Climate Prediction Center Monitoring Products Dr. Gerald Bell Climate Prediction Center/ NOAA/ NWS National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Camp Springs, MD

Outline 1.Climate monitoring versus assessment 2.Overview of CPC climate monitoring products 3.Main monitoring products 1.Global Temperature and Precipitation 2.Drought and Soil Moisture 3.ENSO 4.Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) 5.Atlantic and East Pacific Hurricanes 6.Teleconnections 4. Summary

Climate Monitoring versus Assessment MonitoringMonitoring Examination of daily, monthly, seasonal, etc. analyses of atmospheric and oceanic variabilityExamination of daily, monthly, seasonal, etc. analyses of atmospheric and oceanic variability Helps to identify and understand current and past short-term climate anomaliesHelps to identify and understand current and past short-term climate anomalies Critical for understanding and predictionsCritical for understanding and predictions AssessmentAssessment Analysis of the current or past conditions designed to aid our understanding of a particular climate phenomenon or event.Analysis of the current or past conditions designed to aid our understanding of a particular climate phenomenon or event. Examples: ENSO Assessments, special climate assessments, seasonal climate asssessments.Examples: ENSO Assessments, special climate assessments, seasonal climate asssessments. Critical for understanding and predictionsCritical for understanding and predictions

CPC home Page: Overview of CPC Monitoring Products

Index Expert Assessments Climate Diagnostics Bulletin Weather and Climate Hazards ENSO, Drought Special Climate Summaries Annual Climate Assessments Seasonal Climate Monitoring Overview of CPC Monitoring Products

Seasonal Climate Monitoring Seasonal Climate Summaries Index Expert Assessments Seasonal Assessment, SST, Circulation in Tropics and Extratropics, Precipitation, Temperature, Animations Overview of CPC Monitoring Products

Monitoring and DataIndex Other items on page: Drought Soil Moisture Snow Cover Degree Days Africa Maps and Data Pacific Islands data Forecast Performance Overview of CPC Monitoring Products

Daily Temperature Analysis Click Analyses in (F) and (C) Analyses include Mean Temps, Max and Min Temps Daily, 5-day, 7 day, 30 day, 90 day Data Stations: River Forecast Centers ~ 2500/per day Hydrologic Auto data System ~ 1500/ day Grid resolution: 0.5 X 0.5 degree Surface Temperature Monitoring

30-day Means and Anomalies

Monitoring and Data Temperature Time Series Click 365-day Temperature Time Series Surface Temperature Monitoring

Daily Precipitation Analysis Click Precipitation Monitoring

Daily Precipitation Analysis Click United States Gridded Precipitation Analyses include Daily, 7 day, 30 day, 90 day, 180 day, 365-day averages, month-to-date totals. Download gridded data Data Stations: River Forecast Centers ~ 5000/per day Hydrologic Auto data System ~ 1500/ day Minimum of 500 stations required Grid resolution: 0.25 X 0.25 degree Quality Control: Duplicate Station Check Data check (buddy check, outliers NEXRAD check for spurious zeros Precipitation Monitoring

Daily Precipitation Analysis Example of 180-day Precipitation Analysis

Daily Precipitation Analysis Precipitation Station Coverage

Click on station to get Precipitation time series Monitoring and Data Precipitation Time Series Click Global Precipitation Time Series’ Precipitation Monitoring

Example of 90-day Precipitation Time Series Precipitation Monitoring

Products U.S. Climate & Data Maps Monitoring & Data Drought Drought monitoring

Drought Monitoring Palmer Drought Index

Index Soil Moisture Monitoring & Data Soil Moisture Analysis Outlook Maps Evaporation Runoff Recent Anomalies Recent Changes Climatology Drought Indicators Soil Moisture

Example of Soil Moisture Anomalies

Climate Highlights Drought Assessment Home U.S. Drought Assessment Information Used to Make Drought Outlook Seasonal Outlooks Drought data Drought Indicator Blends Soil Moisture Data Precip. and Temp.

Climate & Weather El Niño /La Nina Home Monitoring Tropical Climate Variability MJO Current Conditions—Weekly Update (.ppt) Animations Weekly and Monthly Analyses Diagnostics Discussion Tutorial

Powerpoint Presentations of latest ENSO and MJO conditions ENSO Evolution, Status, and Prediction Presentation MJO MJO Weekly Update El Niño /La Nina Weekly ENSO Update Weekly MJO Update Monitoring Tropical Climate Variability

Weekly SST Anomalies Time Series of Weekly SST Anomalies for the 4 Niño Regions Monitoring Tropical Climate Variability

Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) Anomalies Measures Anomalous Tropical Convection Wetter-than-average conditions (blue shading) Drier-than-average conditions (orange/red shading) Longitude Time Monitoring Tropical Climate Variability

Negative anomalies (green shading) indicate favorable conditions for precipitation. Positive anomalies (brown shading) indicate unfavorable conditions for precipitation. Longitude Madden / Julian Oscillation (MJO) 200-hPa Velocity Potential Anomalies show MJO the best Monitoring Tropical Climate Variability

Subsurface Temperature Departures in Equatorial Pacific Ocean model creates gridded sub-surface temperature using buoy data, sounding data from TOGA TAO array, etc. EL Niño Warming along Thermocline, Combined with down-welling phase of Kelvin Wave triggered by MJO Anomalous warmth in East due to Kelvin Wave W Mid-Feb Early Mar Mid-Mar Early Apr Monitoring Tropical Climate Variability

Monitoring North Atlantic and East Pacific Hurricane Potential Monitoring and DataIndexMonitoring Atlantic Hurricane Potential Monitoring East. Pac. Hurricane Potential

Enhanced Tropical Easterly Jet (200-mb) Favorable African Easterly Jet Higher Pressure in Upper Atmosphere Weaker Easterly Trade Winds (Dark Blue arrow) Warmer SSTs Lower Vertical Wind Shear and Surface Pressure (Red Area) Upper-level Easterlies Expand Westward (Green arrows) Analyses are related to Monitoring key Circulation features associated with Hurricane formation Monitoring North Atlantic Hurricane Potential

Weekly SST Departures Very warm SSTs persist in Tropical Atlantic Monitoring North Atlantic Hurricane Potential

700-hPa: African Easterly Jet (AEJ) AEJ already showing increased cyclonic shear and weaker easterly trades. Classic signal for active Hurricane season Monitoring North Atlantic Hurricane Potential

Area-averaged 200-hPa streamfunction anomalies Show strength of subtropical ridge across the North Atlantic Orange shows enhanced subtropical ridge. Strong intra-seasonal variability due to MJO is seen. Monitoring North Atlantic Hurricane Potential

Northern Hemisphere Teleconnection Patterns Monitoring and DataIndex Northern Hemisphere Teleconnection Patterns Climate and WeatherTeleconnections Monthly and Daily analyses Monthly: Daily: Monthly: Patterns, Calculation procedure, Description of 10 leading teleconnection patterns Description of 10 leading teleconnection patterns Time Series Time Series Associated temp and precipitation departures Associated temp and precipitation departures Daily: Observed time series of PNA, NAO, AO. MRF and ensemble forecasts MRF and ensemble forecasts

DailyMonthly North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Time Series Based on standardized 500-hPa height anomalies Northern Hemisphere Teleconnection Patterns

MRF Model Forecasts of NAO Northern Hemisphere Teleconnection Patterns

Ensemble Model Forecasts of NAO Northern Hemisphere Teleconnection Patterns

Summary Atlantic SST Anomalies 200-hPa Velocity Potential Anomalies