1 Systems Thinking and Climate Change For USAID Washington, DC – February 23, 2016 Dennis Meadows

2 Exercise: Avalanche

3 Main Lessons 1A system may not behave the way expected and wanted by those who created it. 2Obvious solutions will be ineffective, if they do not change the real causes. 3Good intentions do not compensate for failure to understand the causes. 4Once you understand the causes, it may be quite simple to change them (and it may not.)

4 Outline of Remarks 1Indicate 7 levels of systems understanding 2Discuss general behavior patterns of a bathtub. 3Describe the three bathtubs that represent the global climate system. 4Identify basic system behaviors that characterize climate change. 5Point out some political implications of the behaviors. 6Stress the importance of combining adaptation with prevention.

5 The 7 Levels of Systems Understanding Tell Stories Identify Behavior Patterns Describe Causal Links Adapt to the Problem Cure the Problem Prevent the Problem Explain the Problem Focus of My Talk

6 Water In Water Out

7 Possible Behavior of Water in a Bathtub In = Out; Water level constant In > Out; Water level rises In < Out; Water level falls

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9 CO 2 Emissions CO 2 in Atmosphere Fossil fuel combustion + deforestation Absorption in the ocean + Mineral & Biomass Uptake

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11 Net Energy from the Sun Heat in Atmosphere Thermal Radiation to Space & Absorption in the Ocean

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13 Regeneration Complexity and Diversity of the Biosphere Deterioration & Extinction

14 GHG in Atmosphere & Oceans GHG in Atmosphere & Oceans Net Energy from the Sun Heat in Atmosphere & Oceans Thermal Radiation To Space Variations in wind, temperature, sea level, precipitation Complexity and Diversity of the Biosphere Deterioration & Extinction Main Causes and Effects of Global Climate Change

15 GHG in Atmosphere & Oceans GHG in Atmosphere & Oceans Net Energy from the Sun Heat in Atmosphere & Oceans Thermal Radiation To Space Variation in wind, temperature, sea level, precipitation Complexity and Diversity of the Biosphere Deterioration & Extinction Tipping Points

16 Important Characteristics of the Climate System 1Long delays -> drastic reductions are required in emissions to achieve declining CO 2 levels 2Tipping points 3Worse before better; better before worse 4The points of control are VERY far in space, time from the points of concern and in VERY different institutions. 5Therefore tragedy of the commons

17 Seek resilience, not sustainability 1Resilience is the ability to absorb a shock and quickly regain the ability to perform essential functions. 1If a resilient system continues to perform without pause, we say it is durable. 2If a resilient system quits performing briefly and then resumes, we say it is flexible. 2If a system is not resilient, we say it is brittle.

18 Five Ways to Increase Resilience/Sustainability 1Improve Efficiency 2Raise the Barrier 3Increase Redundancy 4Create Bigger Inventories 5Develop better Predictions

19 Trade-off between Long-term Resilience and Short-term Results Long-term Resilience Short-term Results

20 Worse before Better NowFuture Better > Next Evaluation Action #1 Action #2 Actual Desired

21 Exercise: Thumb Wrestling