The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 18 November 2012 For more information,

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The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status

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The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status

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The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 18 November 2012 For more information, visit:

Outline Highlights Recent Evolution and Current Conditions NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Climatology

During the last 7 days, below-average precipitation was observed over most of South America. Above-average rainfall was mainly found over Colombia and central-southeastern Brazil. For November, above-average precipitation is predicted for Bolivia, southeastern Peru, and eastern Argentina, and below- average precipitation is predicted to the north of 10S, southern- southeastern Brazil, and southwestern Peru. For 25 Nov – 1 Dec, above-average precipitation is predicted over northern, central and southeastern Brazil, and portions of central Colombia and Bolivia, and below-average precipitation is predicted over northeastern and northwestern South America, northern Argentina, and extreme southern Brazil. Highlights

Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days During the last 7 days, below-average precipitation was observed over most of South America. Above-average rainfall was mainly found over Colombia and central- southeastern Brazil. TotalAnomaly

Rainfall Totals & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days During the last 30 days, below-average precipitation was observed over most regions north of 10S. Above-average precipitation was mainly found over portions of central Columbia, central and southeastern Brazil, and portions of Argentina. TotalAnomaly

BP Recent Evolution: Rainfall Last 90 Days BP: Brazilian Plateau In spite of the recent heavy rainfall, 90-day rainfall totals are clearly below average over the southern Amazon basin and the Brazilian Plateau. 90-day rainfall totals are also below average over southern Brazil.

Tropical Pacific and Atlantic SST Anomalies A weekly PowerPoint summarizing the ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions is available at: Above-average SSTs are observed in the equatorial Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Above-average SSTs are found in 10-20N and below-average SSTs are observed in S in the Atlantic Ocean. (For more details concerning El Niño – La Niña, go to the link below.)

Atmospheric Circulation Recent 7 days Upper panels: During the period of 9-15 November, near-normal upper-tropospheric flow was observed over South America, with an anomalous cyclonic circulation (red C) along 35S. Lower panels: Anomalous rising motion (negative omega) was observed over Brazil and northwestern South America, while sinking motion was found over northeastern South America and along 25S. Rising motion (negative omega, yellow/red shading), usually associated with wetter- than- normal conditions. Sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading), usually associated with drier-than-normal conditions. C

925-hPa Wind &Temperature Recent 30 DaysRecent 7 Days Low-level (~600 m above sea level) wind and temperature anomalies based on the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation Systems (CDAS) analysis. The patterns of anomalous temperature and wind at 925-hPa are usually similar to surface observations. Note: Areas with surface pressure below 925-hPa are masked out. During the 7-day period of 9-15 November 2012, temperatures were near average over South America, with below-average temperatures over northeastern Argentina and Uruguay.

NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation Total Forecasts from 18 Nov 2012 – Days 1-7 Anomaly Note: Note: Bias correction based on last 30-day forecast error.

NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation Total Forecasts from 18 Nov 2012 – Days 8-14 Anomaly Note: Note: Bias correction based on last 30-day forecast error.

For Days 1-7 (18-24 November), above-average precipitation is predicted for Bolivia, southeastern Peru, and eastern Argentina, and below-average precipitation is predicted to the north of 10S, southern-southeastern Brazil, and southwestern Peru. For Days 8-14 (25 Nov – 1 Dec), above-average precipitation is predicted over northern, central and southeastern Brazil, and portions of central Colombia and Bolivia, and below-average precipitation is predicted over northeastern and northwestern South America, northern Argentina, and extreme southern Brazil. NCEP/GFS MODEL FORECASTS

Forecast Verification Forecast from 5 Nov 2012 Valid Nov 2012 Forecast from 13 Nov 2012 Valid Nov 2012 Observed Nov 2012

Climatology Rainy Season Dates ONSETDEMISE

Precipitation Climatology

Precipitation Climatology Animation