MULTI-DIMENSIONAL SECURITY Headaches and recipes for public policy

‘WHAT IS SECURITY?’ We are not going back over basic questions eg etymology, negative/ positive security, ‘security for whom’ We start from the assumption that there are different dimensions of security today that cause concern at level of states, organizations of states, societies, and individuals

WHAT DOES THE ‘SECURITY SPECTRUM’ TELL US? Look at the range - typical for a developed democratic state (differences for a weak ‘Southern’ state, an ‘emerging’ power...??) What is left off at the bottom? Note options for grouping/packaging Choice of ‘packages’ is itself a sign of priorities, doctrines, fashions Any dimensions or possible packages left out?

IS THIS PRACTICAL? Common critiques: (i) over-extended definitions ‘meaningless’ and/or ‘too complicated’ (eg for comparative risk assessment, executive handling); (ii) critique of ‘securitization’ BUT: - main risks for West objectively moving down the spectrum; non-securitizing can also mean ignoring/downplaying them (cf US experience..) - all action comes out of same resource pot (state and non-state) - look at what our govts/organiz’ns are actually saying, even pre-kreppa! (‘Threats’ handout)

MORE ON NON-MILITARY DIMENSIONS See ‘”Something” Security’ handout: - types of functional security problem - interplay with ‘hard’ security - introducing idea of chains of causation, chains of consequences Chains idea in more detail:

EXAMPLE: THE HERBERT BRAUN DIAGRAM ON EFFECTS OF A MAJOR ENERGY BREAKDOWN (EG, NATION-WIDE OR VERY LARGE ELECTRICITY FAILURE): ‘WORST SCENARIO’ FOR SWISS NATIONAL SECURITY (Who is Herbert Braun??)

THINGS BRAUN SAYS CAN CAUSE THIS Storm or drought (eg, caused by climate change) Nuclear accident Cyberterrorism Internal political/economic crisis (how?) THINK OF MORE!

THINGS BRAUN SAYS THIS CAN LEAD TO Breakdown of economy/banking Ditto IT networks Ditto ‘international competitiveness’ Ditto health system THINK OF MORE!!

IN SUM: Military, terrorist, internal-political, human accident and natural forces can cause the problem Military, law and order, economic, technological, and human dimensions of security can suffer as a result

WHAT REMEDIES? (a) PRIORITIZING CAUSES Which are more likely/frequent? Which are likely to have bigger impact than others (always bigger, or wider range)? Which are likely to have multiple impacts? WHICH CAN WE DO ANYTHING ABOUT??

CAUSES: WHAT CAN WE DO? State alone or with other states/institutions State alone or with other kinds of actors Eliminate, deter, divert; reduce motive or targets or impact or frequency GIVE EXAMPLES relevant for (i) cyber- terrorism (ii) climate change

(b)DAMAGE: PRIORITIZING CONCERNS Vulnerability/exposure Robustness - survival, functioning Nature of (direct) consequences Seriousness/scale of consequences for (a) the state, (b) people, (c) the environment ((d) allies if any) Likelihood, number and seriousness of secondary consequences (dominos)

DAMAGE: WHAT CAN WE DO? Reduce exposure (harden, disperse and diversify, find substitutes etc) Increase robustness (material + human, objective + psychological) Block/reduce direct losses Block/reduce domino effects (firewalls, redundancy etc) GIVE EXAMPLES for (a) health system (b) transport networks

HOW TO DISTRIBUTE RESOURCES? Traditional defence OR new violence All violence vs. all accidental+natural risks All ‘security’ probs vs permanent needs Frequent OR exceptional risks Short-term OR long-term risks Obvious OR creeping/invisible risks Just for ourselves or for the world as a whole??

HOW TO LINK THIS WITH OUR NON-STATE ANALYSIS? Triangles document (More detailed lists on business in session 4)