1 Current and planned research with data collected during the IFEX/RAINEX missions Robert Rogers NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division

2 NOAA Intensity Forecasting Experiment (IFEX) GOALS: Through a partnership with HRD, NHC, and EMC, improve forecasts of tropical cyclone intensity by 1)developing and refining observing technologies that improve real-time monitoring of TC intensity and structure; 2)collecting observations that span the TC lifecycle in a variety of environments to initialize and evaluate the operational numerical modeling system (e.g., HWRF and next generation global models); and 3)conducting research to improve our understanding of the processes important in TC intensity and structure change (e.g., external and internal impacts on TC structure and intensity, phase changes of moisture and surface fluxes of heat, moisture, and momentum)

3 GOAL 1: New observing technology Real-time Doppler Radar analyses Airborne Doppler radar: 1st transmission of real-time quality controlled observations and analyses to NHC from aircraft in Hurricane Katrina (27 August, again on 28 August). Can allow for the diagnosis of wind structure and intensity in real-time 38 real-time analyses (including Katrina, Ophelia, Rita, Wilma were sent via SATCOM to NHC Lower-fuselage radar image for Hurricane Katrina 1028 UTC 29 August 1-km altitude km Doppler-derived winds at 1 km Vertical cross-section of Doppler winds kt

4 GOAL 1: Refined observing technology Improved SFMR algorithm for high winds SFMR: 1st season with both NOAA WP-3D aircraft operating new commercial SFMR transmitting surface wind estimates back to NHC. Numerous storms with winds>50 m/s enabled evaluation and modification of operational algorithm to improve surface wind estimation >50 m/s. See Katrina Low bias at high wind speeds reduced UTC 29 August H*Wind analysis (including Air Force flight-level winds) 0930 UTC 29 August H*Wind analysis (including NOAA SFMR winds)

5 GOAL 2: Lifecycle measurements for model initialization and evaluation Dennis (tropical storm to post- landfall) - together with NASA ER-2 (TCSP) Gert (tropical disturbance to landfall) - together with NASA ER-2 (TCSP) Katrina (tropical storm to landfall) - together with NRL P-3 (RAINEX) Ophelia (tropical depression to extratropical transition) - together with NRL P-3 (RAINEX) Rita (tropical storm to hours before landfall) - together with NRL P-3 (RAINEX) 5 tropical cyclones flown from beginning to end of life cycle:

6 Hurricane Ivan 750 hPa streamlines and isotachs (m/s) valid 18 UTC Sept (from Liu et al. 2006) First-guess field With Airborne Doppler data GOAL 2: Lifecycle measurements for model initialization and evaluation Example of use of Airborne Doppler data in HWRF 3-DVar scheme

7 Example: MM5 simulations of Hurricane Dennis 1.5 km Doppler winds (m/s) 850 hPa MM5 winds (m/s) 01 UTC 7 July UTC 7 July 22 UTC 5 July UTC 7 July GOAL 2: Lifecycle measurements for model initialization and evaluation

8 GOAL 3: Intensity and structure change research Research topics 1.Environmental influences on structure and intensity changes in Hurricane Rita 2.Along-band variations in microphysical statistics (e.g., transition of vertical motion and reflectivity statistics from convective to stratiform) as sampled by ELDORA and NOAA P-3 tail radars 3.OSEs and OSSEs using ELDORA and NOAA P-3 tail radar data to design optimal flight tracks for assimilation of Doppler radar data

9 Structural changes in Hurricane Rita CIMSS shear 06 UTC 21 Sept SSM/I 85 GHz 0154 UTC 21 Sept P-3 LF image and flight tracks 19 UTC 21 Sept GOAL 3: Intensity and structure change research Environmental impacts on structure and intensity changes in Hurricane Rita

10 CIMSS shear 03 UTC 22 Sept TRMM 85 GHz 1442 UTC 22 Sept P-3 LF image and flight tracks 20 UTC 22 Sept Environmental impacts on structure and intensity changes in Hurricane Rita GOAL 3: Intensity and structure change research

11 CIMSS shear 06 UTC 23 Sept Aqua 89 GHz 0808 UTC 23 Sept P-3 LF image and flight tracks 2145 UTC 23 Sept Environmental impacts on structure and intensity changes in Hurricane Rita GOAL 3: Intensity and structure change research

12 21 Sep 22 Sep Wind speed (m/s) at 5 km Wind speed (m/s) at 1 km Ratio of 5-km to 1-km winds Structural changes in Hurricane Rita GOAL 3: Intensity and structure change research

13 HRD data sets

14 HRD data sets