Short-term Travel Time Prediction with Neural Network Models Wonjae Jang Civil & Environmental Engineering ECE 539 Term Project

Project Description Application of ANN to predict travel time 1-5 time periods ahead for one roadway segment on Beltline highway (3-15 minutes prediction) Simulation of traffic condition using CORSIM Comparing results from several models run

Background Traffic Control  Induce Traffic divergence  Ramp metering Advance Traveler Information System (Route Guidance System)  Need to predict travel time several time steps ahead Data Availability  Surveillance systems (CCTV, detector)  Other technologies

Existing Approaches Use Historical Data Use Real Time Data Historical + Real Time (aH(h,t)+(1-a)Rt(t-1)) ARIMA Kalman Filtering ANN

ANN Applied MLP – Back Propagation algorithm was used  ANN I Use L u (t-1), L t (t-1), L d (t-1) as input  ANN II Use L u (t-5),…, L u (t-1), L t (t- 5),…, L t (t-1), L d (t-5),…, L d (t-1) as input  ANN III Use L 1 (t-1), L 2 (t-1),…, L n (t- 1), L u (t-1), L t (t-1), L d (t-1) w/wo R 1 (t-1), R 2 (t-1),…, R n (t-1) utd utd1…n 1 n

Results