Monetary Policy Update 2008:1 23 April 2008. Repo rate held unchanged at 4.25 per cent. The repo rate is expected to remain unchanged during the remainder.

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Presentation transcript:

Monetary Policy Update 2008:1 23 April 2008

Repo rate held unchanged at 4.25 per cent. The repo rate is expected to remain unchanged during the remainder of the year Inflation will gradually approach the target of 2 per cent

Weaker international economic activity and financial market turmoil Good economic activity in Sweden but signs of slackening Inflation and inflation expectations still high High energy and food prices Repo rate unchanged

Lower growth in USA and Euro area Quarterly change in per cent, in annualised terms, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat and the Riksbank

Financial market turmoil persists Difference between interbank and treasury rates, basis points Source: Reuters EcoWin Note. Refers to difference between 3-month interbank rates and 3-month treasury bills.

Weaker international economic activity and financial market turmoil Good economic activity in Sweden but signs of slackening Inflation and inflation expectations still high High energy and food prices Repo rate unchanged

Continued good GDP growth Quarterly change in per cent, in annualised terms, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Signs of weaker consumption Annual percentage change and balance Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics Sweden Note. The retail trade sales refer to a 3-month moving average

Weaker international economic activity and financial market turmoil Good economic activity in Sweden but signs of slackening Inflation and inflation expectations still high High energy and food prices Repo rate unchanged

Continuing high inflation Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Food prices rising rapidly Food prices in CPIX, annual percentage change Source: Statistics Sweden Note. Food incl. Alcohol and tobacco. Weight 17.6% in CPIX

Risks in the interest rate forecast + Higher food and energy prices + Weaker productivity - Weaker international economic activity - Worsening financial market turmoil

Summary Inflation and inflation expectations still high Good economic activity in Sweden but signs of slackening Weaker international economic activity and financial market turmoil Repo rate expected to be 4.25 per cent over the year to achieve the inflation target of 2 per cent

The interest rate path is a forecast – not a promise Source: The Riksbank Per cent, quarterly average