Why focus on youth? Tony Dent, Chairman Alliance of International Research Institutes and Sample Answers Ltd 22/02/2016Measuring a Changing WorldSheraton Hotel, Brooklyn 1

Well the short answer is.. “Youth is too important to be left to the young” 22/02/2016Measuring a Changing World 2

World Midyear Population by Age and Sex for 2016 AGE POPULATIONMALESFEMALESRatio (M/F)% (Total Pop)Cum % (Total Pop) Total7,302,588,5543,675,651,3853,626,937, % ,566,410326,679,427306,886, % ,861,881317,770,896297,090, %17.1% ,188,622310,116,665289,071, %25.3% ,940,552305,413,998285,526, %33.4% ,476,199304,166,354287,309, %41.5% ,847,597305,616,717292,230, %49.7% ,376,001280,484,514270,891, %57.2% ,189,891255,158,026247,031, %64.1% ,149,400244,449,653238,699, %70.7% ,255,486231,705,556228,549, %77.0% ,938,375205,667,056208,271, %82.7% ,447,071164,420,043171,027, %87.3% ,786,743142,355,387152,431, %91.3% ,865,610107,819,712119,045, %94.4% ,115,09773,029,99885,085, %96.6% ,487,27851,759,98666,727, %98.2% ,059,32830,165,38943,893, %99.2% ,164,29113,772,85624,391, %99.8% ,056,2454,200,0279,856, %99.9% ,257,880791,7912,466, %100.0% ,597107,334451, %100.0% 22/02/2016Measuring a Changing World3

World Midyear Population by Age and Gender for 2042 AGEPOPULATIONMALESFEMALESRATIO (MF)% (Total Pop) Cum % (Total Pop) Total8,899,530,2264,452,320,0894,447,210, % ,787,296322,338,049308,449, % ,613,056318,108,483304,504, %14.1% ,754,345316,497,145302,257, %21.0% ,825,715317,120,111302,705, %28.0% ,550,465318,117,699303,432, %35.0% ,794,465316,850,084300,944, %41.9% ,619,847310,211,793293,408, %48.7% ,813,523299,465,277282,348, %55.2% ,511,390290,852,258274,659, %61.6% ,441,171286,299,784273,141, %67.9% ,256,706281,527,069273,729, %74.1% ,290,466253,595,301253,695, %79.8% ,075,941221,252,974227,822, %84.9% ,056,077191,182,310205,873, %89.3% ,042,515163,871,403186,171, %93.3% ,440,206120,757,981150,682, %96.3% ,894,39369,264,13898,630, %98.2% ,476,84437,272,08763,204, %99.3% ,385,17213,836,84729,548, %99.8% ,670,3273,297,7259,372, %100.0% 100+3,230,306601,5712,628, %100.0% 22/02/2016Measuring a Changing World4

World Midyear Population by Age and Gender for 2000 AGE POPULATIONMALESFEMALESRatio (M/F)% (Total Pop)Cum % (Total Pop) Total6,089,648,7843,066,548,1383,023,100, % ,810,988316,030,784294,780, % ,411,509312,603,262292,808, %20.0% ,516,584313,748,946296,767, %30.0% ,905,800287,028,233273,877, %39.2% ,178,457263,259,947252,918, %47.7% ,281,987257,750,491248,531, %56.0% ,425,346242,456,446234,968, %63.8% ,567,526214,764,957210,802, %70.8% ,997,940185,170,485182,827, %76.9% ,715,877164,042,662163,673, %82.3% ,953,249132,439,214132,514, %86.6% ,855,616104,330,172106,525, %90.1% ,903,93990,742,30696,161, %93.1% ,089,54872,132,25079,957, %95.6% ,418,26153,350,74165,067, %97.6% ,584,52932,566,13046,018, %98.9% ,890,18515,527,22425,362, %99.5% ,253,3926,554,75713,698, %99.9% ,446,8101,733,2784,713, %100.0% ,286,393284,9121,001, %100.0% ,84830,941123, %100.0% 22/02/2016Measuring a Changing World5

In Summary. Age2000 (%)2016 (%)2042 (%) %25.3%21.0% %24.4%20.9% %21.0%19.7% %16.6%18.2% %9.3%13.4% %3.4%6.7% Total Pop6,089,648,7847,302,588,5548,899,530,226 22/02/2016Measuring a Changing World6 Key Facts: Population growth from 2000 to 2016 was 20%, an average of just 1.25% per annum. Over the next 25 years it is projected to be just 22% - average 0.88% per annum. By comparison the age group under 30 grew by just over 6% in the last 16 years and is projected to grow by less than 3% over the next 25 years (from 0.4% to 0.1% per annum).

Too important? “Generations Past” – Youth in East Africa’s History. – “as an academic topic it appears that youth has come of age….however, youthful predominance has been characteristic of African societies for at least half a century now. Taking mainland Tanzania as an example … in 1948, 45% of the population were under 16 and 90% were under 45 years old.” – The book provides a fascinating insight into the changes in society wrought by increased urbanisation and the decline of traditional tribal ‘values’. 22/02/2016Measuring a Changing World7

A universal problem.. Why is youth unemployment a critical issue in fragile states? Grievances among the young are most likely to be expressed violently, if non-violent political channels are not adequate or responsive (USAID 2006), and these grievances revolve around unemployment, involving considerations of both income and social cohesion. One in two young people who join a rebel movement cites unemployment as the main reason for doing so (World Bank, 2011b). In Liberia, which has suffered two civil wars since 1989, driven by a combustible mix of ethnic divisions, predatory elites, corruption and competition for the profits from natural resources, today it is unemployment that is seen as a major risk to stability (International Crisis Group, 2011). Conflict in one country shaves an estimated 0.5 percentage points off the annual rate of growth in a neighbouring country (Collier et al., 2003). It can create a refugee population, disrupt trade, provoke an arms race, provide a haven for rebels and itself become theatre of a new war. 22/02/2016Measuring a Changing World8

Measuring a changing world? Extract from an article by Ed Jessup “Connect with young consumers using inclusive niche marketing” While the LGBT community continues to become more visible in the media, marketers and researchers would do well to also note society’s changing attitudes toward gender and sexual preference. A far-reaching 2013 global survey by the Pew Research Center showed an acceptance rate of homosexuality at 60 percent in the U.S. and 80 percent in Canada. An additional poll published in 2015 by the Pew Research Center demonstrated that attitudes toward same-sex marriage in the U.S. have gone from 35 percent of Americans supporting this idea back in 2001 to a 55 percent rate of supporters in In the same study by Pew, the support rate in 2015 for same-sex marriage climbed to 59 percent with Gen Xers and to a whopping 70 percent with Millennials. 22/02/2016Measuring a Changing World9

But the young have already won.. In the past 50 years or so, from Rock and Roll to Facebook our culture has been completely altered in almost every country in the world … by the young! There are reactionary forces who dislike the changes and wish to re-assert ‘traditional’ values and they actively recruit disaffected youth to their cause. But do we really believe that the clock can be turned back in that way? 22/02/2016Measuring a Changing World10

So – focus on the young Because they are your tomorrow 22/02/2016Measuring a Changing World11

Postscript.. If you haven’t done so – please complete our survey on training for International Research. To do so go to and please encourage others to complete it! 22/02/2016Measuring a Changing World12