The 2003 Wake-up Call: Predictable? “Normal” airmass flow Stagnant airmass flow 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 27-Jul29-Jul31-Jul 2-Aug 4-Aug 6-Aug8-Aug.

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Presentation transcript:

The 2003 Wake-up Call: Predictable? “Normal” airmass flow Stagnant airmass flow Jul29-Jul31-Jul 2-Aug 4-Aug 6-Aug8-Aug 10-Aug 12-Aug 14-Aug 16-Aug 18-Aug20-Aug22-Aug24-Aug26-Aug28-Aug30-Aug Temperature (C) Isoprene (ppt) Estimated up to 700 extra deaths attributable to air pollution (O 3 and PM10) in UK during this period O 3 > 100 ppb on 6 consecutive days 2pm, 6 th Aug, 2003 Compiled from UK ozone network data Isoprene c/o Ally Lewis Thanks to M Pilling, T Kurosu, K Chance, R Martin, R Sokhi, A Lewis

Resolution of new satellite data allows study UK AQ from space Data from OMI even better (not shown) GOME NO 1x1 o SCIA NO 0.4x0.4 o, Aug 2004 Aug 1997 NAEI NO X emissions as NO 2, 2002 GOME and SCIA NO 2 c/o R. Martin Length of day [hours] Day of Year Edinburgh, 56N Denver, 40N Cloud cover [%], ISCCP August

General public only interested in pollution levels at 1.8m above surface Numerical Chemical Weather Prediction (NCWP): PM, O 3, NO x Guiding AQ and Climate Policy: PM, O 3, NO x ? Some addtn science: surface fluxes, aerosol-chemistry processes, dynamics “Expect harmful levels of ozone and PM2.5 over the next couple of days; please keep small children and animals inside. Transatlantic pollution represents 20% of today’s UK surface ozone.” Annual mean stats UK AQ strategyEU directive NO 2 (ann mean) 40 µg m -3 (21ppb) PM10 (ann mean) 40 µg m -3 (2004) 20 µg m -3 (2010) 40 µg m -3 (2004) 20 µg m -3 (2010) O 3 (8-hour run. mean) 100 µg m -3 (50ppb) as daily max by end 2005 (max exceed 10/year) 120 µg m -3 (60ppb) by 2010 (max exceed <25 mean of 3 years) Currently no strong commitment to PM2.5(!) (Current instruments probably not accurate enough to monitor AQ standards) 2010

The increasing role of BVOCs: constraints from OMI HCHO? Stewart et al, 2003 Isoprene Monoterpenes BVOC fluxes for a “hot, sunny” day BOE: ppb isoprene = 1-5x10 12 molec cm -2 s -1 (cf. SE USA 5-7x10 12 molec cm -2 s -1 ) HCHO hours OH hours h, OH VOC Relating HCHO to BVOC emissions [molec cm -2 ] OMI HCHO 2 <0.3 NO 2 production ppb h -1 Isoprene HCHO c/o Jenny Stanton NO + RO 2  NO 2 + RO, Aug 2003

UK PM: primary and secondary sources Unclear what PM characteristics affect health Secondary PM is formed from: –Oxidation of organic compounds –Oxidation of SO 2 –Difficult to estimate in inventories – need models and data Liu et al MISR work relevant? –Assume dominant aerosol type in column Also strong regional contributions to PM: –Saharan desert dust –Sea salt aerosol –Secondary organic PM MISR Surface PM2.5 = Model Surface [PM2.5] x MISR AOT Model AOT 2003 roadside PM10 More formal (general) model/data melding probably necessary

Current Development in Modelling UK AQ UK currently using MODELS 3 (MM5 + CMAQ) for AQ 1) UM mesoscale CTM UKMO Unified Model 2) Unified heterogeneous chemistry scheme AQ-climate links AQ Model Chem-Clim Model Similar equations for data assimilation and inverse modelling J(x) = ½(y o – H(x)) T (E+F) -1 (y o -H(x)) +½(x-x b ) T B -1 (x-x b ) Multi-species analyses – inter-species error covariance? Radiance versus retrieved products? Limit of linearization of non-linear oxidant chemistry? Global vs urban chemistry? Subgrid scale processes?