Variability of Arctic Cloudiness from Satellite and Surface Data Sets University of Washington Applied Physics Laboratory Polar Science Center Axel J.

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Presentation transcript:

Variability of Arctic Cloudiness from Satellite and Surface Data Sets University of Washington Applied Physics Laboratory Polar Science Center Axel J. Schweiger, Jeff Key 1, Xuanji Wang 1, Jinlun Zhang, Ron Lindsay 1) University of Wisconsin, SSEC

Questions: What is the variability of clouds over the Arctic Seas? Association with atm. circulation How does this variability impact sea ice?

Time Series of Cloud Fraction from TOVS Path-P and Surface Observations NP stations March 90Sept. 90 Schweiger et. al 1999

Spatial Variability Mean Seasonal Cloud Fraction Winter DJF Summer JJA 50% 90%

Climatology: Huschke, 1969 Canadian Arctic

TOVS Path-P Cloud Trends (Ocean north of 60N) Winter DJF Spring MAM - 5%/decade+ 5%/decade

TOVS and APP Trends (Ocean N of 60N) Winter DJF Spring MAM

TOVS Path-P and APP Trends Summer JJA Fall SON

NP Surface Obs: Winter DJF Spring MAM 3-year Running Mean See also Makshtas et al. 1999

ERA-40 and TOVS Cloud Winter (DJF)

Decadal Trends in Path-P Clouds Spring MAM +16% Winter DJF -16%

Circulation changes and Clouds Spring MAM -3 mb/Decade Change in SLP Spring MAM +16%/ Decade Change in Cloud Fraction

Changes in Cloud Fraction and Winds in Spring (MAM) Change in meridional component of thermal wind (Francis et al. subm.) 2 ms -1 /dec +15%/ Decade Change in Cloud Fraction

Changes in P-E (TOVS) cm/month From Groves and Francis, 2002 Winter DJF -16% Nov-May 1998/90 – 1989/80

Surface Air Temperature

Surface Temperature Trend Winter (DJA) from IABP Cloud Fraction -16% Surface Air Temperature Trend

Correlation of Cloud Fraction with northern annular mode (NAM) Spring MAM Summer JJA R >0.6

Downwelling fluxes from TOVS at SHEBA SW FluxLW Flux RMS: 22 Wm -2 RMS: 20 Wm -2 Measured Flux

Trends in Fluxes Spring (MAM) ~+10 Wm -2 /Decade LWSW ~-10 Wm -2 /Decade

Mean Ice Thickness Variable vs. Mean SW fluxes

Effect of SW radiation on Ice Thickness Decrease in Ice Thickness SW Cloud Effect on Ice Thickness

Mean Ice Thickness Variable Tair (Control) vs. Mean Tair

Mean Ice Thickness Variable Tair - Mean Tair Sept 1991 Sep 1998

Conclusions Over the Arctic Ocean cloudiness in winter has decreased by 5%/decade Spring cloudiness has increased by about 5%/decade Cloud fraction from two different satellite-derived data sets show similar trends in cloudiness (though questions about winter remain) Strong regional variations exist Spring increase in cloudiness appears to be associated with changes in circulation Spring/Summer cloudiness is strongly associated with NAM Effect of clouds trends on SW/LW fluxes in spring time nearly cancel. Winter time LW decreased by about 2 Wm-2/Decade Effect of SW/Thermal forcing changes are relatively small over the period but shows strong regional variations

Downwelling Fluxes Spring (MAM) SW -3.5 Wm -2 /decade LW +4.8 Wm -2 /decade

Downwelling Fluxes Winter (DJF) LW -2 Wm -2 /decade

Clouds in GCMs, 2xCO 2 Summer (April- Sept.) Winter (Oct.- Mar.)

Comparison with Climatology: Path-P, ISCCP-D2, Hahn (1995) (N80)

Trends?

TOVS Path-P Data Set Temperature, Humidity Profiles, Cloud- Fraction, Height, Surface Parameters from TOVS using 3I algorithm 100 km, daily resolution (2001) Available from NSIDC Schweiger et al (JGR, Sheba Issue)