Mikhail Minakov, National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy Conference “Demodernization: Perspectives and Approaches” Nice, France, February 29 - March 1, 2016 POST-SOVIET DEMODERNIZATION

RETRO-MODERNITY OR DEMODERNIZATION?

MAIN THESES there are disruptions in the modernization projects: reverse development with chiasmi of modern and archaic forms of life there societies that survived several recurring disruptions on modernization in recent two centuries post-Soviet regimes were created by the modernization claims and led to de-modernizing regimes

MAIN THESES post-Soviet modernities develop in cycles, just the same way as the previous modernity projects in imperial and Soviet times current de-modernization trends in Russia, Belarus, and/or Georgia are the phases of these modernization cycles if hypotheses on these cycles is correct, there is a hope for future opportunity to re-start modernity projects in Eastern European societies

MODERNITY CYCLES: CONCEPTUAL ELEMENTS Inglehart and Welzel: modernization almost certainly leads to the expansion of the values of freedom and reduces the probability of violence reversible nature of transition, possibility of modernizaion’s disruption North, Wallis and Weingast Inglehart and Welzel: transition goes from closed to the open access regime most today’s societies get stuck in the transition from one stage into another Shmuel Eisenstadt: multiple modernities with “common cultural programme” Fitzpatrick – Martin debate: modernists VS neo-traditionalists Simon Kordonsky: state collapses do not change restoration of strange coexistence of modernity and archaic structures

MODERNITY: CONCEPTUAL ELEMENTS Public Sphere family religious organizations business government privacy of individual judiciary parliament parties civil society Private Sphere

MODERNITY: CONCEPTUAL ELEMENTS

MODERNITY CYCLES: CONCEPTUAL ELEMENTS Central theses derived from the debates of the recent decades: modernity as a global cultural situation is multiple and not reducible to a single model modernity exists as a set of different modernizing programs, which interact by partially supporting and partially destroying the prospects of modernization modernity is complex not only in spatial, but also in temporal terms — some local modernities have achieved the open access order and the wide support for self-expression values long time ago, others are only stepping on their path of modernization, and the third are starting to modernize for the umpteenth time, being trapped in the cycle of self-undermining modernization

MODERNITY CYCLES: CONCEPTUAL ELEMENTS Some local modernities’ turn up in a situation when their modernization attempts are being developed in cycles: profound socio-political crisis an opportunity to establish an open access order (the modernization stage) the period of “betrayal of the elites” who take back the monopoly on violence and the control over the access to resources, and the destruction of the institutes and institutions which guarantee political and economic freedoms (demodernization stage)

MODERNITY CYCLES: SCHEME no promises, leader’s brand abuse of the historical rights promise of political liberties and economic freedoms political imagination of future promise of authoritarian modernization in exchange for even more freedoms political imagination of past promise of stability in exchange for most of freedoms political imagination of now oligarchic de- modernizing period authoritarian modernizing period authoritarian de- modernizing period revolutionary modernizing period

MODERNITY CYCLE: REVOLUTIONARY MODERNIZING PERIOD promise of political liberties and economic freedoms political imagination of future historical examples: early Soviet constitutions – orientation on the future revolutions in the private (entrepreneurial, criminal and sexual Rs) and public spheres (invention of a national state, political competition and democratic state-building) Belarus case: early anti-modern reaction, laboratory of demodernization

MODERNITY CYCLE: OLIGARCHIC DE-MODERNIZING PERIOD promise of stability in exchange for most of freedoms political imagination of now examples: ‘semiboyarshchina’ in 1996 Russia Ukraine in

MODERNITY CYCLE: AUTHORITARIAN MODERNIZING PERIOD promise of authoritarian modernization in exchange for even more freedoms political imagination of past examples: Putin’s 1 st term Medvedev’s presidency Kuchma’s 2 nd presidency Yanukovych presidency, first 2 years

MODERNITY CYCLE: AUTHORITARIAN DE-MODERNIZING PERIOD no promises, leader’s brand non-democratic consolidation with the abuse of the historical issues examples: Putin’s 3d term Yanukovych presidency, last 2 years

CURRENT RISKS proliferation of demodernization archaic values and practices using modern technologies political institutions: power vertical legal solutions: dictatorial laws dominance of informal over formal institutions proliferation of wars and conflicts in Eastern Europe The post-Soviet territory is a global history’s lab for testing alternative demodernization schemes, from their theoretic elaboration to practical implementation of anti-modern models of socio-political structure.

OPTIMISTIC CONCLUSIONS if hypotheses on these cycles is correct, there is a hope for future opportunity to re-start modernity projects in Eastern European societies need for civil, economic and political players to be ready for the opportunity Jurgen Habermas: “Modernity: an unfinished project.”