Arctic clouds, circulation, and sea ice during 2007 and beyond Jennifer Kay 1,2, Andrew Gettelman 1, Kevin Reader 1, and Tristan L’Ecuyer 2 1 National.

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Presentation transcript:

Arctic clouds, circulation, and sea ice during 2007 and beyond Jennifer Kay 1,2, Andrew Gettelman 1, Kevin Reader 1, and Tristan L’Ecuyer 2 1 National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) 1 Colorado State University (CSU) MODIS Image from March 10, 2008 (sea ice maximum extent)

MODIS Image from March 26, Lessons and questions from Data assimilation project (CAM-DART) 3.Early observations for 2008

“A perfect storm” for ice loss in 2007

Cloud and radiative flux differences ( ) Radiative fluxes from 2B-FLXHR produced by Tristan L’Ecuyer (CSU).

Were the 2007 clouds really anomalous?

In a warmer world with thinner ice, natural summertime circulation and cloud variability is an increasingly important control on sea ice extent. Kay, L’Ecuyer, Gettelman, Stephens, and O’Dell (Geophysical Research Letters, 2008)

For clouds, timing is key.

Atmospheric forcing on sea ice loss Barrow, Alaska (ARM)July avg 2007 September avg 2007 Total Cloud Cover Downwelling Surface LW (Wm -2 ) Downwelling Surface SW (Wm -2 )

Many remaining questions 1)thermodynamic vs. dynamic loss processes 2)cloud-ice-circulation feedbacks 3) year-to-year variability vs. long-term ice thinning 4) models: reliability?, what can they teach us? 5) tipping point? 2008?

MODIS Image from April 13, Lessons and questions from Data assimilation project (CAM-DART) 3.Early observations for 2008

Why DART? DART = Data Assimilation Research Testbed Fig. 1 from Rodwell and Palmer (2007) Science Questions - Do climate models capture observed changes in the atmospheric forcing on sea ice loss? - How does the Arctic ocean surface affect the Arctic atmosphere?

CAM-DART vs. NCEP

DART-CAM Assimilations NameSurface boundary condition July06obsobserved (Hurrell et al., 2008) July07obsobserved (Hurrell et al., 2008) July07climclimatological SST and sea ice Science Questions For Today - How well do CAM/DART reanalyses capture observed changes? (July06 vs. July07) - Does the surface affect the best guess of the atmospheric state? (July07sst vs. July07clim)

CAM-DART July06 vs. July07

July07 CAM-DART obs vs. climo

July07 vs. Sept07 sea ice extent Source: NSIDC

MODIS Image from May 19, Lessons and questions from Data assimilation project (CAM-DART) 3.Early observations for 2008

NCEP During 08 Ice Melt

Clouds During 08 Ice Melt

Summary - In a warmer world with thinner ice, the minimum sea ice extent is increasingly sensitive to year-to-year variability in weather and cloud patterns. - The timing of ice loss matters. - CAM-DART can qualitatively reproduce observed changes in the atmospheric forcing on sea ice atmospheric circulation and cloud anomalies are small. But… If the current anti-cyclonic pattern persists/strengthens, there will be significant sea ice loss in 2008.

EXTRA SLIDES

NCEP During 08 Ice Growth

Clouds During 08 Ice Growth

Early Fall Cloud Increases (‘07-’06) Near The Dateline

2007 Arctic sea ice extent The sea ice extent at the 2007 minimum was 4.13 million km 2 down 43% from 1979 and down 26% from the last record minimum in Credit: NSIDC

Sea Ice Extent: July vs. Sept, 06 vs. 07

DART-CAM noise slide PSL map fc_time=0,3,6 hours

Fall/Winter Clouds/LW Rad at ARM Barrow

Western Pacific Arctic Variable July CERES FlashFlux, Barrow JJA CloudSat/CALIOP, Barrow Total Cloud Covern/a, , TOA Albedo- 0.07, n/an/a, n/a FSDS (Wm -2 )+ 26, , + 25 FSNS (Wm -2 )+ 19, n/an/a, n/a FLDS (Wm -2 )+ 8, + 2-4, -1

Western Pacific Arctic Data CERES FlashFlux Barrow, AK JulySeptJulySept Total Cloud Cover TOA Albedo TOA Albedo (clear) FSDS (Wm -2 ) FSNS (Wm -2 ) FLDS (Wm -2 ) ?+ 2- 5? Variable JJA in WPA CloudSat/CALIOP, ARM Barrow Total Cloud Cover-0.16, FSDS (Wm -2 )+ 32, +25 FLDS (Wm -2 )-4, -1

2007 Western Arctic cloud reductions CloudSat/CALIOP data revealed reduced cloudiness and enhanced downwelling shortwave radiation (+32 Wm -2 ).