2014 NWSA Annual Meeting

 Discussion Topics:  2013 Fire Season (review)  Winter and Spring  What’s new for 2014  Seasonal Outlook for the 2014 Fire Season

2014 NWSA Annual Meeting  2013 Fire Season Analysis and Verification:  The 2013 fire season saw a decrease in overall fire activity.  There were bouts of monsoon moisture that produced available ignition due to the associated lightning.  Some of the drought stressed vegetation areas ignited quickly with the lightning even with the moisture  Fires then spread quickly with wind and topography as a driving force.

2014 NWSA Annual Meeting  Wildfire Acreage Burned per Year:

2014 NWSA Annual Meeting  Reasons for the reduced fire acreage during the 2013 fire season:  Many areas especially in the west received above average moisture in August.(exception California)  Air, Fuel and Soil moisture increased thereby keeping fire spread within tolerance limiting large fire growth.  Over water trajectory (i.e Pacific Ocean) was over the northwest.

2014 NWSA Annual Meeting  Reasons continued:  The overwater trajectory coupled with the moist monsoon influx produced an adequate amount of moisture to slow the fire season.  This effect mainly occurred in August and September.

2014 NWSA Annual Meeting  June percent of average precipitation remained very dry over the SW and southern California  Pac. NW was near to above average.

2014 NWSA Annual Meeting  Percent of average precipitation for July  Still below average along the west coast and into eastern Oregon and Washington.  Great Basin above average.  Height of fire ignition season.

2014 NWSA Annual Meeting  In August we are now seeing the combination of the monsoon moisture and Pacific moisture pushing percent of average precipitation above average.  This weather pattern would slow the fire season in some areas.

2014 NWSA Annual Meeting  By September the % of average Precipitation was above average over nearly all areas of the west.  Parts of the Mid- west and East still were in a drier than average state.  Fire season was essentially over in the west.

2014 NWSA Annual Meeting  October abruptly turned dry again and has remained dry through January and into February.

2014 NWSA Annual Meeting  New things to consider for 2014 Fire Weather Season.  The Climate Averages are NCDC's latest three-decade averages for climatological variables.  These variables include temperature and precipitation data.  This new product replaces the Climate averages product, which remains available as historical data Climate averages

2014 NWSA Annual Meeting Winter 2013 and early Spring Snowpack and Precipitation data.

2012 NWSA Annual Meeting Drought Monitor Comparison Nov Feb

2014 NWSA Annual Meeting  This is the January SWE for the western US.  Extremely low SWE over the Cascades and much of the Sierra Nevada Mountains.  Previous graphics showed California in a severe to extreme drought.  Northern Rockies are 70-80% of average.

2014 NWSA Annual Meeting  West Wide SWE from SNOTEL sites around the western States.  Some increase in SWE mid Jan-Feb is expected.  This latest map shows improvement in the Pacific NW in February.

2014 NWAS Annual Meeting  12 Month Standard Precipitation Index (SPI)  Shows : deficit/abundance of Precipitation.  Also shows the drought trends.  No. California is a bulls eye fore extreme drought.

2014 NWSA Annual Meeting  6 month SPI will show if there is improvement in the drought areas.  All of west coast and portions of the inter-mountain west are in a water deficit.

2014 NWSA Annual Meeting  This is the 1 month SPI for the month of January.  We still see the very pronounced drought continuing over California and southwest Oregon.

2014 NWSA Annual Meeting  Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for the week of February 15.  Still seeing Severe to Extreme drought for California and western Nevada.  Drought improved with the latest precipitation late January and February over OR, WA, and ID.

2014 NWSA Annual Meeting  The latest U.S. Drought Monitor for February 18 still continues the Extreme to Exceptional Drought over California and parts of the South- west.

2014 NWSA Annual Meeting  No surprises here!  Drought persists over California, Southwest and intensifies over OR, NV, and southern Idaho.  The rest of the U.S is showing improvement.

2014 NWSA Annual Meeting 2014 ENSO  A Neutral ENSO continues to persist over the tropical eastern Pacific.  Has been in this state for the past 15 months.  It does look like a warming phase is beginning which would mean we are moving into an El Nino stage.

2014 NWSA Annual Meeting  Probabilistic ENSO Forecast.  Shows Neutral phase through JJA  Then shifts to a higher probability of El Nino phase by JAS.

2014 NWSA Annual Meeting SEASONAL FIRE WEATHER FORECAST USING SEASONAL LONG LEAD FORECAST (SLLO) CHARTS. INTERPRETATION BY GARY BENNETT - METEOROLOGIST

2014 NWSA Annual Meeting  This is the March temperature SLLO.  Above (A) average temperatures to continue over the SW.  Equal Chances (EC) over the rest of the NW, mid west and East.  Below (B) average temperature anomaly over the Great Lakes Region.

2014 NWSA Annual Meeting  Precipitation SLLO for March.  Below (B) average anomaly over SoCal, Arizona, and western NM.  Above (A) average for eastern Oregon, southern Idaho, northern Nevada and northern Utah.  Rest of the U.S. is Equal Chances (EC).

2014 NWSA Annual Meeting  AMJ SLLO Temperature graphic.  Above (A) average anomaly has now spread north and east across the U.S.  Northern Great Lakes is still in the Below (B) category.  Rest of the U.S. is EC.  Alaska is also Above (A) average.

2014 NWSA Annual Meeting  MJJ Temperature graphic.  The Above (A) average anomaly is still very present over much of the west, SW, and east.  Equal Chances (EC) continues over the northern tier states.  Above (A) average remains over Alaska.

2014 NWSA Annual Summary  MJJ Precipitation graphic.  Below (B) average over the northwest coastal area, and the Gulf Coast area.  Rest of the U.S. is Equal Chances (EC) including Alaska.

2014 NWSA Annual Meeting  JJA Temperature Graphic.  The Above (A) average temperature anomaly has strengthened across the U.S. and Alaska.  Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Regions remain (EC).

2014 NWSA Annual Meeting  JJA Precipitation Chart.  Equal Chances (EC) over all parts of the U. S and Alaska.

2014 NWSA Annual Meeting  JAS Temperature SLLO.  Not a lot of change as the temperature anomaly is strong over all areas of the U.S. except the upper Midwest and Great Lakes.  Alaska remains Above (A) average.

2014 NWSA Annual Meeting  JAS Precipitation SLLO.  No changes as model has Equal Chances (EC) over all of the U.S. and Alaska.

2014 NWSA Annual Meeting  ASO Temperature SLLO.  Still seeing Above (A) average temperature anomaly over the West, Intermountain West, and Northeast.  Equal Chances (EC) over the mid West and East Central coast.  Alaska is still above (A) but shrinking.

2014 NWSA Annual Meeting  Again no changes to the Precipitation SLLO for ASO.  All areas are Equal Chances (EC).

2014 NWSA Annual Meeting  SON Temperature SLLO.  Again we see the Above (A) average anomaly for Temperature spread out across the U.S.  Some weakening and an eastward shift with the strongest anomaly over the 4 corners area.  Northeast is still Above (A) average.

2014 NWSA Annual Meeting  SON Precipitation SLLO.  Again NO Changes as all areas are Equal Chances (EC).

2014 NWSA Annual Meeting  OND Temperature SLLO.  The Above (A) average SLLO for Temperature has moved east into the Gulf States, Mid West and Northeast.  West is Equal Chances (EC)

2014 NWSA Annual Meeting  OND Precipitation SLLO.  Again the precipitation SLLO is showing Equal Chances (EC).  We are beginning to change over to winter time climatology.

2014 NWSA Annual Meeting  Are there any Questions or Comments?