11 American Community Survey: Break in Series Due to Controls Prepared for the 2010 SDC-CIC Joint Steering Committee Meetings February 24, 2010 Presented.

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Presentation transcript:

11 American Community Survey: Break in Series Due to Controls Prepared for the 2010 SDC-CIC Joint Steering Committee Meetings February 24, 2010 Presented by: Mark Asiala Department of Commerce U.S. Census Bureau Washington, DC 20233

2 Background The 2010 Census offers the opportunity to greatly improve the accuracy of the population estimates. As information is incorporated from the decennial census, the potential for significant shifts in the population estimates is present. Because we use the population estimates as controls, these shifts can also cause a break in the series of ACS estimates.

3 Education of Data Users The Census Bureau will need to alert ACS data users to this issue to help prevent misinterpretation of the year-to-year change. Outlets include: –Web site –Presentations –Partnerships with other groups

4 Key Concepts for Handout Postcensal estimates Released annually Identified by their vintage Time series is recalculated for each vintage Controls for ACS multiyear data are equal to the average of the population estimates. No issues if all population estimates have the same census as their base.

Key Concepts for Handout Intercensal estimates Typically release once per decade Covers the time series from one census to the next census (e.g., Census 2000 to 2010 Census) Smoothes out any error present in the postcensal estimates when compared to the next census (i.e., 2010) The intercensal estimates for 2000—2010 make use of information from both Census 2000 and 2010 Census. 5

6 Highlights from the Handout The use of 2010 Census information will be phased in over time. Release year 2011 (2010 ACS Data) –Simplified 2010 postcensal population estimates –Preliminary intercensal population estimates for 2006—2009. –Subcounty controls will use internal postcensal estimates based on Census 2000 adjusted to agree with updated county controls

7 Highlights from the Handout (continued) Release year 2012 (2011 ACS Data) –Establish the “steady state”, 2011 and 2012 ACS data should have no issues due to controls. –Use postcensal controls for year 2010 forward, vintage –Use final intercensal controls for years prior to –Subcounty controls will use the same source as the county controls

8 Summary What to expect? –In release year 2011, the use of updated county controls will have an impact on most estimates. –In release year 2012, the use of updated subcounty controls should have a more focused impact on subcounty estimates.

9 Contact Information