Seeds for the panel discussion K. Z. Nanjo (ERI, Univ. of Tokyo) International symposium “Toward constructing earthquake forecast systems for Japan” 27 May 2009 at ERI, Univ. Tokyo

Seeds  Proposed “Rules of the game”  Preparation for model submission  How to access data  Publication  How to access experimental results

Proposed “Rules of the game” -Testing regions Default regions (d≤30km) with grid spacing s=0.1° Invite test regions -Testing classes (Invite forecast models) 1-day forecast 1-year forecast 5-year forecast -Future earthquakes that will be forecast: The revised JMA bulletin. No declustering. Number of earthquakes in a predefined time window for each magnitude bin in the range 5.0≤M≤9.0 (0.1 magnitude unit steps) at each predefined grid node within a predefined testing region. -Forecast evaluation methods CSEP suite Invite forecast evaluation methods

Proposal  Test regions -1. inland Japan (d≤30km, s=0.1°) -2. All Japan (d≤100km, s=0.1°) -3. Kanto (d≤100km, s=0.05°) Two layers: 0-30 & km  Test classes -1 day: code submission -3 months: code submission -1 yrs; table or code submission -3 a -5 yrs: table or code submission) -Start time of the forecast periods 01/09/2009 for all the classes -Model & table submission deadline 01/08/2009 for all the classes 1. Default all Japan with d≤30km 2. Same with d≤100km 1. Default all Japan with d≤30km 2. Same with d≤100km 3. Kanto with d≤100km 4. Off Ibaraki with d≤100km proposed by Matsumura (not considered in the experiment)  Target Magnitude -M= M=

Proposal  Evaluation methods  CSEP official suite  Imoto’s likelihood method

Depth histograms All Japan M>2 events in % for d≤30km 80% for d≤60km 88% for d≤90km 90% for d≤120km Kanto M>2 events in % for d≤30km 78% for d≤60km 88% for d≤90km 93% for d≤120km

M C maps for seismicity in 2007 d≤0-30 km d≤30-60 km d≤60-90 km d≤ km -GR-based EMR method (Woessner & Wiemer, 2005) M C : magnitude at the deviation from the GR law -Collect the 200 nearest events to each node M C =0.6

Annual number of earthquakes  Japan (JMA)  All Japan  CA (ANSS: 31-43°, °)  Kanto

Preparation for model submission  Output -Grid node list: Forecast seismicity rates at location in the list -ForecastML: Output a numerical table containing the forecast rates in the format according the template  Helpful stuff (D. Schorlemmer) -A template to convert data to Forecast ML formatted table -Guideline for preparing a forecast model (CSEP webpage)  Submission -Program code that can create a data file formatted in the ForecastML -ForecastML formatted table  Each modeler and the Testing Center will work on a case- by-case basis on finding a solution

How to access data  Idea -Modelers may need the JMA data and/or GPS data for their model optimization and other purpose before model submission  How to access and share both data -H. Tsuruoka, ERI

Publication  Journal: Special issue in “Earth, Planet, Space”  Idea -Special issue in SRL 2007 for the RELM testing -Planned special issue in Ann. Geophys. for the Italian CSEP testing in 2009  Proposed contents -Preface -Result of the Japan testing since 2008 summer -Completeness study for Japan -Submitted forecast models -Submitted evaluation methods -Exploring the possibility of next-generation models  Proposed deadline for submission: 31/03/2010  Number of expected papers

How to access experimental results  Open to researchers but close to the public while models are under test  Password-protected webpage