OPPORTUNITIES FOR LATIN AMERICA?. THE WAR ON TERROR U.S.-imposed rules of geopolitical game Co-existence with geo-economic game Latin America:  “spectator”

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Presentation transcript:

OPPORTUNITIES FOR LATIN AMERICA?

THE WAR ON TERROR U.S.-imposed rules of geopolitical game Co-existence with geo-economic game Latin America:  “spectator” role in geopolitics  active participation in geo-economic game

PREVAILING CONDITIONS Ideological divisions: left, right, center Prevalence of democratic discourse Focus on “strategic options” Unavailable alternatives:  Bolivarian dream of collective unity  Rule of international law, organizations Thus: geo-economic option (with U.S. focused on geopolitics)

GE0-ECONOMICS 1. TURN TOWARD THE NORTH Vicente Fox (Mexico)  Hopes for immigration reform  NAFTA constraints  Opposition throughout Latin America Comrades in the War on Terror (Geopolitics too)  Colombia  Guatemala The FTA Club  Chile [special case]  Central America + DR  Peru  Colombia  Panama

GEO-ECONOMICS 2. SUBREGIONAL HEGEMONY Brazil (Lula + Dilma)  Grandeza brasileira  Role in Haiti  Resistance to FTAA Venezuela (Chávez)  ALBA (Alternativa Bolivariana para las Américas)  International assistance programs  Alliances with Cuba and “pink tide” countries  Denunciations of Bush and USA  Resistance to FTAA (r.i.p.)

GEO-ECONOMICS 3. THIRD WORLD SOLIDARITY Brazil (Lula)  WTO  Group of 20+ (a.k.a. 21)  G3, G5 Venezuela (Chávez)  Non-Aligned Movement  UN Security Council  Petroleum exporters (including Iran)

GEO-ECONOMICS 4. BEYOND THE HEMISPHERE Europe  Divisions over Iraq  Concern about EU future  FTAs with Mexico, Chile  Distancing from/by Spain Asia  Withdrawal of Japan  Eruption of “China fever”  PRC “strategic partnerships” with Brazil, Venezuela, Argentina, Mexico; “cooperative partnership” with Chile, “friendly and cooperative relations” with Cuba Iran?  Really?

ECONOMIC DIMENSIONS Exports to China, 2008:  Argentina 9.0%  Brazil12.4%  Chile 4.8%  Mexico 0.7%  Cuba18.4% Liberation from IMF:  Argentina2005 ($9.8 bn)  Brazil2005 ($15.5 bn)  IMF “relegated to sidelines”

POLITICAL DIMENSIONS Distaste for GWB and U.S. policies Resuscitation of Cuba Regional organizations w/o USA:  Rio Group (1986, 23 members)  Latin American Summit on Integration and Development (2008, 33 members)  CELAC (2010, 33 members)  Ibero-American Summits (1991)  MERCOSUR (1991, 4 members plus)  UNASUR (2005)

BILATERAL DIMENSIONS Argentina: “a distant relationship” Brazil: “getting better all the time” Chile: “cooperative friendship” Colombia: “strategic partners or uncertain allies?”

THE BENEFITS OF INATTENTION?