…empowering communities through modeling and adaptive management Sustaining Ecological Communities Through Citizen Science and Online Collaboration
…empowering communities through modeling and adaptive management Sustaining Ecological Communities Through Citizen Science and Online Collaboration Use of Models in Science
What is a model? A model is an abstraction of the actual thing. Most often these abstractions can be thought as simplified generalizations. There are many things we may seek to model:
What is a model? A model is an abstraction of the actual thing. Most often these abstractions can be thought as simplified generalizations. There are many things we may seek to model: Thoughts and Ideas
What is a model? A model is an abstraction of the actual thing. Most often these abstractions can be thought as simplified generalizations. There are many things we may seek to model: Thoughts and Ideas Mathematic functions
What is a model? A model is an abstraction of the actual thing. Most often these abstractions can be thought as simplified generalizations. There are many things we may seek to model: Thoughts and Ideas Mathematic functions A process
What is a model? A model is an abstraction of the actual thing. Most often these abstractions can be thought as simplified generalizations. There are many things we may seek to model: Thoughts and Ideas Mathematic functions A process Objects
What is a model? At its heart, a model is an explanation.
What is a model? At its heart, a model is an explanation. Thoughts and Ideas Traffic flow on Thursday’s commute
What is a model? At its heart, a model is an explanation. Thoughts and Ideas Traffic flow on Thursday’s commute Mathematical Functions Equations to describe a pattern
What is a model? At its heart, a model is an explanation. Thoughts and Ideas Traffic flow on Thursday’s commute Mathematical Functions Equations to describe a pattern Processes Cloud formation How yeast is needed to make bread
What is a model? At its heart, a model is an explanation. Thoughts and Ideas Traffic flow on Thursday’s commute Mathematical Functions Equations to describe a pattern Processes Cloud formation How yeast is needed to make bread Objects Drawings or 3-D replicas
How Models Are Used Model-based thinking B D C
How Models Are Used Model-based thinking B D C A E
How Models Are Used Model-based thinking B D C A E
How Models Are Used Model-based science B D C A E
How Models Are Used Model-based science B D C A E
How Models Are Used Model-based decision making B D C A E
How Models Are Used Model-based decision making B D C A E
Modeling Includes articulating a representation of an idea, event, or explanations.
Modeling Includes articulating a representation of an idea, event, or explanations. … seeking evidence to support or refute parts of a model.
Modeling Includes articulating a representation of an idea, event, or explanations. … seeking evidence to support or refute parts of a model. … refining a model with new evidence.
Modeling Includes articulating a representation of an idea, event, or explanations. … seeking evidence to support or refute parts of a model. … refining a model with new evidence. … testing the model.
Modeling Includes articulating a representation of an idea, event, or explanations. … seeking evidence to support or refute parts of a model. … refining a model with new evidence. … testing the model. … refining the model again with new evidence.
Modeling Includes articulating a representation of an idea, event, or explanations. … seeking evidence to support or refute parts of a model. … refining a model with new evidence. … testing the model. … refining the model again with new evidence. … integrating into other concepts.
Ever wonder why?
I think that on warm days, my cell phone dies more quickly. Could this be so?
Let’s see… “Well on warm days, I do tend to use my phone more… but just yesterday it died early, and I barely used it!” The above is a explanation or model of what is happening. Let’s see how she represents her idea.
Model #1 Summer Session
Model #1 Summer Session Energy stored in battery
Model #1 Summer Session Energy stored in battery Time spent in class Free time Cell phone use
Model #1 Summer Session Energy stored in battery Time spent in class Free time Cell phone use
Model #1 Summer Session Energy stored in battery Time spent in class Free time Cell phone use _
Model #1 Summer Session Energy stored in battery Time spent in class Free time Cell phone use _ _
Model #1 Summer Session Energy stored in battery Time spent in class Free time Cell phone use _ _+
Model #1 Summer Session Energy stored in battery Time spent in class Free time Cell phone use _ _ _ +
Model #1 Summer Session Energy stored in battery Time spent in class Free time Cell phone use _ _ _ +
Model #1 Summer Session Energy stored in battery Time spent in class Cell phone use _ _ _ + ??? _ Free time
Next steps What should Amanda do?
Next steps What should Amanda do? Not worry about it?
Next steps What should Amanda do? Not worry about it? See an expert?
Next steps What should Amanda do? Not worry about it? See an expert? Test her assumption?
Next steps What should Amanda do? Not worry about it? See an expert? Test her assumption?
Next Steps Amanda decides to collect data and finds a strong correlation between heat and battery life. She next wonders if this is a causal relationship, so she looks up information about battery life from scientific publications and from the manufacturer. And sure enough she finds a convincing explanation, and revises her mental model.
Alternative Model Energy stored in battery _ + Heat Rate of chemical reactions
Alternative Model Energy stored in battery Heat Rate of chemical reactions Some other, unknown component _
…empowering communities through modeling and adaptive management Summer Session Energy stored in battery Time spent in class Free time Cell phone use _ _ _ + _ + Heat Rate of chemical reactions +
Model-Based Thinking Can you remember a time that you used similar type thinking?
Key Principles See which model or explanation best accounts for the data or information on hand.
Key Principles See which model or explanation best accounts for the data or information on hand. Our models improve the more we know, if we ask the right questions.
Key Principles See which model or explanation best accounts for the data or information on hand. Our models improve the more we know, if we ask the right questions. Diagraming a model can help us to represent and communicate ideas.
Key Principles See which model or explanation best accounts for the data or information on hand. Our models improve the more we know, if we ask the right questions. Diagraming a model can help us to represent and communicate ideas. Testing the assumptions of a model helps support our ideas.
Key Principles Diagraming a model can help us to represent, clarify, expand upon, and communicate ideas.
Key Principles Diagraming a model can help us to represent, clarify, expand upon, and communicate ideas.
The more we know… What is in the bag?
The more we know… Something heavy?
The more we know… Something big?
The more we know… Something solid?
The more we know… Something that can be dissolved?
The more we know… Anything smaller than the bag
The more we know… Anything smaller than the bag Anything that is solid
The more we know… Anything smaller than the bag Anything that is solid Anything that matches measured weight
The more we know… Anything smaller than the bag Anything that can be dissolved Anything that is solid Anything that matches measured weight
The more we know… Anything smaller than the bag Anything that can be dissolved Anything that is solid Anything that matches measured weight Items that meet ALL criteria
The more we know… While we do not know what is in the bag, we are informing the model in our minds. We are able to test ideas and rule out certain possibilities. This makes for better assumptions!
Drawing out ideas… Here is a box. I’ll show you two sides. Side 1
Drawing out ideas Here is a box. I’ll show you two sides. Side 2
Where’s the washer? The box has three sticks that poke out of each side. There is a washer on one of those sticks. How would you figure out where the washer is located?
Where’s the washer? A model? Which is more plausible? Straight sticks of curved ones? Why?
Where’s the washer? Now we can being to test ideas!
Model-Based Decision Making
…empowering communities through modeling and adaptive management The Virginia Master Naturalist Program is sponsored by the following agencies:
Model-Based Decision Making Make observations and define an issue Model observations or issues based on what is known Run the model scenarios and possibly test the model Refine the model with evidence from scenario tests Integrate into wider system Make recommendations or change practices