Welcome and Overview CARBOOCEAN (30 minutes) EU FP6 Integrated Project CARBOOCEAN ”Marine carbon sources and sinks assessment” 5 th Annual & Final Meeting – Solstrand Hotel Norway 5-9 October 2009

EU Integrated Project CARBOOCEAN – Marine carbon sources and sinks assessment, 35 partners, 50 groups, Europe, Morocco, USA, Canada, IOC/IOCCP,

Overall goal and mission CARBOOCEAN IP (= CarboOcean Integrated Project) aims at an accurate scientific as-sessment of the marine carbon sources and sinks within space and time. It focuses on the Atlantic and Southern Oceans and a time interval of -200 to +200 years from now. CARBOOCEAN determines the ocean’s quantitative role for uptake of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), the most important manageable driving agent for climate change. CARBOOCEAN creates scientific knowledge, which is essential to a quantitative risk/uncertainty judgement on the expected consequences of rising atmospheric CO 2 concentrations. Based on this judgement, it will be possible to guide the development of appropriate mitigation actions, such as management of CO 2 emission reductions within a global context (e.g., Kyoto Protocol, United Nations, 1997; post-Kyoto negotiations). CARBOOCEAN combines the key European experts and scientific resources in the field through an integrated research effort.

Objectives of CARBOOCEAN IP Guiding sustainable development management CO 2 emissions Objective 5: Prediction, future assessment Initial conditions Objective 1: Short-term assessment System dynamicsBoundary conditions Objective 3: Assessment of Regional European Contribution Objective 2: Long term assessment Objective 4: Assessment of feedbacks

Core Theme 1: North Atlantic and Southern Ocean CO 2 air-sea exchange Core Theme 2: Detection of decadal-centennial Atlantic and Southern Ocean carbon inventory changes Core Theme 3:Carbon uptake and release at European regional scales Core Theme 4: Biogeochemical feedback on the oceanic carbon sinks Core Theme 5: Future scenarios for marine carbon sources and sinks Over-arching activity: Prediction Over-arching activity: Long-term assessment Over-arching activity: Short-term assessment Final Workshop Kick-Off Meeting Month Phase: Understanding Nowcast and Prediction Synopsis and Sustainment Description

Expression of Interest: PI meeting (ca. 20 persons) in Amsterdam April 2002 EoI ”MARCASSA” June 2002 Marine carbon sources and sinks assessment

this is a „marcassin“ (French)

Bergen October 2003 submission of stage 1 proposal among 30 out of 300 proposals Paris January 2004 writing meeting with core theme leaders Bergen February 2004 submission of stage 2 proposal no. 4 out of 30/300 July 2004 – start of negotiations January 1, 2005 – start of CARBOOCEAN

Travel effort for proposal preparation: Ca. 130 x 1000 EUR = 130,000 EUR expenses + equiv. 1 person year 90,000 EUR Person effort for proposal preparation: min. 1.5 person year for 130,000 EUR Meeting costs, advisor costs: 50,000 EUR 400,000 EUR costs invested only for the writing and negotiation of the proposal.

Results beyond the state of the art – a selection: Air-sea carbon fluxes are regionally considerably more variable as previously thought. A North Atlantic carbon observing system has been built up which delivers high accuracy basin-wide air-sea CO 2 flux measurements In considerable areas of the Atlantic and the Southern Ocean the surface CO 2 partial pressure has increased faster than that in the atmosphere – this potential decrease in CO 2 sink must be observed further The pH value of seawater is sinking (time series measurements, surface and deep). Model results show consequences of ocean acidification at the ocean floor. Mesocosm experiments show the reaction of ecosystems for sinking pH. Cutting edge global surface ocean CO 2 (most comprehensive in the world!) and Atlantic 3-D carbon data syntheses have been carried out with international colleagues. Future scenarios on show that the carbon cycle re-enforces climate change (positive feedback). Emission targets need to be adjusted accordingly.

SOCAT – Surface Ocean CO 2 Atlas Data worth > 20 million Euros can be used to it’s full potential SOCAT will allow a more accurate estimation of the ocean CO 2 sink and it’s variability International effort coordinated by UNESCO/IOCCP International effort coordinated by UNESCO/IOCCP All data is available in the same format for the first time which is essential for science related to climate research! Quality controlled by regional experts using state-of-the-art technology World largest CO 2 database: covers 2150 cruises over 40 years > 7,5 million CO 2, > 10 million temperature, > 9 million salinity measurements World largest CO 2 database: covers 2150 cruises over 40 years > 7,5 million CO 2, > 10 million temperature, > 9 million salinity measurements Core theme 1 - North Atlantic and Southern Ocean CO2 air-sea exchange on a seasonal-to-interannual scale

CARINA - Carbon dioxide in the Atlantic Ocean Will allow for improved estimates of ocean carbon inventory and transport Data rescue project for deep sea carbon dioxide and nutrients data Collaborative effort between US and EUROPE Largest high quality dataset of the entire Atlantic Ocean (188 cruises with approx stations) Data with an estimated value of > 50 million Euros was rescued Core theme 2 - Detection of decadal-to-centennial ocean carbon inventory changes

Core theme 3 - Carbon uptake and release at European regional scale Huertas et al. (2009)

Core theme 4 - Biogeochemical feedbacks on the oceanic carbon sink Heinze, pers. Communication (talked to myself…)

Core theme 5 - Future scenarios for marine carbon sources and sinks Tjiputra, Assmann, Bentsen et al.

CarboOcean‘s and CarboEurope‘s outreach project „CarboSchools“  Experimentation projects  Processing scientific data  Field trips and expeditions  Observation and measurements Publications 1. Educ. booklet: What we have learned, What we still don’t know and what we must do to combat climate change 2. Educ. booklet: What we have learned, what we still don’t know and what we must do to combat climate change 3. Educ. booklet: in prep. CarboSchools regional operators’ handbook Teacher/scientist partnership guide Online resources CarboSchools website: - materials - publications - SchoolCO2web Regional websites (native languages) 60 European schools, 65 projects, 1450 pupils, x teachers, x scientists… Volbers et al.

EU publication Joint effort of marine and terrestrial carbon research community

CarboOcean Info-film Univisjon and many helping hands

So – what is the importance of all this?

Preindustrial niveau 278 ppm

15 μm 4.3 μm 7.2 μm (Barrett, 2005)

atmospheric CO 2 ocean land fossil fuel emissions deforestation CO 2 flux (Pg C y -1 ) Sink Source Time (y) Perturbation of Global Carbon Budget ( ) Le Quéré, unpublished; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS Anthropogenic forcing

atmospheric CO 2 ocean land fossil fuel emissions deforestation CO 2 flux (Pg C y -1 ) Sink Source Time (y) Perturbation of Global Carbon Budget ( ) Le Quéré, unpublished; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS Anthropogenic forcing Variability ranges??

Anthropogenic forcing Raupach et al., 2007, PNAS, additions by P.Canadell

CO 2 is most important and managable agent of human induced climate change: ”How much CO 2 is leaving the atmosphere where and when?” ”What is going to happen – what forcing?” ”Not leaving the world view to others!” Water column inventory of man made CO 2 for year 1994 mole m -2 Sabine et al., Science, 2004

Integrated CO 2 uptake: , ca. 50% of human-produced emissions Annual CO 2 uptake at present: 25% of human-produced emissions ONLY! Water column inventory of man made CO 2 for year 1994 mole m -2 Sabine et al., Science, 2004

Watson, Schuster et al., UEA The ocean carbon sink is regionally more variable than previously thought! Schuster et al. (2009) DSR II

Air-sea CO 2 flux changes also in Southern Ocean! obs. atm. CO 2 + ocean impulse response uptake constant 1967 forcing daily NCEP forcing From: LeQuéré et al., 2007, Science, Saturation of the Southern Ocean CO2 sink due to recent climate change Sink decrease inferred from observations and modelling !

TCO 2 from a model (HAMOOC4) Pre-industrial Atlantic Ocean

The actual TCO 2 and the anthropogenic TCO 2 have completely different patterns. Only the ”actual” can readily be observed. Oceanic antropogenic CO 2 is tiny on huge background.

IPCC AR4, ch. 7, modified from Sarmiento and Gruber, 2006, with changes in pool sizes from Sabine et al., 2004a Challenge: the net fluxes are also tiny on background of huge gross fluxes

WHAT TO DO NEXT? Key processes – identification & quantification Sustained observations – follow the non-steady state Calibrated models – train models with memory of the past and present Tell policy makers the most feasible pathway for mitigation

Apollo 17, NASA Odum‘s analogue: space ship Earth