Historical context Environmental migration from past to present Environment & Migration

Migration triggered by environmental events

 Environment as a pull factor  When one looks at the population densities on a world- scale, it is clear that population distribution has been hugely influenced by environmental conditions  Anticipative migration  Ex.: The purchase of Kioa island by Vaitupu islanders, 1951.

An emerging concept  First mentioned in the 1970s  First UNEP report in 1985  Growing interest in the mid-2000s:  Realisation of the impacts of climate change  Major natural disasters  Tsunami 2004  Katrina 2005  Pakistan earthquake 2005 > Confusion between displacements linked to climate change and other environmental degradation.

What has changed?  Issue of magnitude  Some predict up to 200 Mios displaced by 2050  This could double the number of migration worldwide  Issue of responsibility  Could open the way for global cooperation  … and compensation

How the debate is conceptualised today  The alarmist perspective  Made up primarily of environmental scholars, NGOs, and the media  Sees migration flows as one of the most devastating consequences of climate change  Policy agenda: mobilise action around climate change  Dominant perspective  The sceptical perspective  Made up primarily of migration scholars and refugee lawyers  Insists on the multi-causality of migration  Policy agenda: protect current rights of migrants and refugees

‘A disaster ready for consumption’ (Farbotko 2011 ) A debate disconnected from the realities of migration  Migrants are seen as expiatory, resourceless victims of climate change.  Many of them don’t consider themselves as victims, or don’t want to be considered as such.  Migrants are resourceful agents – they are not the most vulnerable.  Migration is perceived as an adaptation failure  In many cases, it can be an adaptation strategy.  We assume a direct, causal relationship between climate change and migration.  We expect that these displacements will be forced and international.  We assume that the nature and extent of the migration flows will depend upon the impacts of climate change.  Environmental determinism  Climate-induced migration often perceived as a threat to security.  In many cases, it can actually improve human security.

London Futures, exhibition at the Museum of London

The distribution of net population displacement over the twenty-first century by region assuming no protection for a 0.5 m (grey bars) and a 2.0 m (black bars) rise in sea level. Nicholls R J et al. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 2011;369: A deterministic perspective

A security agenda WBGU 2008