1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP June 14, 2010.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 9 May 2008 For.

Advertisements

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP May 18, 2015.

The North American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 15 June 2015.

Climate Prediction Center / NCEP

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 11 August 2008.

The North American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 05 August 2013.

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP May 9, 2011.

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP April 01, 2013.

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP November 22,

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP May 31, 2011.

Madden/Julian Oscillation: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Forecasts Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP March 26, 2007.

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 20 April 2009 For more information, visit:

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP August 9, 2010.

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 31 August 2009.

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP August 27, 2013.

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP October 11,

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 07 July 2008 For more information, visit:

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP May 27, 2014.

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP September 14,

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP June 22, 2015.

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP October 31,

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 13 April 2009 For more information, visit:

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP November 21,

Climate Prediction Center / NCEP

Madden/Julian Oscillation: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Forecasts Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP March 12, 2007.

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 6 July 2010 For more information, visit:

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP November 28,

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP December 12,

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP April 11, 2011.

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP May 16, 2011.

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 08 December 2008 For more information, visit:

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP January 12,

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP October 11,

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP February 27,

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 14 July 2008.

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP March 12, 2012.

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP August 16, 2010.

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Include Week-1 and Week-2 Outlooks Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 31 May 2011.

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP June 03, 2013.

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP June 09, 2014.

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP May 06, 2013.

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 2 November 2009.

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP November 12,

The North American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 20 July 2015.

The North American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 08 June 2015.

The African Monsoon Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 4 October 2010 For more information, visit:

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP September 26,

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP September 30,

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 7 November 2011 For more information,

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP November 12,

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP July 12, 2010.

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 18 November 2012 For more information,

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP September 13,

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 27 July 2009.

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP December 19,

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP December 27,

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP January 02,

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 4 June 2012 For more information,

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP September 16,

Madden/Julian Oscillation: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Forecasts Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP July 31, 2006.

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 20 July 2009.

Madden/Julian Oscillation: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Forecasts Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP September 19, 2005.

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 6 October 2008.

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP June 27, 2011.

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP January 11,

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP November 7,

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 12 October 2009.

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP October 7, 2013.

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP January 31,

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP March 25, 2013.

Presentation transcript:

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP June 14, 2010 For more information, visit:

2 Outline Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Monsoon Prediction Summary Climatology

3 Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days During the past 90 days, rainfall is above normal over much of the latitude band 10S-10N extending all the way from the Indian Ocean to the western Pacific, over and near Bangladesh, maritime Indonesia, eastern China, and the western North Pacific storm track region. Outside of these regions, 90 day precipitation accumulations are below normal over India, southern Indian Ocean and much of Australian continent.

4 Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days During the past 30 days, the precipitation anomalies pattern is much similar to the 90 days accumulated precipitation anomalies pattern, except that the anomalies are stronger in amplitude. Even after the declared onset of the southwest monsoon over India by the India Met. Dept, the precipitation deficiencies over much of India, Burma, Thailand and Indochina, and Philippines continue to persist. However, excessive positive precipitation anomalies are noted over northeast India, Bay of Bengal, southeastern Indian ocean and maritime Indonesia.

5 Precip Patterns: Last 5 Days Below-average precipitation is prevalent over much of Indian peninsula, the tropical southwestern Indian Ocean, Indo-China Peninsula, northern South China Sea, Philippines, and subtropical-extratropical northwestern Pacific. Precipitation is also deficient over southern India, clearly reflecting the weakened state of the summer monsoon. Above normal precipitation is noted over central Bay of Bengal and the Indian Ocean to the south.

6 Rainfall Time Series over 5x5 lat-lon boxes *This unified land-only daily precipitation dataset is different from the CMAP dataset used in the previous three spatial maps. Upper panel: The rainfall over southeastern China and much of East Asia has been mostly above average in the past 90 days. Middle panel: In the past 90 days, rainfall has been mostly below average over much of the Indo-China Peninsula. Lower panel: Except in small and narrow regions of southeastern south India, north east India, and along the India-Pakistan border, monsoon related precipitation over much of India is well below normal (see right).

7 Atmospheric Circulation The northern limit of the moisture laden southwesterly flow striking the west coast of India is further south than normal, and consequently anomalous low level easterlies prevail over central India associated with a cyclonic circulation in the central Bay of Bengal and above normal precipitation in that oceanic region, but deficient rainfall over much of India.

8 NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Weak 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2

9 Prediction of Large-Scale Monsoon Circulation Right panel: Webster-Yang monsoon index (Webster and Yang 1992) defined as U850 (0- 20ºN, ºE) – U200 (0-20ºN, ºE). Positive (negative) values indicate strong (weak) than normal monsoon. Left panel: Correlation between rainfall and Webster-Yang monsoon index (Webster and Yang 1992; shading) and regression of 850-mb winds on the monsoon index (vectors) for June. Green (brown) shading indicates increase (decrease) in rainfall associated with strong monsoon. The NCEP Global Forecast System predicts that the large-scale monsoon circulation over tropical Asia will be about just normal in the following two weeks.

10 Prediction of South Asian Monsoon Circulation Right panel: South Asian monsoon index (Goswami et al. 1999) defined as v850 (10-30ºN, ºE) – v200 (10-30ºN, ºE). Positive (negative) values indicate strong (weak) than normal monsoon. Left panel: Correlation between rainfall and South Asian monsoon index (Goswami et al. 1999; shading) and regression of 850-mb winds on the monsoon index (vectors) for June. Green (brown) shading indicates increase (decrease) in rainfall associated with strong monsoon. The NCEP Global Forecast System predicts that the monsoon circulation over South Asia will be near normal or slightly above normal in the next two weeks.

11 Prediction of East Asia – NW Pacific Monsoon Right panel: East Asia – Western North Pacific (EAWNP) monsoon index (Wang et al. 2008) defined as U850 (5-15ºN, 40-80ºE) – U850 (20-30ºN, 70-90ºE). Positive (negative) values indicate strong (weak) than normal monsoon. Left panel: Correlation between rainfall and East Asia – Western North Pacific monsoon index (Wang et al. 2008; shading) and regression of 850-mb winds on the monsoon index (vectors) for June. Green (brown) shading indicates increase (decrease) in rainfall associated with strong monsoon. The NCEP Global Forecast System predicts that, in the next two weeks, the monsoon circulation over Southeast Asia and northwestern Pacific will be weaker than normal.

12 Prediction of East Asian Monsoon Right panel: East Asian monsoon index (Li and Zeng 2002; GRL). Positive (negative) values indicate strong (weak) than normal monsoon. Left panel: Correlation between rainfall and East Asian monsoon index (Li and Zeng 2002; shading) and regression of 850-mb winds on the monsoon index (vectors) for June. Green (brown) shading indicates increase (decrease) in rainfall associated with strong monsoon. The NCEP Global Forecast System predicts that, in the next two weeks, the East Asian monsoon circulation will be below normal.

13 Summary During the past 90 days, rainfall is above normal over much of the latitude band 10S-10N extending all the way from the Indian Ocean to the western Pacific, over and near Bangladesh, eastern China, and the western North Pacific storm track region. Outside of these regions, 90 day precipitation accumulations are below normal over India, southern Indian Ocean and much of Australian continent. The past 30 days anomalies pattern is very similar to the 90 days pattern, except that the amplitude is stronger. In spite of the declared onset of the southwest monsoon over India, deficiencies in the accumulated precipitation over 5-day, 30-day, and 90-day periods continue to exist over much of India except over northeast part. The northern edge of the advancement of monsoon seems to be behind by about 5-7 days. Serious shortfalls in the monsoon related precipitation totals exist over Burma, Thailand, Indochina and New Zealand as well. NCEP’s GFS forecast do not indicate any major improvement in the next week.

14 Onset of the Asian Monsoon

15 Climatology