Probability

1 in 1 x 10 How Did We Calculate the Probability of a Protein Forming by Chance? 195

Probability Define probability Review how to calculate probability Look at probability calculations common in origins discussions

Probability Likelihood or chance Expressed as a fraction

Probability of Rolling a “4”

Probability of Landing on Red

Probability of getting red

Probability of getting blue

Probability of getting green

Probability of getting purple

Probability of Multiple Events

Possible Outcomes

Number of: Digits Dials

Number of: Digits Dials

4 =10,000 Number of: Digits Dials

4 = 10,000

4 5

4 5 = 11,881,376

150 amino acids long 5150 How many possible combinations exist?

How many possible combinations exist? 150 amino acids long Signature in the Cell, Stephen C. Meyer, page 181

The Probability for a Specific Amino Acid Sequence

The Probability for a Specific Amino Acid Sequence 195

The Probability for a Specific Amino Acid Sequence

The Probability for a Specific Amino Acid Sequence 195

The Probability for a Specific Amino Acid Sequence 195

Useful Protein? ?

What proportion of amino acid sequences can fold and potentially form useful proteins?

What proportion of amino acid sequences can fold? 195 ?

What proportion of amino acid sequences can fold? 195 ?

What proportion of amino acid sequences can fold? 195 ? 74

Factors that Affect Probability Specific amino acid sequences Ability to fold

Factors that Affect Probability Specific amino acid sequences Ability to fold Chirality Chemical bonding

Factors that Affect Probability Specific amino acid sequences Ability to fold Chirality (“right-handed” or “left-handed”) Chemical bonding Amino acid forms – Right-handed – Left-handed Only left-handed ones are used in living cells

Factors that Affect Probability Specific amino acid sequences Ability to fold Chirality (“right-handed” or “left-handed”) Chemical bonding Probability of choosing a single, left-handed amino acid = ½

Factors that Affect Probability Specific amino acid sequences Ability to fold Chirality (“right-handed” or “left-handed”) Chemical bonding The probability of choosing 150 left-handed amino acids in a row is (1/2) 150, or 1 in

Factors that Affect Probability Specific amino acid sequences Ability to fold Chirality Chemical bonding

Factors that Affect Probability Specific amino acid sequences Ability to fold Chirality Chemical bonding Probability of two amino acids joining by a peptide bond = ½

Factors that Affect Probability Specific amino acid sequences Ability to fold Chirality Chemical bonding The probability of 150 amino acids joining only by peptide bonding is (1/2) 150, or 1 in

Probability of one functional protein by chance

150 amino acids long Signature in the Cell, Stephen C. Meyer, page

Probability of one functional protein by chance 150 amino acids long Signature in the Cell, Stephen C. Meyer, page

Probability of one functional protein by chance 150 amino acids long Signature in the Cell, Stephen C. Meyer, page

Probability of one functional protein by chance 150 amino acids long Signature in the Cell, Stephen C. Meyer, page 212

Probability of one functional protein by chance 164 Signature in the Cell, Stephen C. Meyer, page

The Problem of Contamination These calculations do not reflect the problem of contamination. In the real world, other chemicals are present that would interfere with protein formation, reducing the probability effectively to zero.

Could It Happen Anyway? Suppose we ignore the problem of contamination, And suppose we ignore the problem of where the amino acids would come from, And suppose we ignore the problem of finding the right conditions for the amino acids to react together, Is it reasonable to think that a protein might form by chance?

How many opportunities have there been for this to happen?

What Probabilities Are Reasonable? Probability of a protein forming by chance (assuming the universe was composed only of amino acids) Number of events scientists say have occurred in the history of the universe ? 164

80 Signature in the Cell, Stephen C. Meyer, page 212 Events in the History of the Universe

80 43 Events in the History of the Universe

Events in the History of the Universe

Events in the History of the Universe

Comparing Probabilities 150 amino acids long

How likely would this be? Like a Boeing 747 being assembled by a tornado blowing through a junkyard

Conclusions Even if the universe were made entirely of amino acids, it is unrealistic to expect a protein to form by chance. Living organisms require hundreds or thousands of proteins in order to live. Creation is the best explanation for the origin of living organisms.

Recorded at Chattanooga Public Radio SM Classical 90.5 WSMC

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Special Thanks Jim Gibson Geoscience Research Institute and the Foundation for Adventist Education

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