Validation and Sensitivity Testing of the Metropolitan Council Phase I Minneapolis-St. Paul Socioeconomic Land Use Forecasting Model Colby Brown, AICP PTP Dennis Farmer, AICP May 9, 2012

The Metropolitan Council is the regional planning agency serving the seven-county Twin Cities (Minneapolis-St. Paul) metropolitan area – operates the region's largest transit system – collects and treats wastewater – engages communities and the public in planning for future growth – provides affordable housing opportunities for low- and moderate-income individuals and families – provides planning, acquisitions and funding for a regional system of parks and trails – provides a framework for decisions and implementation for regional systems including aviation, transportation, parks and open space, water quality and water management. – provides forecasts of the region's population and household growth 2010 Population: 2,849,567 The Twin Cities Metro Region

Overview of Model Architecture

Data Flows Between Sub-Models Cube Land predicts real estate development and allocates total regional jobs by industry and households by type to TAZs in the region Regional Economic Model Regional Demographic Model Cube Land Total Jobs by Industry Total Households by Type Job & Household Locations Cube Voyager Congested Accessibility

Residential Validation Results Correlation by Income Population by TAZ Households by TAZ

Strong model correlation with reality Non-Residential Validation Results

Purpose of Sensitivity Testing Ensure that the model responds in a reasonable manner to changes in inputs Evaluate a variety of hypothetical (and sometimes extreme/unrealistic) scenarios 3 transportation tests, 3 land-use policy tests All tests are “counterfactual” 2010 runs to facilitate comparison with validation

Preliminary Phase I Sensitivity Tests ScenarioHouseholdsEmployees 2010 BaselineReasonable Remove linksReasonableCorrect direction but weak Change speedsReasonableCorrect direction but weak TransitReasonable Changes to service areasCorrect direction but weak Developed growthReasonable sensitivity; however, constraints not fully met Transportation scenarios were generally more successful than land-use policy scenarios Phase II now underway to improve results