20 years of Integrated Assessment Modelling for the Convention Leen Hordijk, Markus Amann International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.

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Presentation transcript:

20 years of Integrated Assessment Modelling for the Convention Leen Hordijk, Markus Amann International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Integrated assessment modelling as a science-policy interface

WG Strategies WG WG Effects EMEP TFEIP Strategies EGTEI ↓ ↓ ↓ * * ↑ ↑ TF Integrated Assessment Modelling =

A unique dialogue between negotiators and modellers

/dev/tty> International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) RAINS 1.1 (1984) ========================================================= RRRR AA III NN N SSSS R R A A I N N N S RRRR AAAAAA I N N N SSSS R R A A I N N N S R R AA AA III N NN SSSS ========================================================= Please treat all results with caution! Hit RETURN to continue …

1.From the negotiators to the modellers: Do cost-effectiveness instead of cost-benefit analysis! Two key messages emerging from the dialog between negotiators and scientists

1992: Cost-effectiveness analysis for Second Sulfur Protocol

Two key messages emerging from the dialog between negotiators and scientists 1.From the negotiators to the modellers: Do cost-effectiveness instead of cost-benefit analysis! 2.From the modellers to the negotiators: A multi-pollutant/multi-effect approach can increase economic efficiency and open scope for policy deals!

Evolution of the multi-pollutant/multi-effect approach : RAINS for the Second Sulfur Protocol

Evolution of the multi-pollutant/multi-effect approach : RAINS for the Gothenburg Protocol

Evolution of the multi-pollutant/multi-effect approach : RAINS includes fine particles

Evolution of the multi-pollutant/multi-effect approach : GAINS includes interactions with greenhouse gases

Conclusions Integrated assessment can greatly improve the policy relevance of scientific assessments A structured dialogue between negotiators and modellers is essential With increasing marginal costs of the remaining measures, capturing the full set of multiple benefits of pollution control measures will be critical: Integrated assessment modelling offers a practical approach

20 years assessment of forest soil acidification 1984 and : CAFE assessment for : RAINS 1.1 assessment for 2010 Percentage of forest area with acid deposition above critical loads