ShakeOut M 7.8 Earthquake on the San Andreas Fault: Initial Damage Assessment & Impacts on Critical Lifeline Infrastructure Ken Hudnut (USGS) November.

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Presentation transcript:

ShakeOut M 7.8 Earthquake on the San Andreas Fault: Initial Damage Assessment & Impacts on Critical Lifeline Infrastructure Ken Hudnut (USGS) November 12–16, November 2008Situation Report Los Alamitos, California

USGS Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) Lucy Jones, Chief Scientist Dale Cox, Project Manager Sue Perry, Staff Scientist Key Partnerships and a Large Collaboration 10 Section Leaders Earth and Computer Science Ken Hudnut, USGS - also: Rob Graves (URS) & Brad Aagaard (USGS) Dan Ponti, USGS Mike Reichle, CGS Engineering Keith Porter, EERI Hope Seligson, MMI Engineering Public Health Kim Shoaf, UCLA Disaster Sociology Dennis Mileti, Seismic Safety Commission Jim Goltz, Governor’s Office of Emergency Services Disaster Economics Anne Wein, USGS Richard Bernknopf, USGS More than 300 Panelists, Experts, Special Studies Download reports at ShakeOut Scenario Development

Disaster vs. Catastrophe How will the local & national economy handle this earthquake? What makes a Katrina catastrophe? Economic Activity/ Wealth Time

Palm Springs Los Angeles Bakersfield Compare with 1994 Northridge earthquake: 50x smaller Magnitude deaths $40 billion Calculate Wave Propagation Compare with 2008 Chino Hills earthquake: 5000x smaller! Magnitude deaths Minimal damage

Fault Rupture - Large Offsets examples: 9 m ~2-3 m ~3 m Bombay Beach Salton Sea Lake Hughes Wairarapa fault, New Zealand - M earthquake 18.7 meter (~61 feet) right-lateral offset Landers, California M earthquake ~1 meter (3 feet) offset ~4 m

Fault Surface Rupture

Caltrans freeways (and major highways) fault crossings

Cajon Pass lifelines

Courtesy of Rob Graves (SCEC-URS) and Brad Aagaard, USGS

Devers substation

Situation Report Estimated damage (shaking, fire & long-term economic) $213 B Ten buildings collapsed; of these, 5 are high-rise; dozens red-tagged Fatalities 1,800; number requiring emergency room care 53,000 Freeways disrupted at I-10 (Indio) and I-15 (Cajon Pass); traffic snarled Critical lifelines severed at Cajon Pass and San Gorgonio Pass Fires have started to get out of control in several areas Water distribution system shattered; aftershocks adding to damage

Mw 7.8 Mexico City Earthquake, 1985 Sources: Bob Reitherman, CUREE Mehmet Celebi, USGS

Courtesy of Rob Graves (SCEC-URS) and Brad Aagaard, USGS