State of the Art & Near Term Future of Smart Driving Cars by Alain L. Kornhauser, Ph.D. Professor, Operations Research & Financial Engineering Director, Program in Transportation Faculty Chair, PAVE (Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering) Princeton University Presented at ITS-NY 2013 Annual Meeting Saratoga Springs, NY June 14, 2013

Where Have We Been?

The Automobile’s 1 st 125 Years ( ) Benz patent st Automobile Benz patent st Automobile Benz Circa 2011 Deliverd: Enormous Personal Freedom & Mobility But…Safe Operation Requires Continuous Vigilance

We Love the Freedom & Mobility But…Continuous Vigilance is an unrealistic requirement for drivers

Txtng while driving is out of control…

TravelTainment Industry Wants Everyone’sAttention

In In 717 out of 723 accidents ((99%) “In 717 out of 723 crashes (99%), a driver behavioral error caused or contributed to the crash”

Early Estimate of Motor Vehicle Traffic Fatalities in 2012

Response is Laudable Kirkland, WA But Not Likely to be Effective

What About Automation?

Preliminary Statement of Policy Concerning Automated Vehicles Extending its vehicle safety standards from Crash Mitigation to Crash Avoidance with Aim at Full Self-Driving Automation Level 0 – No-Automation. The driver is in complete and sole control of the primary vehicle controls (brake, steering, throttle, and motive power) at all times, and is solely responsible for monitoring the roadway and for safe operation of all vehicle controls. Vehicles that have certain driver support/convenience systems but do not have control authority over steering, braking, or throttle would still be considered “level 0” vehicles. Examples include systems that provide only warnings Level 1 – Function-specific Automation: Automation at this level involves one or more specific control functions; if multiple functions are automated, they operate independently from each other. The driver has overall control, and is solely responsible for safe operation, the driver. The vehicle’s automated system may assist or augment the driver in operating one of the primary controls – either steering or braking/throttle controls (but not both). Level 2 - Combined Function Automation: Automation of at least two primary control functions designed to work in unison to relieve the driver of control of those functions. Vehicles at this level of automation can utilize shared authority when the driver cedes active primary control in certain limited driving situations. The driver is still responsible for monitoring the roadway and safe operation and is expected to be available for control at all times and on short notice. Level 3 - Limited Self-Driving Automation: Vehicles at this level of automation enable the driver to cede full control of all safety-critical functions under certain traffic or environmental conditions. Level 4 - Full Self-Driving Automation: The vehicle is designed to perform all safety-critical driving functions and monitor roadway conditions for an entire trip.

Preliminary Statement of Policy Concerning Automated Vehicles The Aim to Full Self-Driving is Laudable; But, Ironically, it may be overly ambitious and potentially counter productive But, Ironically, it may be overly ambitious and potentially counter productive Eternal Vigilance should not be the price of Freedom derived from the Automobile We Like to Drive and Can Be Vigilant But Preferably only when we want to; Otherwise, Let us “TXT” By Focusing on Level 3 (Limited Self-Driving, aka SmartDrivingCar ) NHTSA Can Capture “All” Safety Benefits & Make the Car Even More Desirable By Focusing on Level 3 (Limited Self-Driving, aka SmartDrivingCar ) NHTSA Can Capture “All” Safety Benefits & Make the Car Even More Desirable The Jump to Level 4 (Full Self-Driving) Delivers Broad Societal Benefits Equal Mobility for All (young, old, handicapped, disadvantaged), Elimination of Congestion, Halving of Energy, Pollution These are NOT NHTSA’s Mission & Shouldn’t be Distracted by that Goal

Where Are We Now? R&D

Has drive ~ 500,000 miles with “Level 3: Limited Self-Driving Automation” But…Hardware too expensive and Reliance on 3D Google Maps is “non-elegant”

Where Are We Now? “Level 4 Full Self-Driving Automation ” Operational in Exclusive Environments

Now exist in essentially every Major AirportMajor Airport Now exist in essentially every Major AirportMajor Airport APM Automated People Movers APM Automated People Movers Milan Beijing Paris and a growing number of Driverless Metros

Morgantown 1975 Remains a critical mobility system & planning an expansion Today… > 25M Driverless VMT Zero serious accidents > 25M Driverless VMT Zero serious accidents

And Today… Masdar & Heathrow are operational Video > 1M Driverless VMT Zero accidents > 1M Driverless VMT Zero accidents

Initial Demonstration of Autonomous Transit Autonomous Buses at La Rochelle (CyberCars/Cybus/INRIA) Autonomous Buses at La RochelleCybus – Simple virtual non-exclusive roadway Virtual vehicle-based longitudinal (collision avoidance) and lateral (lane keeping) systems This is actually “Level 4 Full Self-Driving Automation” Very Slow Speed (~ 10 mph); “Limited Pedestrian Environment”

– Driverless Trucks in Australian & Chilean Mines

Where Are We Now? “Level 0+ Driver Support, but No Automation ” Operational Bus Transit

Bus 2.0: Initial Demonstration of Transit-based Driver Assistance (Level 0+, no control, only warning ) Fleet of 10 Gillig low floor buses Morning and evening express services 22 mile (one-way) travel distance Reliable travel times in all weather and traffic conditions Fleet of 10 Gillig low floor buses Morning and evening express services 22 mile (one-way) travel distance Reliable travel times in all weather and traffic conditions

Bus 2.0: Transit-based Driver Assistance How Do They Do It?

It Just Works!

Where Are We Now? “Level 2-, Combined Automation with constant vigilance ” Available in ShowRooms for Consumers

Intelligent Drive (active steering ) BAS-Plus Active Lane-Keeping Assist Active Lane-Keeping Assist (braking not steering  ) Volvo Truck Emergency braking

DOT HS Pre-Crash Scenario Typology for Crash Avoidance Research More on Google: Levandowski Presentation

With Mercedes the Market Leader in “Level 2-” and an incremental price tag that can be absorbed by a Price Leading Insurance Company, then other automakers will be enticed to follow which should lead to: Viral adoption by the car buying public “Moore’s Law type of price/performance improvement Market-driven Transition to “Level 2” and “Level 3” at same or even lower price structure Adoption and enhancement rates that are comparable to that enjoyed by airbags (With likely a comparable hick-up)

What’s Near-term for Transit? With Mercedes the Market Leader in “Level 2-” and an incremental price tag that can be absorbed by a Price Leading Insurance Company, then other automakers will be enticed to follow which should lead to:

Fact: For over 40 years New Jersey has had the World’s Best “Bus Rapid Transit” System! It Consists of: Efficient Port Authority Bus Terminal – 223 Departure Gates – Readily Accommodates 700 Buses/hr The World’s Best Bus Rapid Transit System

Fact: For over 40 years New Jersey has had the World’s Best “Bus Rapid Transit” System! It Consists of: Efficient PA Bus Terminal Direct Access/Egress to Exclusive Lanes in the Lincoln Tunnel 3+ HOV Lanes on the NJ Turnpike that are, by default, essentially bus-only Many Strategically Located Park&Ride Lots The World’s Best Bus Rapid Transit System

Pieces are Connected by: “495-viaduct” Counter-flow Exclusive Bus Lane (XBL) (XBL) – Lane Segregation is by Removable Plastic Peg – Yet exceedingly Safe » 3 (?) accidents in 41 years, no fatalities. The World’s Best Bus Rapid Transit System

A Perfect Storm Opportunity PABT in desperate need of “rehabilitation” XBL at capacity “Helix” due for “rehabilitation” Desperately need increased late afternoon in- bound capacity for busses New bus procurement cycle begins in 2 years Test facility Ft. Monmouth

add Intelligent Cruise Control with Lane Assist to the 3,000 buses… e.g. Daimler Benz Distronic Plus with Traffic Jam AssistDistronic PlusTraffic Jam Assist even at an incremental $75,000/bus this is just $200M Could achieve sustained 3.0 second headways – Increases practical throughput by 50% from 700 -> 1,000 buses/hr; 35,000 -> 50,000 pax/hr – Increased passenger capacity comparable to what would have been provided by $10B ARC rail tunnel Institutionally manageable: – All Express Buses are acquired according to NJT Specs. – Facilities (XBL, LT, PABT) are controlled by PANY&NJT Ideal test facility available: – Ft. Monmouth Improving The World’s Best Bus Rapid Transit System

Concept Not New: Concept Makes Even More Sense Now! Improving The World’s Best Bus Rapid Transit System

Near-term Opportunity for a Substantive Extension of Autonomous Transit Specific: General Mobility for Fort Monmouth Redevelopment – Currently: Decommissioned Ft. Monmouth is vacant. Ft. Monmouth Economic Revitalization Authority (FMERA) is redeveloping the 3 sq. mile “city”FMERAredeveloping Focus is on attracting high-tech industry The “Fort” needs a mobility system. FMEDA is receptive to incorporating an innovative mobility system Because it is being redeveloped as a “new town” it can accommodate itself to be an ideal site for testing more advanced driverless systems.

Where might We End Up?

Discussion!

Thank You

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