1 Emission and Air Quality Trends Review North Carolina May 2013

2 Project Objective  To develop and present publicly available information on trends in emissions and ambient air quality in the U.S. since 1999 in easy to understand visual and tabular formats

3 Emission Trends  Study Team collected and processed U.S. EPA emission inventories for years within the study period of interest ( )  By pollutant and source category electric generation fuel combustion mobile sources industrial fuel combustion & industrial processes all other

4 Emissions Data Summary  Data Obtained from EPA National Emission Inventory (NEI) and Trends Websites EPA’s Trends reports and emission comparisons include interpolations of all categories between key years (1999, 2002, 2005, 2008, 2011) at county-pollutant level Represented Pollutants: VOC, NOx, SO 2, and PM 2.5  Project Improvement The Study Team augmented above data with year specific CEM emissions (2002 through 2011)

5 Emission Changes  The following slides also include the tonnage-based emissions change from 1999 to 2011 for each pollutant  Negative values indicate decrease in emissions, positive values indicate an increase

6 North Carolina Emission Trends (VOC) Annual Emissions (Tons) Source Category Electric Utility Coal Fuel Combustion ,1611, Mobile Sources259,222247,945227,160203,348192,208181,068195,149187,575180,000173,384 Industrial Fuel Combustion & Processes320,365317,740276,771269,474267,158264,843262,544260,222257,910193,638 All Others Total580,560566,683504,937473,882460,604447,627458,685448,713438,919367,950 Annual Emissions Change (Percent since 1999) Source Category Electric Utility Coal Fuel Combustion0%2%12%22%43%98%10%0%9%-13% Mobile Sources0%-4%-12%-22%-26%-30%-25%-28%-31%-33% Industrial Fuel Combustion & Processes0%-1%-14%-16%-17% -18%-19% -40% All Others0%5%-38%-54%-53%-31%-40%-36%-25%40% Total0%-2%-13%-18%-21%-23%-21%-23%-24%-37%

7 North Carolina Emission Trends (VOC)

8 North Carolina Emission Trends (NOx) Annual Emissions (Tons) Source Category Electric Utility Coal Fuel Combustion204,425147,080144,374113,173107,68162,82560,52844,17653,50641,072 Mobile Sources361,880345,161329,738369,455348,905328,355326,569306,134285,699266,563 Industrial Fuel Combustion & Processes80,25679,21260,49557,30257,21657,13059,77758,82659,42450,082 All Others2,9843,1132,5882,3892,2263,2923,0462,5653,9922,688 Total649,545574,566537,195542,319516,028451,602449,920411,700402,620360,405 Annual Emissions Change (Percent since 1999) Source Category Electric Utility Coal Fuel Combustion0%-28%-29%-45%-47%-69%-70%-78%-74%-80% Mobile Sources0%-5%-9%2%-4%-9%-10%-15%-21%-26% Industrial Fuel Combustion & Processes0%-1%-25%-29% -26%-27%-26%-38% All Others0%4%-13%-20%-25%10%2%-14%34%-10% Total0%-12%-17% -21%-30%-31%-37%-38%-45%

9 North Carolina Emission Trends (NOx)

10 North Carolina Emission Trends (SO 2 ) Annual Emissions (Tons) Source Category Electric Utility Coal Fuel Combustion461,636452,913496,988519,467479,291386,585246,881125,809130,10282,604 Mobile Sources18,19218,12726,93415,44413,52511,6066,8345,7124,5893,111 Industrial Fuel Combustion & Processes98,791101,74769,16070,35770,19570,03382,14074,73371,89732,579 All Others2,8642,6372,1351,4301,4101,6291,6001,4091,4621,300 Total581,484575,424595,216606,699564,420469,853337,456207,663208,049119,594 Annual Emissions Change (Percent since 1999) Source Category Electric Utility Coal Fuel Combustion0%-2%8%13%4%-16%-47%-73%-72%-82% Mobile Sources0% 48%-15%-26%-36%-62%-69%-75%-83% Industrial Fuel Combustion & Processes0%3%-30%-29% -17%-24%-27%-67% All Others0%-8%-25%-50%-51%-43%-44%-51%-49%-55% Total0%-1%2%4%-3%-19%-42%-64% -79%

11 North Carolina Emission Trends (SO 2 )

12 North Carolina Emission Trends (PM 2.5 ) Annual Emissions (Tons) Source Category Electric Utility Coal Fuel Combustion22,05021,99917,24415,57214,78215,70315,52413,78914,7936,578 Mobile Sources13,03111,98415,38214,80514,07113,33813,79613,01112,22611,445 Industrial Fuel Combustion & Processes56,96954,60045,31847,01846,77746,53646,78746,35146,20929,142 All Others56,91540,98522,06622,06722,07222,07422,06422,05422,06331,779 Total148,965129,567100,01099,46197,70397,65198,17195,20695,29178,945 Annual Emissions Change (Percent since 1999) Source Category Electric Utility Coal Fuel Combustion0% -22%-29%-33%-29%-30%-37%-33%-70% Mobile Sources0%-8%18%14%8%2%6%0%-6%-12% Industrial Fuel Combustion & Processes0%-4%-20%-17%-18% -19% -49% All Others0%-28%-61% -44% Total0%-13%-33% -34% -36% -47%

13 North Carolina Emission Trends (PM 2.5 )

14 Emission Trends Summary  All pollutants have decreased since 1999 in aggregate across North Carolina  NOx and SO2 from Electric Utility Fuel Combustion sources show significant decrease over time as a result of Acid Rain Program, NOx Budget Trading Program and CAIR control implementation  Onroad emission step increase seen between 2004 and 2005 is the result of EPA’s method change and MOVES model integration for estimating onroad mobile source emissions

15 Air Quality Design Values  Ozone Annual 4 th highest daily maximum 8-hour average averaged over three consecutive years Current standard = ppm  PM 2.5 Annual Annual arithmetic mean of quarterly means averaged over three consecutive years Current standard = 12 ug/m 3  PM Hour Annual 98 th percentile of daily averages averaged over three consecutive years Current standard = 35 ug/m 3

16 State-Wide Design Value (DV) Trends  Trends in state-wide maximum DV and average DV Max DV: Maximum DVs over all valid trend monitoring sites in the state in each overlapping three year period Average DV: Average of DVs over all valid trend monitoring sites in the state in each overlapping three year period  Compute linear trend via least-squares regression

17 Data Handling Procedures  O 3 design value (DV) for each overlapping three- year period starting with and ending with DV calculated using annual 4 th highest daily max 8-hr averages and percent of valid observations, based on EPA data handling conventions Data associated with exceptional events that have received EPA concurrence are omitted Selection of trend sites require valid DV in 9 out of 11 three-year periods between 1999 and 2011 Identification of nonattainment areas is with respect to the hour standard only

18 Data Handling Procedures  Annual PM 2.5 DV and 24-hr PM 2.5 DV for each overlapping three-year period starting with and ending with DV calculations based on EPA data handling conventions Data extracted from monitors that have a non- regulatory monitoring type are omitted Selection of trend sites require valid DV in 9 out of 11 three-year periods between 1999 and 2011

19 Trend Calculation  Trends based on linear least squares fit to rolling three year design values (DVs)  Negative trend indicates improving air quality  DVs based on each 3-year period: , , …  Notes On plots, DVs are for three year period ending in year shown (i.e., DV plotted as 2011 value) Ozone trend values expressed as ppb/year (1,000 ppb = 1 ppm); DVs are plotted as ppm Scale in units of ppm Trend in units of ppb/year

20 Max/Ave O 3 DVs and Trend

21 Ozone Trends by Site in North Carolina Note: Only monitoring sites meeting data completeness criteria listed Monitoring SitesCounty DV [ppm] Trend [ppm/yr] Avery, NC Buncombe, NC Caldwell, NC Caswell, NC Chatham, NC Cumberland, NC Cumberland, NC Davie, NCN/A Edgecombe, NC Forsyth, NC Forsyth, NC

22 Ozone Trends by Site in North Carolina Note: Only monitoring sites meeting data completeness criteria listed Monitoring SitesCounty DV [ppm] Trend [ppm/yr] Franklin, NC Granville, NC Haywood, NCN/A Haywood, NCN/A Haywood, NC Johnston, NC Lenoir, NC Lincoln, NC Martin, NC Mecklenburg, NC

23 Ozone Trends by Site in North Carolina Note: Only monitoring sites meeting data completeness criteria listed Monitoring SitesCounty DV [ppm] Trend [ppm/yr] Mecklenburg, NC Mecklenburg, NC Person, NC Rockingham, NC Rowan, NC Rowan, NC Swain, NC Union, NC Wake, NC Wake, NC

24 Max/Ave PM 2.5 Annual DVs and Trend

25 Max/Ave PM Hour DVs and Trend

26 PM 2.5 Trends by Site in North Carolina Note: Only monitoring sites meeting data completeness criteria listed DV [ug/m 3 ] Trend [ug/m 3 per year] Monitoring SiteCountyAnnual24-HrAnnual DV24-Hr DV Alamance Buncombe Caswell Catawba Chatham Cumberland Davidson Duplin Forsyth Gaston Jackson9.4N/A-0.39N/A

27 PM 2.5 Trends by Site in North Carolina Note: Only monitoring sites meeting data completeness criteria listed DV [ug/m 3 ] Trend [ug/m 3 per year] Monitoring SiteCountyAnnual24-HrAnnual DV24-Hr DV Lenoir McDowell Mecklenburg Mecklenburg Mitchell Montgomery Robeson Swain Wake Wayne

28 Air Quality Trends Summary  Average O 3 and PM 2.5 design values have decreased since 1999 in North Carolina  O 3 design values have decreased since 1999 in Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC- SC, the only currently designated O 3 non- attainment area in North Carolina; there are no currently designated PM 2.5 non- attainment areas in North Carolina.