Thursday, October 1st Audio Code – Please Stand By

Key points Still uncertainty in the Track of Hurricane Joaquin – Heavy rainfall expected regardless of track Still a great deal of uncertainty in the rainfall forecast – There will be updates regularly Especially vulnerable areas – Western North Carolina and Virginia Other Areas to watch – the rest of Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina…and eventually parts of Georgia

Multi-Sensor Rainfall Estimates 7-day 5 Inches + Rainfall Areas of 5 inch + Rainfall

Streamflow

Current Track – Hurricane Joaquin

Thursday 2 pm

Friday 2 pm

5 Inches + Rainfall Areas of 5 inch + Rainfall Day 1 Rainfall Fcst ending at 8 am Fri

Saturday 8 am

Day 2 rainfall ending at 8 am Sat

Day 1-2 Rainfall

Sunday 8 am

Day 3 rainfall ending at 8 am Sun

Virginia

South Carolina

Multi-Model Ensemble Forecast System MMEFS

Bottom Line Still uncertainty in the Track of Hurricane Joaquin – Heavy rainfall expected regardless of track Still a great deal of uncertainty in the rainfall forecast – There will be updates regularly Especially vulnerable areas – Western North Carolina and Virginia Other Areas to watch – the rest of Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina…and eventually parts of Georgia

Briefing for heavy rain event in Southeast Daily Operational Support Message by 2:30 today weather.gov/serfc