Application of Data-Limited Methods (SEDAR 46) and Potential Use for Management Shannon L. Cass-Calay, Nancie Cummings, Skyler Sagarese, Tom Carruthers CFMC Meeting December 8, 2015 San Juan, Puerto Rico Southeast Fisheries Science Center

Why Use Data-Limited Approaches? Can be developed using the available data. The DLM Toolkit facilitates rapid assessments using 57+ approaches. Produces estimates of acceptable removals (OFL, ABC), diagnostics, sensitivity analyses and facilitates hypothesis testing. Once models are accepted, data-limited approaches are easily updated. Increased throughput The DLM toolkit can also be used to prioritize data collection activities U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 2

Application of Data-Limited Approaches U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 3 NRDC Report, Newman et al. 2014

SEDAR 46: Caribbean Data-Limited Methods SEDAR 46 is currently in progress Provisional model results were developed at a workshop Nov 2-6, Final results will be available March 28, U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 4

SEDAR 46: Project Schedule U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 5 December 14 th, 2015

SEDAR 46: Data Triage The SEDAR 46 panelists reviewed: Commercial Landings Commercial Reporting Compliance (SEDAR46-WP-06) Recreational Landings and Discards TIP: Length Frequency (SEDAR46-WP-05) Fishery Dependent Effort/CPUE Life History Fishery Independent Workshop Report Fishers in attendance participated by contributing information on fishing operations, targeting, selectivity and perceived trends in fishing effort and catch rates. Documents are available at U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 6

SEDAR 46: Species Selection 6 Stocks Selected U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 7 STT: Queen TriggerfishSTT&STX: Spiny Lobster STX: Stoplight Parrotfish PR: Hogfish PR: Yellowtail Snapper

Input Data U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 8 Name Year Annual Total Removals Abundance indexNA Duration t (Years)31 Average catch over time t70634 Depletion over time t0.225 M FMSY/M0.75 BMSY/B00.35 CrefNA BrefNA Length at 50% maturity176.8 Length at 95% maturity300 Length at first capture230 Length at full selection550 Catch at ageNA Current stock depletion0.225 Current stock abundance Von Bertalanffy t0 parameter Von Bertalanffy K parameter Von Bertalanffy Linf parameter Length-weight parameter a9.50E-05 Length-weight parameter b2.745 Steepness0.8 Maximum age23 Not all data is required (note N/As). Sensitivity of model output (yield) to these estimates can be explored

Requirements for use/interpretation 57+ data limited methods are included in the toolkit. Each method produces an estimate of OFL/ABC Not all models are consistent with management objectives (often called performance measures). These objectives MUST be defined in order to interpret results and develop management advice. U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 9

Possible Management Objectives U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 10 Continues on next slide……

Possible Management Objectives U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 11

Possible Management Objectives SEDAR 46 recommended the following: Probability of overfishing less than 50% Probability of overfished status less than 50% Minimum Stock Size Threshold = 50%BMSY? Allowable variation in annual yield (CV=15%) The Council may also wish to consider: Desired yield as a fraction of long-term MSY Maximum probability of stock collapse Others? There are intrinsic trade-offs that must be considered. U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 12

TRADE-OFFS Eliminate models that are inconsistent with management objectives U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 13 Eliminate models that don’t achieve 60% of long- term “MSY” Eliminate models with >50% probability of overfishing

Results of “Best Available Methods” U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 14 More appropriately labeled “Acceptable Biological Catch”. Could be buffered if uncertainty is large

Application of Data-Limited Approach If insufficient data exist to apply any methods recommended from MSE, then adopt interim measures and update data collection plan. Data Collection Planning Run the DLM Toolkit’s “NEEDED” function Determine what data are required for best performing methods Prioritize data collection activities according to feasibility of collecting specific types of data and expected benefits in terms of corresponding method performance Use Interim measures (e.g. recent landings, ABC = 0) U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 15

SEDAR 46: Next Steps Finalize Models Review Workshop Feb , Miami, FL. (CIE+SSC) Present results to full SSC (after April 2016) SSC determines whether results are “best available” and useful to inform management The use of DLM approaches may require a modified management framework. U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 16

Potential Management Framework Need a tiered control rule the allows ABC to be computed using stock assessment advice. Currently, FMP species ACLs from recent landings only. Species complexes could be retained. U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 17

Potential Management Framework Tiered control rule similar to GMFMC and SAFMC 1.If SSC “accepts” the assessment for management advice: OFL determined from assessment outcome(s), ABC could be reduced from OFL to account for uncertainty. 2.If SSC “rejects” the assessment, use an “interim measure” such as that derived from recent landings history. U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 18

Questions? U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 19