Jeffrey S. Passel, Ph.D. Immigration Studies Program The Urban Institute U.S. Latinos, 2000: Nativity & Citizenship Pew Hispanic Center Western Knight Center for Specialized Journalism Los Angeles -- February 7, 2002

THE URBAN INSTITUTE / Washington, D.C. Nativity & Citizenship Topics Immigration Demography -- Numbers for Stocks & Flows -- Legal Status & Origins Geographic Trends Immigration & Voting -- Factors Affecting Turnout Socioeconomic Integration -- Legal Status & Generations

THE URBAN INSTITUTE / Washington, D.C. U.S. Population (2000) Births (annual) Deaths Legal Immigration Undoc. Immigration Emigration Growth Rate (Very Rapid) 281 million 4 million million 800, , , , % U.S. Population -- Basics

THE URBAN INSTITUTE / Washington, D.C. Current In-Flows are Very High * Additional immigrants are mostly illegals and legalized aliens Europe/Canada (Legal) Additional* All Other (Legal)

THE URBAN INSTITUTE / Washington, D.C. Multiple Goals of Immigration Policy Economic -- Competitiveness, Jobs Social -- Family Unification Moral -- Human Rights Cultural -- Pluralism Legal -- Sovereignty, Security, Rule of Law

THE URBAN INSTITUTE / Washington, D.C. Selected Immigration Laws Exclusions Chinese Japanese Asians & “Illiterates” S. & E. Europe Quotas & Limits 1921, 1924, 1952 Repeal of Discriminatory Quotas Eastern Hemisphere Western Hemisphere

THE URBAN INSTITUTE / Washington, D.C. Revised Immigration Laws Refugee Act of 1980 International, ideological standards Outside preference system Immig. Reform & Control Act, 1986 Employer sanctions Legalization programs Immigration Act of % increase in immigration Employment categories tripled Diversity category created

THE URBAN INSTITUTE / Washington, D.C Immigration Laws Anti-Terrorism and Effective Death Penalty Act of Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act of Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996

THE URBAN INSTITUTE / Washington, D.C. The Policy Context Legal: ,000/year Humanitarian: ,000 Undoc.: ,000 or more (?)

THE URBAN INSTITUTE / Washington, D.C. Immigrant Numbers at Peak Percent 31.1 Million (Preliminary Census 2000) 4.7 Percent ~11 Percent (estimated) Percentage is Not

THE URBAN INSTITUTE / Washington, D.C. Most Legal Immigrants from Latin America & Asia Other Latin AmericaAsia MexicoEurope & Canada All Other 2.5 Million 3.3 Million 4.5 Million 7.7 Million 6.0 Million * Excludes IRCA legalizations Millions of Legal Immigrants

THE URBAN INSTITUTE / Washington, D.C. Immigrant-Dominated Populations Latinos & Asians * Not Hispanic Percent Foreign-Born from 2000 CPS-based estimates Total Population 11.1% Foreign-Born

THE URBAN INSTITUTE / Washington, D.C. Latin Americans & Asians Dominate Foreign-Born 30.5 Million Foreign-Born (Census 2000 Supplementary Survey)

THE URBAN INSTITUTE / Washington, D.C. Hispanics & Asians Dominate Foreign-Born 30.5 Million Foreign-Born (March 2000 CPS & Census 2000 Supplementary Survey)

THE URBAN INSTITUTE / Washington, D.C. Legal Status of Immigrants ~30.5 Million Foreign-Born (Based on March 2000 CPS, Census 2000, & Author’s Estimates) Legal Aliens (LPR) (9.3 million) 30% Legal Nonimmigrants (1.3 million) 4% Naturalized Citizens (9.4 million) 30% Refugee Arrivals* (2.3 million) 8% Undocumented Aliens (8.5 million) 28% (Preliminary) * Entered 1980 or later

THE URBAN INSTITUTE / Washington, D.C. Undocumented Clearly at New High -- Trend Uncertain Millions of Illegal Aliens Living in the U.S. Apr-80Jun-89Jan-82Jun-86Oct-96Oct-92Apr-2000 (Preliminary estimates by author)

THE URBAN INSTITUTE / Washington, D.C. Undocumented Are Largely Latin American ~8.5 Million in April 2000 (Estimated with Census 2000 Supplementary Survey)

THE URBAN INSTITUTE / Washington, D.C. Rapid Growth of Mexican Population Thousands of Migrants in U.S.Percent Mexican of Foreign-Born

THE URBAN INSTITUTE / Washington, D.C. New Flows from Mexico Dominated by Undocumented Mexican-Born Population in U.S.(in millions) Note: Labels show total population (in millions) and percent undocumented. About half of all Mexican immigrants in the U.S. are undocumented. (Preliminary estimates by author)

THE URBAN INSTITUTE / Washington, D.C. The New Immigration 4 Scale 4 Diversity 4 Pace Concentration

THE URBAN INSTITUTE / Washington, D.C. Immigrants Are Concentrated

THE URBAN INSTITUTE / Washington, D.C. Undocumented Concentrated (Preliminary)

THE URBAN INSTITUTE / Washington, D.C. Concentration is High, But New Centers Emerge in ‘90s Percent Growth in Foreign-Born Population

THE URBAN INSTITUTE / Washington, D.C. Immigration Categories Major Destinations (70% of Immigrants) (6) Traditional States (>250K in 1920) (8) New Growth States ( > 50%) (19) Other States (18) New Immigration Growth Centers

THE URBAN INSTITUTE / Washington, D.C. Mexicans Diversify, Too Percent of U.S. Mexicans

THE URBAN INSTITUTE / Washington, D.C. Immigrants Live in Cities and Suburbs Percent of Population, March 1999 CPS

THE URBAN INSTITUTE / Washington, D.C. Changed Voting Patterns Immigrant-Center Populations -- Latinos & Asians -- Rapid Growth -- Not Numerically Large Critical Factor? -- Evenly-Balanced Electorate -- Magnified Impact -- Locality-Specific

THE URBAN INSTITUTE / Washington, D.C. Rapid Growth in Latino & Asian Votes -- ‘96 to ‘00 Note: In millions. Percent Growth 1996 to 2000 CPS

THE URBAN INSTITUTE / Washington, D.C. Voting Power Factors Demographic Factors -- Eligibility / Citizenship -- Age Structure Political Factors -- Registration Completeness -- Turnout of Registered Voters -- Citizenship / Naturalization

THE URBAN INSTITUTE / Washington, D.C. Percent of Population, November 2000 Dilution of Latinos & Asians (Based on November 2000 CPS & estimates from March 2000 CPS)

THE URBAN INSTITUTE / Washington, D.C. Naturalization & Registration Will Boost Latino-Asian Vote * Not Hispanic. Based on November 2000 CPS.

THE URBAN INSTITUTE / Washington, D.C. Naturalizations Surge in Wake of IRCA Thousands of Immigrants, Naturalizations, or Petitions

THE URBAN INSTITUTE / Washington, D.C. Millions Not Naturalized Yet Note: In millions. Millions of persons aged 18 & older Percent naturalized November 2000 & March 2000 CPS 7.1 (38%) 5.1 (57%) 5.9 (59%) 1.2 (54%)

THE URBAN INSTITUTE / Washington, D.C. Percent Naturalized of Legal Immigrants November 2000 Naturalize Younger Aliens

THE URBAN INSTITUTE / Washington, D.C. Registered Voters as Percent of “Eligible” November 2000 CPS Register Young & Old

THE URBAN INSTITUTE / Washington, D.C. Turnout Differences Minor Voters as Percent of Registrations November 2000 CPS

THE URBAN INSTITUTE / Washington, D.C. Potential Impacts Continued Growth in Immigrant-Center Populations -- Latinos & Asians, Especially Limits to “Full Presence” -- High % of Children -- Undocumented & Other Aliens Continued Criticality? -- Evenly-Balanced Electorate

THE URBAN INSTITUTE / Washington, D.C. Action Items Naturalize (to Highest Group by Age) + 800,000 Latino votes Register Voters (to White level) + 900,000 Latino votes Turnout Voters (to White level) + 600,000 Latino votes Total Potential Impact million Latino votes (+40%) + 600,000 Asian votes

THE URBAN INSTITUTE / Washington, D.C. Education Tied to Status Less than High School Graduate Bachelor’s Degree or Beyond Natives Percent of Persons Aged Years, 1998

THE URBAN INSTITUTE / Washington, D.C. Generational Composition * Not Hispanic. Based on March 2000 CPS.

THE URBAN INSTITUTE / Washington, D.C. Age Structure of Generations Driven by Different Forces 1stGeneration:Age Structure of Immigration2ndGeneration:TrendsinImmigration3rd+Generation: Trends in Fertility & MortalityTotalPopulation:LargestGeneration(3rd+) Source: March 1999 CPS

THE URBAN INSTITUTE / Washington, D.C. Percent of Ages Who Completed High School or GED Strong Progress — H.S. Completion (Based on March CPS & 1980 Census)

THE URBAN INSTITUTE / Washington, D.C. Percent of Ages Who Completed Four Years of College Some Progress — College Degrees (Based on March CPS & 1980 Census)

THE URBAN INSTITUTE / Washington, D.C. Integration is Dynamic Undocumented Aliens Refugees (post-1980) LPR Aliens Natives $50,200 Entered after 1988Entered before 1988 Naturalized LPRs

THE URBAN INSTITUTE / Washington, D.C. Median in 1996 dollars for households headed by persons Median Household Income (Based on March CPS & 1980 Census)

THE URBAN INSTITUTE / Washington, D.C. Immigrant Households Larger Undocumented Aliens Refugees (post-1980) LPR Aliens Natives 2.51 Entered after 1988Entered before 1988 Naturalized LPRs

THE URBAN INSTITUTE / Washington, D.C. Income per Person Can Suffer Undocumented Aliens Refugees (post-1980) LPR Aliens Natives $20,000 Entered after 1988Entered before 1988 Naturalized LPRs

THE URBAN INSTITUTE / Washington, D.C. Percent of Females Aged in the Labor Force Female Labor Force Participation (Based on March CPS & 1980 Census)

THE URBAN INSTITUTE / Washington, D.C. Percent of Ages Who Are Currently Divorced of Separated Currently Divorced or Separated (Based on March CPS & 1980 Census)

THE URBAN INSTITUTE / Washington, D.C. Coming Policy Issues Nonimmigrant Tracking National ID Amnesty / Legalization Guest Workers High-Tech Agriculture Impact on Social Security High Immigration Low Fertility

THE URBAN INSTITUTE / Washington, D.C. Integration Reform -- A Modest Proposal Language Acquisition & Access Access to Legal Status Access to Social Safety Net School Reform & Immigrants Impact Aid & Offsets

For more information, contact: Jeffrey S. Passel, Ph.D. Immigration Studies Program Population Studies Center Urban Institute 2100 M St., N.W. Washington, D.C Jeffrey S. Passel, Ph.D. Immigration Studies Program Population Studies Center Urban Institute 2100 M St., N.W. Washington, D.C (202)