Advanced LCA - Course Intro Lecture 1 Advanced LCA

Course meta-objective Be able to apply scientific methodology in Life Cycle Assessment and industrial ecology work Some theory, but focus on practical knowledge and skills

Just because something is in print doesn ’ t mean it ’ s true (even in an academic journal)

Example 1: Desktop LCA Study commissioned by the European Union to inform development of computer eco-label Performed by consulting company: Atlantic/IPU, completed in page final report

Example 1: Desktop LCA Result for water requirements to manufacture a desktop system: 1.6 million liters! Consistency check: if true, world production in 2000 of 120 million computers requires 40% of world industrial water use. Why is water use so large? No data reported on internal assumptions

Example 2: Computer recycling in Delhi Article published in peer-reviewed refereed journal: Environmental Impact Assessment Review (2005) Looks into the question in informal computer recycling Estimates income due to selling materials recovered in computer recycling

Example 2: Computer recycling in Delhi Assumes that one computer has 7 grams of gold, about $100 per unit (price =$18,000/kg) Consistency check 1: World Gold Council estimates 200,000 kg of gold used in all electronics applications. If all this gold was in computers, implies upper limit of 1.4 grams per computer. Consistency check 2: other data sources indications.5 grams gold per desktop system.

LCI results for computer Large variations in results for life cycle energy to manufacture desktop system (process LCI): AuthorYearResult (MJ) MCC19938,300 Atlantic19983,400 Tekawa et al19981,000 Dreier20004,534

Conclusion 1 There’s just something wrong with those people assessing the environmental impacts of computers. But…this is not a random sample: I did detailed check because for use in my own research There were available methods to check the result (often not true!)

Conclusion 2 If one were able to check the data, method and results, serious flaws would turn up in research results in many fields.

Fraud vs. mistake – different issues, peer review intended towards latter, not former. But many common points. But, if essentially only results are reported, how to check for mistakes or fraud? With external information, mistakes in LCAs were found, but internally consistent.

Making (and learning from) mistakes is part of the process of discovery But… is the peer review process ensuring that we, as a community learn from our mistakes? Personal opinion: peer review makes a big difference, but far from foolproof.

Trends in journal articles Moore’s Law for journals: number of scientific journals doubles every years More articles and longer How to check properly when people are writing more and have more articles to review?

Why should you care? Truth, justice and the scientific way High chance no one will find mistake (reviewers have limited time to check), but if a reader later does…. Many practical skills/tools to make your research better.

But, what’s going wrong? Lack of consistency check when surprising results came up Trying to do too much (e.g. IPU estimated consumption and emissions of over 50 substances) Insufficient reporting of internal structure of studies Little comparison of data or final results with existing work

How to make it right? If LCA is going to become as widely used and accepted as it needs to be, need to do it right. Look for inspiration from the scientific method

What is the scientific method? According to Wikipedia: Define the question Gather information and resources Form hypothesis Perform experiment and collect data Analyze data Interpret data and draw conclusions that serve as a starting point for new hypotheses Publish results

Verification We have definition of true answer of LCI, but no practical method to obtain (cannot get data for all processes) But there are tools to check data and overall results: 1. Mass balance 2. Connecting micro-results with macro- sums 3. Data source/method cross check

Specific course objectives To be able to identify the important processes in an LCA (connect to problems, beginning and after assessment) Critique and compare data sources Know where to find data sources for process and EIO-LCA, and integrate them in methods Be able to execute a hybrid LCA Recognize different kinds of uncertainties, and be able to estimate for some Be able to critique and compare different impact assessment methods

MATLAB, Linear Algebra Who has had a course, or exposure? Important concepts: –Matrix math –Inverses –See links on website (e.g., wikipedia) –Get book/study guide if needed Can you “solve” X = [I-A] -1 * Y using MATLAB, given A and Y?

EIO-LCA Matlab Environment Look in “About the model” section Links to zip file EIOLCA model Need MATLAB (in clusters, offices?) Can install on own computer (1GB download!) Need student ID to run (username)

“About the Model” Page -> Data Sources Get familiar with MATLAB and the EIO- LCA environment by Thursday. Read documentation (same page) Sections 1, 2, 3 (basically first 15 pp).