The US Economy Rebounds October 2009. How strong will the recovery be?

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Presentation transcript:

The US Economy Rebounds October 2009

How strong will the recovery be?

Payroll employment has contracted by over seven million

5 million jobs have gone in industry

And unemployment will continue to soar towards and above 10%

Bond yields remain low

Cash for clunkers caused spike in sales – but will it last?

Vehicle output is back at 2008 levels

Signs of stabilisation of sentiment and property prices

No sustained recovery likely without some asset price recovery

Younger consumers are routinely more optimistic!

And business CEOs starting to see signs of a upturn

Relaxation of monetary policy seems to have prevented a confidence rout

And tech stocks are improving

Partly because mortgages are cheaper to service

But new home sales remain very weak

The dollar continues to sag v the Euro

But are the Chinese preventing a further Yuan-$ adjustment?

A cheaper $ and recession has brought an improved trade balance

Including small surplus with Japan

Better trade balance but the fiscal deficit looks horrific