The FAIRMODE PM modelling guide Laurence ROUIL Bertrand BESSAGNET FAIRMODE: 6th plenary meeting – April 2013

Objectives  An initiative within the FAIRMODE WG1 activity  Third guide document to support use of modelling approaches for the implementation of the air quality directives  The application of models under the European Union's Air Quality Directive: A technical reference guide. (EEA report 10/2011)  Guide on modelling Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) for air quality assessment and planning relevant to the European Air Quality Directive. (ETC/ACM Technical Paper 2011/15)  A new guide devoted to PM modelling. Challenges:  Avoiding repetition of the other guides  Reviewing all users’ concerns, PM being a very sensitive and difficult issue

Challenges with PM modelling  Exceedances of the PM10 limit values are still reported by a large number of Member States : notification processes with the European Commission on-going. Some MS are likely to be fined.  Member States must demonstrate how exceedances can be managed and avoided: evaluation of national and local action plans is needed  scenario analysis  They must demonstrate that areas and number of inhabitants exposed to PM exceedances is under control with the objective of no exposure  mapping  They must assess their own responsibility in terms of emissions in the occurrence of complex phenomena involving LRT, natural sources, complex chemistry...  understanding  General public pressure because of the well-known harmful impacts of PM on the human health

 It seems that everywhere PM concentrations do not decrease as expected in some areas Source: EEA

Objective of the guidance : promoting PM modelling  Over the ten past years, significant development of modelling and measurement research activity for dealing with PM challenges  Models become more and more mature and follow the development of observation networks :  evaluation/validation  Data assimilation  Improved understanding with the availability of PM compounds measurements  They are more and more widely used for decision making.... ... Providing that uncertainties are under control  Sources and emissions  Lack of knowledge about the chemical and dynamical processes (secondary organic aerosols formation, deposition..)  Sensitivity to boundary conditions

PM guide : table of content (i)  The document is conceived to answer or highlight questions the user dealing with policy applications should consider -> neither a scientific paper nor a list of tools, but an “operational” document  Not a review of current models : already covered in the previous guides  Along the document, concrete recommendations are proposed : “application guidance”  A large number of references where more information/data can be found  1INTRODUCTION  1.1General overview on modeling issues  1.2Applications of PM modelling for the European Air Quality Directive  2MAIN ISSUES RELATED TO PM MODELLING  2.1What should be modeled from aerosol typology and composition  2.2Uncertainties in PM modelling  2.3Linking models of different scales  2.4Sensitivity to boundary and initial conditions (Regional models)

PM guide : table of content (ii)  3EMISSION DATA  3.1 Sources of emission data: Bottom-up & Top-down inventories :   National contributions expected and input from FAIRMODE WG2  3.2Pre-treatment of emissions :Temporal disaggregation, Spatial re-gridding  3.3Residential sector emissions (static and dynamic)  3.4Traffic emissions (direct and indirect)  3.5Wind blown dust emissions  3.6Natural marine emissions  3.7Ammonia emissions  3.8Biogenic NO and VOC emissions  3.9Fire emissions  3.10Primary Organic Aerosol (POA) emissions  4METEOROLOGICAL DATA  4.1Meteorology in CTMs  4.2Meteorological drivers – downscaling  4.3Urban meteorology  4.4Expected impact of meteorological drivers on PM modelling 

PM guide : table of content (iii)  5QUALITY CONTROL AND EVALUATION  Remains to be written accounting for the FAIRMODE WG2 work (SG4 : benchamrking and model quality objectives)  6 PM MODELLING APPLICATIONS FOR THE AQ DIRECTIVE (AQD)  6.1 Modelling requirements for assessment and reporting exceedances  The AQ Directive requirements : what is requested  Use of models for assessment: how do models answer to them?  Explaining exceedances due to natural events: sources of data (incl. COPERNICUS/MACC) and methodologies  Reporting exceedance of PM limit values by winter sanding or salting of roads: to be completed...national contributions ?  Explaining exceedances due to transboudary pollution: to be completed especially with COPERNICUS/MACC inputs  6.2 Modelling requirements for source apportionment  Issues + national contribution. Still needs to be completed with results from WG2/SG2  6.3 Modelling requirements for planning and emission scenarios  How to run and assess model scenario runs : national contributions welcome !  6.4 Modelling requirements for information and forecasting  Issues for policy support and available tools and data (especially within the COPERNICUS/MACC services)

Next steps  Your feedback is highly expected !  Do you need (further) guidance and if yes on which topics?  How could we best take this up in a guide document?  Which elements of the draft PM Report do you appreciate and why (e.g. general info on the status of PM modelling or ‘application guidance’ as given in the draft document)?  Your contribution is still welcome  If you wish to illustrate some topics  If you wish to propose national methodologies, tools and references  If you do not agree with some points proposed in the document  Publication foreseen in 2013