Addressing global problems Program goals & opportunities Irrigation SRP Workshop. Addis, May 2012

Reasons for pessimism Reasons for optimisim Mainstreaming CRP research into development Operationalizing CRP 5

Reasons for pessimisim Population pressure Resource scarcity Agriculture not keeping pace Planetary limits

Data: CIESEN Population change

Data: CIESEN

Population growth likely to continue in many areas

Areas which will experience increasing pressure in the coming decades Total fertility rate Royal Society Report. May 2012

Squeeze on land & water resources Data: FAO

Cereal yield (kg/ha) Data :World Bank Agriculture struggling to keep up with demand

Some responses more eco-efficient than others Data: World Bank

How much more can global systems tolerate?

Reasons for optimism Scope for intensification –Substantial untapped potential Scope for better sharing of benefits & risks –Institutions define sustainability New political discourse –Vision for the future

Absolute intensification rates

Relative intensification rates

…in relation to population growth

In summary: substantial scope for intensification RegionArea (M ha) FYPYGap (%)Change, % /yr Kenya SSA Brasil Iowa, US ~15?302.0 China Egypt, India Data for Maize (and some Millet) Fisher, 2009

Sharing of benefits & risks “the myth of universal selfishness endures because it’s not entirely wrong – only mostly so” – Benkler, 2011

A new political discourse

People as consumers

People as enablers ….to capture people’s capacity to be part of the solution “The challenge is not only to produce 50 per cent more food by 2030, but also to do it in a way that is more sustainable and more resilient” –Evans, 2012

Urbanization increasing

Mainstreaming CRP research into development

Gross National Income Agriculture contribution to GDP (%) African basins Mainstreaming research into development S & E Asia LAC

Basic support & Protection Productivity increase Building resilience Basic needs Meeting urgent demand growth Emerging need for sustainability Building productivity while protecting existing support Invest in agricultural basics Big invest in agric. Resource-sharing & protection Developing pathways out of farming Benefit-sharing (trading) Demand management Supply-chain management Rainfed systems Rainfed systems Irrigated systems Irrigated systems Resource recovery Resource recovery River basins Research integrates around the development process

Broad areas of change Intensification Improved sharing of benefits and risks Supporting a new political discourse

Irrigation SRP problem sets Revitalizing Asia’s public irrigation system Irrigation in Africa Managing GW overdraft in S Asia Revving up the Ganges Water Machine Reducing salinity along the Indus and Central Asia IntensificationBetter sharingNew politics

CRP Operation Research activities will Tackle difficult problems –Multi-discliplinary –New solutions built from old Support development processes –Pro-poor, gender sensitive –Understanding roles of institutions Ecosystem aware –Recognizing role of ecosystems to livelihoods

CRP Operation SRPs organize science from centers NEW solutions to difficult problems Science targets change in basins / regions Identified, analyzed, prioritized Research supported by gender, poverty and institutional analysis… …overseen by monitoring, evaluation and learning credible, relevant and legitimate Science committee oversees process

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