Status Report: NOAA’s Arctic Goals for IPY & Beyond John Calder and Kathleen Crane Arctic Research Program, CPO Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Menu State of the Arctic Report Current Activities NOAA’s Contributions to IPY Value to Society

State of the Arctic Report

SOA Table of Contents Atmosphere –Circulation –Surface temperatures –Forcing of changes Ocean –Circulation –Heat and freshwater content –Sea level Sea Ice Cover –Extent and thickness –Surface conditions Land –Vegetation –Water and ice –permafrost

Next SOA Topics Atmosphere Ocean Sea ice Land Greenland ice sheet Biology A new format will be used - a simple “report card” with back-up science papers.

Arctic Climate Observations The SOA report reinforces that the Arctic has to be considered as a system The Arctic Research Program from its inception has included ocean, ice, atmosphere and marine ecology as its main elements and continues to work in this way

Current Activities

Arctic Atmospheric Observing Network Arctic Change Detection and System Analysis RUSALCA North Pacific Climate Regimes and Ecosystem Productivity Arctic Sea Ice Thickness Observing Network

Tiksi, Russia Alert, Canada Barrow, Alaska Eureka, Canada Summit, Greenland Ny-Alesund, Svalbard International Arctic Systems for Observing the Atmosphere

Science Goals Provide multi-decadal cloud, radiation, aerosol, meteorological and flux data Use observations to understand atmospheric and surface processes at regional scale Apply data to improve model parameterizations Support calibration, algorithm development and validation for satellite observations Serve as logistics base for diverse science observations, e.g., permafrost borehole, etc

RUSALCA USA RUSSIA Observations where Arctic sea ice is reducing rapidly Bering St. fresh water, nutrient fluxes Regional physics and ecosystem response to change. Improve international Arctic science collaboration Explore the unknown Arctic with OE Russian American Long- term Census of the Arctic RUSALCA Goals:

A RUSALCA Goal: Gateway Fluxes via Long-term Moorings in Bering Strait NOAA, NSF, RAS will install 8 Moorings Across the Bering Strait in 2007

ACW BSW AW SSW Demersal fish distribution Fish community correlates reasonably well with water masses Fish community also correlates positively with substrate type Bottom Water Masses CF SCCF WCF NCF CF = Coastal Fish SCCF = South-Central Chukchi Fish WCF = Western Chukchi Fish NCF = Northern Chukchi Fish

Climate Change Scenarios in Eastern Chukchi Sea Increase in ACW conditions (fresher, warmer, less productive) Less infauna, reduction of biomass hotspot Probably unchanged epifauna ? Re-distribution of fishes (expansion of south-central Chukchi fish) Invasion of invertebrates and fishes from Bering Sea Longer food chains (less tight benthic-pelagic coupling)

Walleye Pollock Theragra chalcogramma Found Further North RUSALCA

North Pacific Climate Regimes & Ecosystem Productivity

Partnerships for Sustained Observations

Arctic Observing Network Interagency, international effort to observe over decades, changes in the environment in the Arctic to provide stakeholders with climate, weather, research and resource information critical for the global society.

Goal: Contribute To the design Of an Arctic Observing Network Based on the SEARCH Implementation Plan and Existing Operational Networks

Developing International Science Partnerships IPY Arctic Regional GOOS Arctic Observing Network (AON) and its developing international counterpart Arctic GEOSS

NOAA Arctic Research: Coordination International Interagency Intragency AON/GOOS/GEOSS

International Polar Year

International Polar Year: Exploration-Observations RUSALCA: Exploration of Marine Life in the Pacific- Arctic: What lives in this part of the Arctic Ocean? How will it migrate due to climate change?

International Polar Year: Arctic Observations Causes and Impacts of Recent Changes in the Pacific Arctic (RUSALCA) Polar Atmospheric Observatories and Field Campaigns (IASOA) Polar Stratospheric Ozone Depletion Observations Autonomous under-ice systems testing (AGAVE expedition, methane fluxes from the seafloor) Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS)

International Polar Year: Observations Causes and Impacts of Recent Changes in the Pacific Arctic (RUSALCA) Polar Atmospheric Observatories and Field Campaigns (IASOA) Polar Stratospheric Ozone Depletion Observations Autonomous under-ice vehicles (AGAVE expedition, methane sensing) Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS)

International Polar Year: Observations Causes and Impacts of Recent Changes in the Pacific Arctic (RUSALCA) Polar Atmospheric Observatories and Field Campaigns (IASOA) Polar Stratospheric Ozone Depletion Observations Autonomous under-ice vehicles (AGAVE expedition, methane detection) Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS)

A UAS base would address the Arctic’s unique environmental threats.

International Polar Year: Prediction & Modeling Short-term Arctic Predictability (STAP): THORPEX Advances in Satellite Products and their Use in Numerical Weather Prediction Arctic Climate Modeling:

International Polar Year: Data, Outreach & Decision Support NOAA’s Data, Information, and Change Detection Regional Integrated Science and Assessment (RISA) National Ice Center (NIC) Education: IPY/NSTA symposia Association of Science and Technology Centers (IGLO PROGRAM) Climate Change in the Arctic Ocean- Teacher Development project.

International Polar Year: Data, Outreach & Decision Support NOAA’s Data, Information, and Change Detection Regional Integrated Science and Assessment (RISA) National Ice Center (NIC) Education: IPY/NSTA symposia Association of Science and Technology Centers (IGLO PROGRAM) Climate Change in the Arctic Ocean- Teacher Development project.

Value to Society

Possible Arctic Influences on Global Climate Change: Increase of methane in the atmosphere due to a thaw in the permafrost on land and under water Fresh water /salt water unbalances, Ocean circulation disruption Changing albedo of the planet due to melting of sea ice and taller vegetation Extinction or migration of many species Rising sea level due to the melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet Increase in severe weather 26

Changes in sea ice cover Change in planetary albedo Melting permafrost release of greenhouse sequestered gases Melting Greenland ice sheet – Rises in sea level Atmospheric Influences on the total system are profound

Pacific Gateway Sea Ice thinning is predicted to Continue

Major Alterations of Fresh Water transport to the Atlantic Impact on global thermohaline circulation

Reduction of Arctic sea ice may encourage shipping from Asia to Europe through the Arctic. Effects on Commerce

Thank You