GREENING CITIES: IS GOOD WILL ENOUGH ? Jean-Marc Jancovici September 17th, 2012 Contact :

Homo industrialis, GDP++ and 2 questions CnHpCnHp O2O2 CO 2 Job structure, studies, leisure and holidays, health, retirement, globalization, information society, urban concentration and sprawling… ??? 80% of energy supply in the world

Oil shock Rising costs of anything Recession Lower revenues or margin Fear of a future climate change or oil shock Stronger public policies Higher expectations of customers or voters Norms, quotas, taxes, etc Reputation risk, legal risk Banks pay more attention to “dependency on carbon” Risk assessment of lending or investing money includes carbon Harder conditions for “carbon rich” projects “oil crunch” on supply Rising energy prices Lack of investment Higher NGO activity Carbon footprinting is actually… risk and opportunity assessment Existing climate change Changing conditions for a lot of things and decreasing agricultural yields

One French: 10,5 tons CO 2 equ in 2010 ± 20% 4 13% 18% 3% 17% 18% 31% 24% 23% 18% 17% 4% Meat38 % Heating 90% 15% TVs - computers - etc 33% Freight 15% Freight 6% Car travel 80% Public services 72% Energy consumption of homes Home construction and heavy repairs Food Other consumer goods Personal travel (excludes professional travel)

Evolution from 2008 to 2010: lots of talk, less results 5Eco2climat +1% +1,1%