Sulfate Discussion WRAP Meeting – Tucson, AZ January 10/11, 2006 Joe Adlhoch - Air Resource Specialists, Inc.

Overview How much of baseline regional haze in WRAP states is due to sulfate? How much of baseline regional haze in WRAP states is due to sulfate? What are the historical trends in sulfate concentrations? What are the historical trends in sulfate concentrations? What are the contributions of natural and manmade emissions to sulfate? What are the contributions of natural and manmade emissions to sulfate? How are emissions expected to change by 2018? How are emissions expected to change by 2018? How is visibility expected to change? How is visibility expected to change? How does this compare with the glidepath? How does this compare with the glidepath? Selected case studies Selected case studies

IMPROVE Monitoring Locations

Baseline Extinction: 20% Worst Days

Baseline Extinction: 20% Best Days

Baseline Sulfate: 20% Worst Days

Historical Trends in 20% Worst Days: Total and Sulfate Extinction 16 year trends (1989 – 2004) required 12 complete years of data 16 year trends (1989 – 2004) required 12 complete years of data 8 year trends (1997 – 2004) required 6 complete years of data 8 year trends (1997 – 2004) required 6 complete years of data Theil slopes (Mm -1 /yr) calculated for all sites with sufficient data Theil slopes (Mm -1 /yr) calculated for all sites with sufficient data P-values of 0.2 required to identify trend as significant P-values of 0.2 required to identify trend as significant Changes in monitoring or analytical protocol over the years may affect trends Changes in monitoring or analytical protocol over the years may affect trends

16-yr Trends 8-yr Trends

Historical Trends, 20% Worst Days Mount Rainier NP 16-yr decrease in Bext 8-yr decrease in SO4

Historical Trends, 20% Worst Days Chiricahua NM 8-yr decrease in SO4 8-yr increase in Bext

Historical Trends, 20% Worst Days Redwood NP 16-yr decrease in Bext 16-yr decrease in SO4

Historical Trends, 20% Worst Days Rocky Mountain NP 8-yr increase in Bext 16-yr decrease in SO4

Anthropogenic and Natural SO2 Emissions by State (Plan02)

Total WRAP Region SO2 and NOx Emissions (2002, 2018, and difference)

All SO 2 Emissions

Gridded Model Results for Annual Average Sulfate Mass Annual average modeled mass (not 20% worst days) Annual average modeled mass (not 20% worst days) 2002 and and 2018 Difference (2018 – 2002) Difference (2018 – 2002) Ratio (2018/2002) Ratio (2018/2002)

Modeled 2002 SO4 Modeled 2018 SO4

Baseline and Projected 2018 Extinction: 20% Worst Days 2000 – 2004 Baseline ExtinctionProjected 2018 Extinction

Baseline and Projected 2018 Sulfate Extinction: 20% Worst Days 2000 – 2004 Baseline Sulfate Extinction Projected 2018 Sulfate Extinction

Baseline dv and Projected 2018 dv Reduction: 20% Worst Days 2000 – 2004 Baseline DeciviewsProjected 2018 Deciview Reduction

Variation in Baseline Deciview Values

Percent of 2018 Target Reduction Achieved

Mount Rainier, WA

2002 SO2 Emissions: Mount Rainier

2018 SO2 Reductions: Mount Rainier

Model Comparison: Mount Rainier, WA

Mount Rainier, WA2002 IMPROVE Data 2002 Model Results

2018 Model Changes: Mount Rainier, WA

Trends: Mount Rainier, WA

Baseline Variability (dv) Baseline Variability by Species Glide Path: Mount Rainier, WA

Hells Canyon, OR/ID

2002 SO2 Emissions: Hells Canyon

2018 SO2 Reductions: Hells Canyon

Model Comparison: Hells Canyon, OR

Hells Canyon, OR/ID2002 IMPROVE Data 2002 Model Results

2018 Model Changes: Hells Canyon, OR

Baseline Variability (dv) Baseline Variability by Species Glide Path: Hells Canyon, OR/ID