NAME SWG-7.5 30 th Annual NOAA Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop State College, Pennsylvania Oct. 28, 2005.

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Presentation transcript:

NAME SWG th Annual NOAA Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop State College, Pennsylvania Oct. 28, 2005

Meeting Objectives Review science findings from the 2004 NAME-EOP and parallel efforts Review and update the list of NAME ‘synthesis products’ and ‘value-added’ NAME data products outlined in the SWG-7 report Update NAME research issues –NAME science questions –NAME research foci Coordinated ongoing and future activities (e.g. NAMAP2)

NAME S&I Plan Research Objectives Improve understanding and simulation of: –warm season convective processes in complex terrain (Tier 1); –intraseasonal variability of the monsoon (Tier 2); –the response of the warm season atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns to slowly varying, potentially predictable oceanic and continental surface boundary conditions (Tier 3); – the evolution of the North American monsoon system and its variability.

NAME S&I Plan Research Questions Tier I Research Questions: How are low-level circulations along the Gulf of California / west slopes of the Sierra Madre Occidental related to the diurnal cycle of moisture and convection? What is the relationship between moisture transport and rainfall variability (e.g. forcing of surge events; onset of monsoon details)? What is the typical life cycle of diurnal convective rainfall? Where along the western slope of the Sierra Madre Occidental is convective development preferred? What are the dominant sources of precipitable moisture for monsoon precipitation over southwestern North America? What are the fluxes of energy and water from the land surface to the atmosphere across the core monsoon region, and how do these fluxes evolve in time during the warm season?

NAME S&I Plan Research Questions Tier II Research Questions: How important are interactions between Tropical Easterly Waves and Gulf of California moisture surges in the prediction of monsoon precipitation? What is the nature of the relationship between the MJO, tropical cyclone activity and monsoon precipitation? What portion of the skill of summer precipitation forecasts, in addition to that already harvested from ENSO, will arise from an ability to forecast MJO activity over a season? What is the physical setting for the bimodal distribution (i.e. wet-dry-wet) in warm season precipitation over Mexico and Central America and what factors influence its interannual variability? How does the phase of the MJO relate to the frequency and intensity of hurricanes and tropical storms in the eastern Pacific and Atlantic basins? How does this tropical variability influence NAMS?

NAME S&I Plan Research Questions Tier III Research Questions: How is the evolution of the warm season precipitation regime over North America related to the seasonal evolution of the boundary conditions? What are the interrelationships between year-to-year variations in the boundary conditions (both land surface and adjacent sea surface), the atmospheric circulation and the continental hydrologic regime? What are the links, if any, between the strength of the summer monsoon in southwestern North America and summertime precipitation over the central United States? Can numerical models reproduce the observed summer precipitation in average years and years with ENSO/PDO influence? How much of the seasonal predictability of large-scale warm season precipitation anomalies can be downscaled to local precipitation variability? What are the relationships between extreme weather events (e.g. floods, droughts, heat waves, hurricanes), climate variability and long-term trends?

NAME Synthesis Products & NAME Value-Added Products

NAME Milestones FY04 - Implement NAME 2004 Field Experiment FY05 - Evaluate impact of data from NAME 2004 on operational analyses FY06 - Assess global and regional model simulations of the 2004 North American monsoon (NAMAP2) FY07 - Evaluate impact of changes in model parameterization schemes (NAME CPT) FY07 – Quantify the relative influence of oceanic and land surface boundary conditions on simulations of the NAME 2004 monsoon FY08 - Measure improvements in model simulations of monsoon onset and variability (includes NOAA operationl GFS/CFS) FY09 - Implement recommended changes to operational climate forecast systems to improve skill of warm season precipitation forecasts The NAME milestones have been updated starting in FY07 to emphasize NAME Tier 3 activities.