Disruptive Demographics: Implications for Workforce Planning and Development September 2012 James H. Johnson, Jr. Frank Hawkins Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise Kenan-Flagler Business School University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

OVERVIEW Demographic Trends Challenges & Opportunities Discussion

what September 2012 CENSUS 2010 will REVEAL

6 DISRUPTIVE TRENDS The South Rises – Again The Browning of America Marrying Out is “In” The Silver Tsunami is About to Hit The End of Men? Cooling Water from Grandma’s Well… and Grandpa’s Too!

The South Continues To Rise The South Continues To Rise...Again!

SOUTH’S SHARE OF U.S. NET POPULATION GROWTH, SELECTED YEARS, Years U.S. Absolute Population Change South’s Absolute Population Change South’s Share of Change ,974,129 8,468,30327% ,123,138 9,339,45533% ,886,12815,598,27930% ,497,94722,650,56350% ,035,66529,104,81449%

U.S. POPULATION CHANGE BY REGION, Region 2010 Population Absolute Population Change, Percent Population Change, U.S.309,050,81626,884,9729.5% Northeast55,417,3111,753,9783.3% Midwest66,972,8872,480,9983.0% South114,404,43513,845, % West72,256,1838,774, % North Carolina9,458,8881,378, %

SHARES OF NET POPULATION GROWTH BY REGION, Region Absolute Population ChangePercent of Total UNITED STATES26,884, NORTHEAST1,753, MIDWEST2,480, SOUTH13,845, WEST8,774,

NET MIGRATION TRENDS, NortheastMidwestSouthWest Total-1,032-2,008+2, Black Hispanic Elderly Foreign born = Net Import= Net Export

GROSS AND NET MIGRATION FOR THE SOUTH, The Region DomesticForeign YearsInOutNetInOutNet ,125,0963,470,431654,665268,619132,382136, ,874,4143,477,899396,525232,501132,201100,300 Florida DomesticForeign YearsInOutNetInOutNet ,053630,051182,00241,74524,10817, ,931668,087-13,15633,09532,0941,001

STATE SHARE OF SOUTH’S NET GROWTH, Region/StateAbsolute ChangeState’s Share The South14,318, % Texas 4,293, % Florida 2,818, % Georgia 1,501, % North Carolina 1,486, % Other Southern States 4,218, %

NC COUNTIES WITH THE LARGEST ABSOLUTE POPULATION GAINS,

NC COUNTIES EXPERIENCING POPULATION DECLINE,

THE “BROWNING” OF AMERICA

THE NUMBERS Legal Immigrants: : 206,000 annually : 561,000 annually : 800,654 annually : 879,400 annually : 1,137,000 annually Refugees, Parolees, Asylees : 2.1 million (65,000 annually) : 428,361 (85,672 annually) : 487,386 (81,231 annually) : 203,642 (75,661 annually) Illegal Immigrants: 300,000 to 400,000 annually over the past two decades Three million granted amnesty in million illegal immigrants remained in U.S. after 1986 reforms October 1996: INS estimated that there were 5 million illegal immigrants in the U.S. August 2005: Illegal population range from 7 to 15 million.

NON-IMMIGRANTS ADMITTED TO UNITED STATES, SELECTED YEARS, YearAll ClassesExchange Visitors Academic & Vocational Students ,756,903108,023 (1%)271,861 (2%) 19859,539,880141,213 (1%)285,496 (3%) ,574,055214,644 (1%)355,207 (2%) ,640,540241,364 (1%)395,480 (2%) ,690,082351,743 (1%)699,953 (2%) ,824,088389,435 (1%)741,921 (2%) ,907,139370,176 (1%)687,506 (2%) ,781,330360,777(1%)656,373(2%) ,381,928506,138 (1%)917,373(2%)

IMMIGRATION POPULATION, Source: Center for Immigration Studies; U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey

U.S. POPULATION CHANGE BY RACE & ETHNICITY, Race2009 Population Absolute Change 2000 – 2009 Percentage Change Total307,806,55024,834, Non-Hispanic258,587,22612,057, White199,851,2404,088, Black37,681,5443,276, AI/AN2,360,807256, Asian Asian13,686,0833,233, NH/PI NH/PI448,51079, or More Races 2 or More Races4,559,0421,123, Hispanic48,419,32412,776,

SHARES OF NET POPULATION GROWTH, Race Absolute Change Percent of Total Total24,834, Non-Hispanic12,057, White4,088, Black3,276, American Indian256, Asian Asian3,233, Native Hawaiian Native Hawaiian79, Two or More Races Two or More Races1,123, Hispanic12,776,

MEDIAN AGE OF U.S. POPULATION BY RACE, HISPANIC ORIGIN & GENDER, 2009 RaceTotalMaleFemale United States White Alone White, Non-Hispanic Black Alone AIAN Alone Asian Alone NHPI Alone Two or More Races Hispanic

TOTAL FERTILITY RATES OF U.S. WOMEN BY RACE/ETHNICITY, 2007 Race/EthnicityTotal Fertility Rate Hispanic2.99 Non-Hispanic White1.87 Blacks2.13 Asian2.04 Native American1.86 Source: Johnson and Lichter (2010)

RELATIVE DISTRIBUTION OF U.S. BIRTHS BY RACE / ETHNICITY Race/Ethnicity White66%50%49.6% Blacks17%16%15.0% Hispanics15%26%26.0% Other2%8%9.4% Source: Johnson and Lichter (2010); Tavernise (2011).

RELATIVE DISTRIBUTION OF U.S. POPULATION BY RACE / ETHNICITY Race/Ethnicity White67%47% Blacks12.8%13% Hispanics14%29% Asian5%9% Source: Pew Research Center, 2008 *projected.

NORTH CAROLINA POPULATION GROWTH BY NATIVITY, RACE, AND ETHNICITY,

CONTRIBUTIONS OF NON-WHITES & HISPANICS TO NC POPULATION CHANGE, Area Absolute Population Change Percent Non- White* Percent Hispanic All Counties1,486, Tier 1 Counties69, Tier 2 Counties327, Tier 3 Counties1,088, Source: Census 2000 and Census *Non-whites include Blacks, Hispanics, American Indians and Alaskan Natives, Asians, Native Hawaiians & Pacific Islanders, and people of two or more races.

MEDIAN AGE & FERTILITY RATES FOR FEMALES IN NC, Demographic GroupMedian Age Fertility/1000 women* All Females White, Not Hispanic Black American Indian & Alaskan Native Asian Native Hawaiian & Pacific Islander Some other race Two or more races Hispanic Native Born Foreign Born Source: American Community Survey *Women 15 to 50 with births in past 12 months

CHANGE IN THE RACE/ETHNIC COMPOSITION OF NC PUBLIC SCHOOLS, Group 2009 Enrollment 2000 Enrollment Absolute Change Percent Change Share of Net Change Total1,427,9601,268,422159, % AI/AN 20,378 18,651 1, % Black 444, ,712 51, % Asian 35,140 23,576 11, % Hispanic 152,605 56,232 96, % White 774, ,251- 1, Source: DPI, The Statistical Profile Online

Conceptual Framework for Assessing the Economic Impact of Hispanics in North Carolina

SUMMARY OF HISPANIC ECONOMIC IMPACT, NC, 2006 TotalPer-Capita Consumer Expenditures and Tax Contributors $9.2b$15,130 Cost of Essential Services$817m$1,360 Net Benefit$8.3b$13,770 Benefit-Cost Ratio$ $1.00--

is “In” Marrying Out

INTERMARRIAGE TREND, % Married Someone of a Different Race/Ethnicity

EDUCATION & INTERMARRIAGE % of Newlyweds Who Married Someone of a Different Race/Ethnicity, 2008

INTERMARRIAGE TYPES Newly Married Couples in 2008

INTERMARRIAGE RATES BY RACE & ETHNICITY % of Newlyweds Who Married Someone of a Different Race/Ethnicity, 2008

THE SILVER TSUNAMI

U.S. POPULATION CHANGE BY AGE, Age2009 Absolute Change Percentage Change <25104,960,2505,258, ,096,278-1,898, ,379,43916,977, ,570,5904,496, TOTAL307,006,55024,834,5938.8

U.S. POPULATION TURNING 50, 55, 62, AND 65 YEARS OF AGE, ( ) Age 50 Age 55 Age 62 Age 65 Average Number/Day12,34411,5419,2218,032 Average Number/Minute

THE GREYING OF AMERICA U.S. Census Projections

ABSOLUTE AND PERCENT CHANGE IN U.S. POPULATION BY AGE Age % Change Total

OLDER WORKERS IN U.S. WORKFORCE YEAR Age 65 or Older Age 75 or Older %4.7% %7.3%

NC ABSOLUTE POPULATION CHANGE BY AGE, AgeAll Counties Tier 3 Counties Tier 2 Counties Tier 1 Counties All Ages1,486,1701,088,946327,859 69,365 <25 449, ,818 85,481- 5, , , ,139-49, , ,705199,101 88, , ,175 79,416 36,440

GROWING DEPENDENCY A Train Wreck in the Making

ABSOLUTE & PERCENT CHANGE IN DEPENDENCY RATIOS, Area Percent Change All Counties Tier 1 Counties Tier 2 Counties Tier 3 Counties Source: compiled by authors from Census 2000 and Census 2010

The End of Men?

FEMALE WORKFORCE REPRESENTATION

The Plight of Men Today, three times as many men of working age do not work at all compared to Selective male withdrawal from labor market—rising non- employment due largely to skills mismatches, disabilities & incarceration. The percentage of prime-aged men receiving disability insurance doubled between 1970 (2.4%) and 2009 (4.8%). Since 1969 median wage of the American male has declined by almost $13,000 after accounting for inflation. After peaking in 1977, male college completion rates have barely changed over the past 35 years.

COLLEGE CLASS OF 2010 DEGREEMALEFEMALEDIFFERENCE Associate’s293,000486,000193,000 Bachelor’s702,000946,000244,000 Master’s257,000391,000134,000 Professional46,80046, Doctor’s31,50032,9001,400 TOTAL1,330,3001,902,300572,000

ENROLLMENT IN 2 YEAR COLLEGES, 2009 Area Total Enrollment Full Time Enrollment (%) Male Enrollment (%) Black Enrollment (%) U.S.20,966, Southeast Region 4,731, North Carolina 574, NC- 2 Yr Colleges 253,

UNC SYSTEM STUDENT ENROLLMENT BY GENDER AND TYPE OF INSTITUTION, 2010 Type of Institution Total Enrollment Male Enrollment Percent Male UNC System 175,28176,95344 Majority Serving 139,25063,40346 Minority Serving 36,03113,55038 HBUs 29,86511,19137

JOBS LOST/GAINED BY GENDER DURING 2007 (Q4) – 2009 (Q3) RECESSION Industry WomenMen Construction -106,000-1,300,000 Manufacturing -106,000-1,900,000 Healthcare +451, ,100 Government +176, ,000 Total -1,700,000-4,700,000

COOLING WATERS FROM GRANDMA’S WELL And Grandpa’s Too!

CHILDREN LIVING IN NON- GRANDPARENT AND GRANDPARENT HOUSEHOLDS, Household Type Absolute Number 2010 Absolute Change Percent Change All 74,7182, No Grandparents 67, Both Grandparents 2, Grandmother Only 1, Grandfather Only

CHILDREN LIVING IN NON- GRANDPARENT AND GRANDPARENT- HEADED HOUSEHOLDS BY PRESENCE OF PARENTS, 2010 Household Type All Children (in thousands) Living with Both Parents Living with Mother Only Living with Father Only Living with Neither parent All 74, %23.1%3.4%4.0% No Grandparents 67, %21.2%3.3%2.1% Both Grandparents 2, %40.6%5.2%36.1% Grandmother Only 1, %48.4%4.5%33.2% Grandfather Only %45.9%4.4%23.6%

...but Challenges Abound DIVERSITY RULES

RACIAL TYPOLOGY OF NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES, 2010

...but insufficient...but insufficient Education is Necessary

AVERAGE SHARE OF LONG-TERM UNEMPLOYMENT BY EDUCATION Education % Change Less Than High School24.7%23.7% High School Graduate40.6%34.3%-6.3 Some College20.7%24.4%3.7 Bachelor’s Degree or More 14.0%17.6%3.6

AVERAGE SHARE OF LONG-TERM UNEMPLOYMENT BY OCCUPATION Occupation % Change Blue Collar40.5%31.6%-8.9 Service Occupation14.3%16.7%2.4 White Collar38.5%44.4%5.9

THE LONG-TERM UNEMPLOYED, 2009 PROFESSION % OF ALL JOBLESS WORKERS Architecture & Engineering41.2 Management39.0 Community & Social Services Occupations36.1 Installation, Maintenance & Repair Work34.9 Production Occupations33.4

CHANGE IN INCIDENCE OF POVERTY BY EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT IN NC, , Educational Attainment Percent Change Less than High School 253,304276, % High School Graduate 216,667234, % Some College, Associate Degree 136,185186, % Bachelor’s degree or higher 49,082 57, % Source: American Community Survey

THE COMPETITIVE TOOL KIT Analytical Reasoning Entrepreneurial Acumen Contextual Intelligence Soft Skills/Cultural Elasticity Agility and Flexibility

THE END