally declines over time. Approval levels typically reflect public evaluation of the handling of important issues (economy, war, etc.). Approval levels typically reflect public evaluation of the handling of important issues (economy, war, etc.). They are not a reflection of their feelings regarding the president’s personality. They are not a reflection of their feelings regarding the president’s personality.

The natural decline of approval over time

Average approval during terms (1 st term Bush)

The President & the Public The salient issues tend to be most important in determining public approval. Priming. The salient issues tend to be most important in determining public approval. Priming. Rally events help explain sudden upsurges in approval as a result of a foreign policy event involving the US. Rally events help explain sudden upsurges in approval as a result of a foreign policy event involving the US. Most approval rallies are short-lived, however. Most approval rallies are short-lived, however. 9/11 would be an example of an enduring rally, one that is not typical. 9/11 would be an example of an enduring rally, one that is not typical.

Presidential Effects on Opinion Presidents try to persuade the public to gain support, generally, and for specific proposals. Presidents try to persuade the public to gain support, generally, and for specific proposals. How successful are they? How successful are they? It depends. Popular presidents are more likely to be successful. It depends. Popular presidents are more likely to be successful. For a speech to work, the public must react favorably, and then make it clear to Congress what they want. For a speech to work, the public must react favorably, and then make it clear to Congress what they want. Presidential speeches designed to influence the public have generally been unimpressive. Presidential speeches designed to influence the public have generally been unimpressive. They rarely persuade the public. They rarely persuade the public.

Presidents & the Executive Branch As chief executive, President is charged with overseeing vast federal bureaucracy. As chief executive, President is charged with overseeing vast federal bureaucracy. Size of executive branch has increased drastically since the 1930s. Size of executive branch has increased drastically since the 1930s. Before 1939, presidents had little help in this task creation of the Executive Office of the Presidency (EOP). Has 11 offices, incl: Before 1939, presidents had little help in this task creation of the Executive Office of the Presidency (EOP). Has 11 offices, incl: National Security Council National Security Council The Council of Economic Advisors The Council of Economic Advisors The Office of Management and Budget (OMB)-- most important. The Office of Management and Budget (OMB)-- most important.

Presidents, White House Staff & Cabinet The Cabinet includes department secretaries. The Cabinet includes department secretaries. Modern presidents rely less on their cabinet for advice. Modern presidents rely less on their cabinet for advice. Cabinet secretaries have mixed loyalties. Cabinet secretaries have mixed loyalties. Must satisfy Congress & interests. Must satisfy Congress & interests. Hence, modern presidents have relied on EOP to manage bureaucracy and their White House staff for political and policy advice. Hence, modern presidents have relied on EOP to manage bureaucracy and their White House staff for political and policy advice. White House staff work directly for President. White House staff work directly for President. This might limit diversity of advice. This might limit diversity of advice.

Managing/Leading the Bureaucracy Despite their role as chief executive, modern presidents have been frustrated leading the bureaucracy. Despite their role as chief executive, modern presidents have been frustrated leading the bureaucracy. Agencies often resist presidential leadership. Agencies often resist presidential leadership. Modern presidents have tools to help in task: Modern presidents have tools to help in task: The appointment power. Changing agency leadership can influence what agencies do. The appointment power. Changing agency leadership can influence what agencies do. Budgetary control. Using the carrot and stick of agency resources, presidents request budgets. Budgetary control. Using the carrot and stick of agency resources, presidents request budgets. Centralized management, through the OMB. Centralized management, through the OMB.

Presidential Leadership of Congress Myth of strong presidents dominating Congress. Myth of strong presidents dominating Congress. Evidence suggests otherwise. Presidents are weak relative to Congress, must bargain to persuade. Evidence suggests otherwise. Presidents are weak relative to Congress, must bargain to persuade. President’s greatest influence: what goes into the legislative funnel (legislative agenda setting). President’s greatest influence: what goes into the legislative funnel (legislative agenda setting). ~40% of legislative agenda are presidential initiatives. ~40% of legislative agenda are presidential initiatives. Rises to ~50% during unified gov’t; Only ~25% during divided government. Rises to ~50% during unified gov’t; Only ~25% during divided government.

Presidential Leadership of Congress Most powerful legislative tool: the Veto. Most powerful legislative tool: the Veto. Requires 2/3rds majority in both chambers of Congress to pass bill over a veto. Requires 2/3rds majority in both chambers of Congress to pass bill over a veto. Very difficult to override. Only 12% of vetoes (since Eisenhower) have been overridden. Very difficult to override. Only 12% of vetoes (since Eisenhower) have been overridden. Even fewer overrides recently (see table). Even fewer overrides recently (see table). The Veto is a tool of minority presidents (presidents during divided government). The Veto is a tool of minority presidents (presidents during divided government). Threat of veto important as well. Threat of veto important as well. Presidents can help shape legislation through veto threats. Presidents can help shape legislation through veto threats.

3 Essential Leadership Resources 1. Political Party. Members of his party are predisposed to support the president. 1. Political Party. Members of his party are predisposed to support the president. On average a member of the president’s party supports the president about 70% of the time. On average a member of the president’s party supports the president about 70% of the time. Has increased during polarized era. Has increased during polarized era. Much lower among the opposing party. Much lower among the opposing party. Presidents have little impact on the number of their partisans in Congress. Presidents have little impact on the number of their partisans in Congress. Presidential coattails-- uncommon, and disappears by the midterm election. Presidential coattails-- uncommon, and disappears by the midterm election.

2006 GW Bush

3 Essential Leadership Resources 2. Public Support can help the president persuade Congress. 2. Public Support can help the president persuade Congress. A necessary, but insufficient resource for leadership. A necessary, but insufficient resource for leadership. Results are mixed, but most research suggests only a marginal relationship between approval and legislative support. Results are mixed, but most research suggests only a marginal relationship between approval and legislative support. 3. Legislative skills. Some presidents are more skilled than others. 3. Legislative skills. Some presidents are more skilled than others. Bargaining takes skill, understanding of process. Bargaining takes skill, understanding of process. Skilled presidents generally best at determining an effective strategy. Skilled presidents generally best at determining an effective strategy.

Presidential Legislative Strategies for Success Move quickly once elected. Move quickly once elected. Take advantage of the “honeymoon” that follows inauguration. Take advantage of the “honeymoon” that follows inauguration. Legislative success usually comes early. Legislative success usually comes early. Focus the agenda by setting clear priorities on a few important items. Focus the agenda by setting clear priorities on a few important items. Understand the strategic situation. Many presidents attempt too much, given context. Understand the strategic situation. Many presidents attempt too much, given context. Consult with Congress, don’t alienate them. Consult with Congress, don’t alienate them.