Kristin Gilroy, PhD International Center for Integrated Water Resources Management 24 February 2016 Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis: Bridging the.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Guidance Notes on Safe Health Facilities Sanjaya Bhatia Focal Point Disaster Resilient Schools & Hospitals.

Advertisements

LIVING WITH RISK : AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO REDUCING SOCIETAL VULNERABILITY TO DROUGHT ISDR AD HOC DISCUSSION GROUP ON DROUGHT ISDR TF April 2003.

DS-01 Disaster Risk Reduction and Early Warning Definition

M.M.M. Aheeyar Hector Kobbekaduwa Agararian Research and Training Institute, Colombo- Sri Lanka Building Capacities at Ground Level in the Context of Climate.

National Adaptation Strategies - UK 21 March 2005 Andy Deacon Global Atmosphere Division.

Outreach, Education and Technical Assistance: What We Can Do Differently Jurij Homziak Lake Champlain Sea Grant.

AIACC Regional Study AS07 Southeast Asia Regional Vulnerability to Changing Water Resources and Extreme Hydrological due to Climate Change.

1 Preparing Washington for a Changing Climate An Integrated Climate Change Response Strategy Department of Ecology Hedia Adelsman, Executive Policy Advisor.

World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water Addressing climate variability, extremes and natural disasters for LDC.

Climate Change Impacts in the United States Third National Climate Assessment [Name] [Date] Decision Support: Connecting Science, Risk Perception, and.

Developing Tools to Enable Water Resource Managers to Plan for & Adapt to Climate Change Amy Snover, PhD Climate Impacts Group University of Washington.

Enhancing the Climate Resilience of Africa’s Infrastructure ACPC Role.

The Resilient Coasts Initiative A Partnership Response.

Risk and Resilience: A Canadian Perspective on Climate Change Adaptation Donald S. Lemmen, PhD Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Directorate Natural.

Climate Futures and Oregon’s Coastal Communities A Survey and Strategy to Address the Effects of Climate Change on the Oregon Coast.

Background Roundtable of Federal Hazard Mitigation Partners in the Pacific Islands (FHMPPI) (2002 – 2003) Pacific Risk Management `Ohana (PRiMO) (2004.

An initiative of the ACP Group of States funded by the European Union Global Climate Change Alliance: Intra-ACP Programme Training Module Mainstreaming.

Adaptation in Eastern and Southern Africa Supporting ground level and policy change Jo-Ellen Parry, Program Manager

Reducing Vulnerability at the Community Level Jo-Ellen Parry, Program Manager Adaptation in Eastern and Southern Africa.

The Adaptation Policy Framework Bill Dougherty Stockholm Environment Institute – Boston Center Manila April 2004 An overview of the new UNDP-GEF product.

23 rd September 2008 HFA Progress Report Disaster Risk Reduction in South Asia P.G.Dhar Chakrabarti Director SAARC Disaster Management Centre New Delhi.

Overview of the Colorado River Basin Water Supply and Demand Study Urban Water Institute 19 th Annual Water Policy Conference August 22-24, 2012 San Diego.

Approaches and Mainstreaming of Ecosystem-based Adaptation in Europe International workshop “Mainstreaming an ecosystem based approach to climate change.

Cross-cutting areas of Capacity Building and Adaptation UNDP Workshop for NIS Environmental Focal Points June 2004.

Update on the U.S. Climate Change Science Program UN Framework Convention on Climate Change Subsidiary Body Meeting June 21, 2004 Linda V. Moodie Senior.

Disaster risk reduction – How did we get here?

Water Resources Management within the context of Climate Change: The Case of a Small Island Developing State (SIDS) Geoffrey Marshall Hydrogeologist Water.

Context Adaptation is needed, and is moving up the political and development agendas. Lots of money beginning to go into adaptation through both public.

South Eastern Latin America LA26: Impact of GC on coastal areas of the Rio de la Plata: Sea level rise and meteorological effects LA27: Building capacity.

Climate Change Adaptation : Coastal community Responds… Ravadee Prasertcharoensuk Sustainable Development Foundation (SDF)

Development and Transfer of Technologies UNFCCC Expert Workshop On Technology Information Technology Transfer Network and Matchmaking Systems: a LA & C.

Part-financed by the European Union ICT Toolkit (WP5) Stockholm Environment Institute Tallinn Centre Heidi Tuhkanen, SEI-Tallinn Centre

Adaptation knowledge needs and response under the UNFCCC process Adaptation Knowledge Day V Session 1: Knowledge Gaps Bonn, Germany 09 June 2014 Rojina.

1 Mid-Term Review of the Hyogo Framework for Action Roadmap to Disaster Risk Reduction in the Americas & HFA Mid-Term Review.

Seite 1 Dr. Ashish Chaturvedi May 11, 2011 ekDRM.

Module 9 Mainstreaming in country monitoring systems Country-led environmental and climate change mainstreaming (specialist course) Training materials.

Where the Research Meets the Road: Climate Science, Uncertainties, and Knowledge Gaps First National Expert and Stakeholder Workshop on Water Infrastructure.

Margaret Barihaihi National Programme Coordinator, World Vision - ACCRA Uganda.

Vulnerability and Adaptation Kristie L. Ebi, Ph.D., MPH Executive Director, WGII TSU PAHO/WHO Workshop on Vulnerability and Adaptation Guidance 20 July.

Better water resources management -- Greater resilience today, more effective adaptation tomorrow GWP Perspective on water and climate change adaptation.

Approaches and Mainstreaming of Ecosystem-based Adaptation in Europe International workshop “Mainstreaming an ecosystem based approach to climate change.

Institutional Adaptations to Climate Change: Comparative Study of Dryland River Basins in Canada and Chile A project supported by the Major Collaborative.

Dr. A.K.M. Saiful Islam Dr. Sujit Kumar Bala Associate Professor, IWFM Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology Staff Training program on Water.

Decadal Scale Climate Information, Climate Risk Management & Adaptation.

UNFCCC Workshop on the preparation of national communications of NAI Parties, Manila, april 2004 Methodologies for, Approaches to, and Frameworks.

Research Progress Discussions of Coordinated Emissions Research Suggestions to Guide this Initiative Focus on research emission inventories Do not interfere.

“America’s NOAA National Weather Service: Protecting Lives, Livelihoods, and A Way of Life” Water Resources Vision 2020 Deliver a broader suite of improved.

HFA Progress and Updates Consultative Meeting of National Disaster Platform on Feb 17, 2013 Jishnu Subedi Institute of Engineering Tribhuvan University.

Guidelines for non-Annex I National Communications Implications for Assessment of Impacts of, and Adaptation to Climate Change Asia-Pacific Regional Workshop.

The AIACC Project Assessments of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change Neil Leary, AIACC Science Director AIACC Regional Workshop for Latin America.

Waisea Vosa Climate Change Unit Division of Political and Treaties Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation.

COMMUNITY-BASED DROUGHT PREPAREDNESS IN ARIZONA: A MODEL FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION Stefanie Woodward Mentor: Dr. Barron Orr.

Integrated Drought Risk Management Towards proactive drought management approaches February 2016, Climate Services for improved Water Resources Management.

IADB REGIONAL POLICY DIALOGUE June 25-26, Presented by : Ronald Jackson, Director General, ODPEM, Jamaica.

Communicating community-based adaptation: Experiences from the Adaptation Learning Programme Capacity building workshop on CBA for youth organising committee.

Title Presenter, Position, Organisation. The Deep South National Science Challenge Te Kōmata o Te Tonga.

Research Progress Discussions of Coordinated Emissions Research Suggestions to Guide this Initiative Focus on research emission inventories Do not interfere.

Dr. John T. Wells, Dean and Director, VIMS Dr. Mark W. Luckenbach, Associate Dean, VIMS Dr. Morris Foster, Vice President for Research, ODU February 24,

Alan F. Hamlet Dennis P. Lettenmaier Center for Science in the Earth System Climate Impacts Group and Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering.

Preparing for Climate Change: British Columbia’s Adaptation Strategy Thomas White Climate Action Secretariat 26 January 2010.

Using Analysis and Tools to Inform Adaptation and Resilience Decisions -- the U.S. national experiences Jia Li Climate Change Division U.S. Environmental.

Climate Change and Sustainable Agricultural Intensification

PEAC Review Workshop: Lessons & Recommendations

APPROACHES, METHODS AND TOOLS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT, VULNERABILITY

Background to the Regional Workshop

South Eastern Latin America

Gender mainstreaming in environmental

LA06 Assessment of Impacts and Adaptation Measures for the Water Resources Sector Due to Extreme Events Under Climate Change Conditions. REGIONAL PROJECT.

GEO - Define an Architecture Integrated Solutions

Guiding Principles for Climate Risk Management Initiatives

Presentation transcript:

Kristin Gilroy, PhD International Center for Integrated Water Resources Management 24 February 2016 Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis: Bridging the Gap between Science, Engineering, and Policy

Alliance for Global Water Adaptation (AGWA) ( Nov 2011 Workshop hosted by the World Bank: “Including Climate Change in Hydrologic Design [..]” Problem to make decisions under climate change and navigate through tools and best practices? AGWA Core team created: World Bank, IWR, SIWI, Deltares, U. Massachussets-Amherst, Pegasys, Rijkswaterstaat Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis: A technical guidance for water resources managers, donors, agencies A community of practice to innovate by sector and region A complement to the World Bank ‘Decision Tree’

Water Management Planning Cycle Purpose of CRIDA Engineers have always dealt with uncertainty What has changed? Safety Margins/ Freeboard How should engineers incorporate climate change information into the water management planning process?

Two Key Elements of CRIDA Decision ScalingAdaptation Pathways Available climate data doesn’t always meet the problem at hand: time-scale differs, models perform poorly in geographic region, observed data not available for downscaling Limiting analysis to GCM derived scenarios confines your decision space Allow stakeholders to define system failure With limited information, decision makers risk over- or under-designing solutions Adaptation pathways illustrate flexible strategies to the decision maker Choosing an action that has many transfer points in the future provides a low regret option as the science progresses Climate Response Map for a Proposed Run-of-the-River Hydropower Project (Ray and Brown, 2015).

Where does CRIDA Fit into Planning Cycle? How does it influence decision making? Water Management Planning Cycle Identify Problems and Opportunities Vulnerability Assessment: Inventory and forecast conditions Formulate alternative plans Evaluate alternative plans Compare alternative plans Select alternative plan Decision Scaling Adaptation Pathways Decision Point 1: Level of Analysis Decision Point 2: Additional Decision Criteria? Decision Point 3: Influence of institutional/gov’t capacity?

We need your help!!! Are those climate states plausible, suggesting high climate risk? How much uncertainty is there in available climate information? Water Resources System Type Key Hydrology StatisticConfidence & Existing Tools Rainfall dependent water Supply System Variability of flow or rainfall (monthly) Persistence (or auto-correlation) of low flows or rainfall (monthly) ?????? Glacial dominated water Supply System Persistence of high mean temperatures (weekly? monthly?) ?????? Flood Risk Reduction System Maximum annual peak flow (daily) Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curve (sub-daily) ?????? Coastal Risk Reduction Mean sea level (annual)?????? EcologicalAll the above??????

What does CRIDA add to traditional planning approaches? 1. A broader vulnerability assessment 2. Guidance on the necessary level of analysis 3. Adaptation pathways to illustrate the flexibility 4. Guidance on preferred pathway decision criteria & role of institutional capacity

Where does CRIDA fit in the 3 Pillars of Drought Preparedness?

What still needs to be done? Collaboration and Integration Opportunities w/ Climate Services for Enhanced Water Management Project Activity 1: Improve integrated drought risk management towards a policy for drought preparedness Activity 2: Training of multiple stakeholders to strengthen capacities on climate services targeting water resources management and to increase resilience to climate hazards Activity 3: Strengthening of the community of practice on dryland management (GWADI- LAC) to support development and implementation of climate risk management in the region Activity 4: Implementation of climate services to improve water management across spatial and temporal scales Activity 5: Building climate resilient watersheds while enhancing their ecosystem services

“Solum certum nihil esse certi” (the only certainty is uncertainty) - Pliny the Elder (23-79 A.D.), Historia Naturalis Questions?