National Centers for Environmental Prediction: An Overview “Where America’s Climate, Weather, Ocean and Space Weather Services Begin” Dr. Louis W. Uccellini National Centers for Environmental Prediction Director 1 September 27, 2010

2 Outline NCEP’s Role in NOAA’s Seamless Suite of Products and Forecast Services Forecast Metrics Forces for Change Enable “Operational” Ecosystem Prediction Capabilities Summary

3 Organizational Chart for the National Weather Service Space Weather Prediction Center

4 Research, Development and Technology Infusion Respond & Feedback NCEP’s Role in NOAA’s Seamless Suite of Products and Forecast Services IBM Supercomputer Gaithersburg, MD Distribute Observe Products & Forecast Services To Serve Diverse Customer Base e.g., Energy Officials, DHS/FEMA, Emergency Managers, Water Resource Planning, Transportation, Health organizations (CDC…) NCEP Feedback - Process - Assimilate - Predict - Process - Assimilate - Predict Prediction is now inherently linked to numerical models Central Guidance Central Guidance Local Offices Local Offices

5 Organization: Central component of NOAA National Weather Service NCEP Supports the NOAA Seamless Suite of Climate Weather and Ocean Products Vision: The Nation’s trusted source, first alert and preferred partner for environmental prediction services Mission: NCEP delivers science-based environmental predictions to the nation and the global community. We collaborate with partners and customers to produce reliable, timely, and accurate analyses, guidance, forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy. Space Weather Prediction Center NCEP Central Operations Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydromet Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center Tropical Prediction Center Storm Prediction Center Aviation Weather Center

6 6

EMCWRF Developmental Test Center, NASA/ NOAA/DoD Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation CPCClimate Test Bed TPCJoint Hurricane Test Bed HPCHydrometeorological Test Bed SPCHazardous Weather Test Bed with NSSL SWPCSpace Weather Prediction Test Bed with AFWA AWCAviation Weather Test Bed OPClinked with EMC’s Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch Test Beds Service – Science Linkage with the Outside Community 7

8 What Does NCEP Do? -Model Development, Implementation and Applications for Global and Regional Weather, Climate, Oceans and now Space Weather -International Partnerships in Ensemble Forecasts -Data Assimilation including the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation -Super Computer, Workstation and Network Operations “From the Sun to the Sea” Solar Monitoring, Warnings and Forecasts Climate Seasonal Forecasts El Nino – La Nina Forecast Weather Forecasts to Day 7 Extreme Events (Hurricanes, Severe Weather, Snowstorms, Fire Weather) Aviation Forecasts and Warnings High Seas Forecasts and Warnings 8

9 Climate/Weather Linkage Week 2 Hazards Assessment ForecastUncertaintyForecastUncertainty Minutes Hours Days 1 Week 2 Week Months Seasons Years NOAA Seamless Suite of Forecast Products Spanning Climate and Weather CPC Forecast Lead Time Warnings & Alert Coordination Watches Forecasts Threats Assessments Guidance Outlook Benefits TPCOPC HPC SWPCAWCSPC Service Center Perspective Winter Weather Desk Days 1-3 Tropical Storms to Day 5 Severe Weather to Day 8 Fire Weather Outlooks to Day 8 : NDFD, Days Day Forecast MaritimeMaritime Life & Property Space Operations RecreationRecreation EcosystemEcosystem EnvironmentEnvironment Emergency Mgmt AgricultureAgriculture Reservoir Control Energy Planning CommerceCommerce HydropowerHydropower Fire Weather HealthHealth AviationAviation Seasonal Predictions

10 Climate/Weather Linkage ForecastUncertaintyForecastUncertainty Minutes Hours Days 1 Week 2 Week Months Seasons Years NWS Seamless Suite of Forecast Products Spanning Climate and Weather North American Ensemble Forecast System Climate Forecast System Forecast Lead Time Warnings & Alert Coordination Watches Forecasts Threats Assessments Guidance Outlook Benefits Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Ocean Model Hurricane Models Global Forecast System North American Forecast Rapid Update Cycle for Aviation Dispersion Models for DHS -GFDL -WRF NCEP Model Perspective MaritimeMaritime Life & Property Space Operations RecreationRecreation EcosystemEcosystem EnvironmentEnvironment Emergency Mgmt AgricultureAgriculture Reservoir Control Energy Planning CommerceCommerce HydropowerHydropower Fire Weather HealthHealth AviationAviation

11 Air Quality WRF NMM/ARW Workstation WRF WRF: ARW, NMM ETA, RSM GFS, Canadian Global Model Regional NAM WRF NMM North American Ensemble Forecast System Hurricane GFDL HWRF Global Forecast System Dispersion ARL/HYSPLIT For eca st Severe Weather Rapid Update for Aviation Climate CFS Short-Range Ensemble Forecast NOAA’s NWS Model Production Suite MOM3 NOAH Land Surface Model Coupled Global Data Assimilation Oceans HYCOM WaveWatch III NAM/CMAQ 11 Regional DA Regional DA Satellites + Radar 99.9% 3.5B Obs/Day

Land Ocean Predictions Driven by Global Observing Systems Real-time operations require world’s largest computers Atmosphere Cryosphere Prediction Requires “Coupling” of Basic Earth “Systems” within Global Numerical Forecast Models 12

Popularity of NCEP Models Web Page Number of Hits (Millions) Computing Capability Transition to IBM Power 6 complete –Declared operational August 12, 2009 –73.1 trillion calculations/sec –Factor of 4 increase over the IBM Power5 –156 POWER6 32-way nodes –4,992 processors –20 terabytes of memory –330 terabytes of disk space –3.5 billion observations/day –27.8 Million model fields/day Primary: Gaithersburg, MD Backup: Fairmont, WV –Guaranteed switchover in 15 minutes –Web access to models as they run on the CCS

Forecast Metrics 14

15 NHC Atlantic 72 hr Track Forecast Errors Advances Related To USWRP Major Upgrades in Global and Hurricane Numerical models trend line

16

17 Increasing emphasis on multi-model ensemble approaches that build on the NCEP model suite –SREF –NAEFS –Climate Forecast System Entering the NPOESS era –More rapid access to hyperspectral data –GPS soundings –Higher resolution surface radiance data All models run within ESMF –Models run concurrently –Fully coupled –Spanning all scales Operational Earth System model; enable more explicit hydro, ocean, coastal, climate and ecosystems applications Forces for Change Model Region 1 Model Region 2 Global/Regional Model Domain ESMF-based System

“Enable” Operational Ecosystem Prediction Capabilities 18 Emphasis as a major goal in NWS Strategic Plan Look to partner with OHD, NOS, OAR, NESDIS and other NOAA components

Accurate weather, water & climate information is a critical driver for decisions QPF runoff... to maintain soil, water quality and runoff/riverflow Coastal winds/waves and climatology... to predict toxic algal blooms, fish stock, and public safety Air/Water temperature... to forecast scenarios for pathogen progression and avoid illness Prediction capability can now be applied to ecosystem components to better provide integrated environmental services for decision support Integrated User Requirements Ecosystem Services such as flood and storm protection, clean water supply, safe food, healthy habitats, and beach quality, contribute $Trillions in economic activity, social, human health and commercial benefit

20 Prototype Projects Currently, NCEP and other NWS offices are linked to NOAA pilot programs –Chesapeake Bay Beach/Water Quality Living Resource Distribution Dissolved Oxygen Predictions Harmful Algal Bloom Disease Pathogen Progression –Gulf Coast –Gulf of Maine –Great Lakes –California Current Oysters, Fish, Sea nettles... Vibrio... Satellite Images of Saharan Dust Moving Across Atlantic Algal Blooms and Dead Zones Barnacles, Muscles

21 Summary NCEP is –Strategically aligned with NOAA’s “seamless suite” of products from the “Sun to the Sea” –Working with NOAA on opportunities to enable and expand predictive capabilities (e.g., oceans air and water quality, ecology, hydro/water runoff…) with success based on interdisciplinary Earth System approach NCEP-NOS-OHD ocean-coastal operational working relationship assesses model prediction for whitewater, coastal, ocean, as a seamless service –A critical transition agent in the NOAA “research to operations” process involving observations, data assimilation, modeling, and service delivery –Enabling predictive capabilities for ecosystem and human health applications